UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

So just avoiding your "bad omen" but well short of the "good soft target".  I think it's more consistent with a national score around 5% than the higher ones in some polls.

I think the Lib Dems ought to be disappointed, losing their deposit, being beaten by the Greens and only just avoiding being beaten by Reform UK, though I think they didn't try very hard.

[CumbrianLefty]

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.

And it has been claimed quite reliably that a significant number of postal votes went astray there - as with a contest in Andover with a sub-10% turnout despite it being quite keenly fought between the Tories and LibDems (the latter won)

[Blair]

Postal services have also been quite bad recently even on non strike days.

I enjoyed watching a certain political commentator say that the by election shows Labour will only be a minority Government- only to be told that it matches the prediction in the MRP poll.

Their response? ‘Well you can’t use by elections to predict the elections’.

 

[CumbrianLefty]

Postal services have also been quite bad recently even on non strike days.

I enjoyed watching a certain political commentator say that the by election shows Labour will only be a minority Government- only to be told that it matches the prediction in the MRP poll.

Their response? ‘Well you can’t use by elections to predict the elections’.

Are they a "senior political writer" at the Independent?

[Torrain]

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

So just avoiding your "bad omen" but well short of the "good soft target".  I think it's more consistent with a national score around 5% than the higher ones in some polls.

I think the Lib Dems ought to be disappointed, losing their deposit, being beaten by the Greens and only just avoiding being beaten by Reform UK, though I think they didn't try very hard.

Yeah - a resoundingly meh result for Reform. Although I’m vaguely impressed that they managed to get *exactly the same percentage* that they got in 2019.

On the Lib Dems, I wonder whether they’ve just taken their informal non-aggression thing with Labour as an excuse to sit this one out. Odds are there will be more plausible seats to target at some point next year, if one of Afriye, Hancock, Dorries etc ends up standing down early.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.

And it has been claimed quite reliably that a significant number of postal votes went astray there - as with a contest in Andover with a sub-10% turnout despite it being quite keenly fought between the Tories and LibDems (the latter won)

I wonder whether the latter ends up in an Election Court? Obviously the former won't as the outcome was rather lopsided, but...

[MaxQue]

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.

So just avoiding your "bad omen" but well short of the "good soft target".  I think it's more consistent with a national score around 5% than the higher ones in some polls.

I think the Lib Dems ought to be disappointed, losing their deposit, being beaten by the Greens and only just avoiding being beaten by Reform UK, though I think they didn't try very hard.

Yeah - a resoundingly meh result for Reform. Although I’m vaguely impressed that they managed to get *exactly the same percentage* that they got in 2019.

On the Lib Dems, I wonder whether they’ve just taken their informal non-aggression thing with Labour as an excuse to sit this one out. Odds are there will be more plausible seats to target at some point next year, if one of Afriye, Hancock, Dorries etc ends up standing down early.

The LD actually polled better last night than in both 2015 and 2017. It's just that hopeless for them. They had candidates in all wards of the constituency last May and their best result was 6%.

[JimJamUK]

Labour and Greens will be moderately pleased.

Probably their best by-election result this Parliament, which given their vote went up 1.6% to 4.3%, is pretty faint praise. So far both the Greens and Reform look like paper tigers judging by the by-elections this Parliament, which will not be good news for them when we get the ‘national tactical vote’ squeeze on minor parties come the general election. The Greens can still hope for a by-election in a safe Labour seat where they have a local presence, I’m not sure where Reform would be able to position themselves as a serious challengers to the Tories?

[icc]

As you presumably know there was a council by-election in Wigan yesterday with a turnout of 5.3%; Britain Elects suggests this may be a record low.

And it has been claimed quite reliably that a significant number of postal votes went astray there - as with a contest in Andover with a sub-10% turnout despite it being quite keenly fought between the Tories and LibDems (the latter won)

I wonder whether the latter ends up in an Election Court? Obviously the former won't as the outcome was rather lopsided, but...

The margins weren't all that different in terms of raw votes (which, after all, is what matters here).

Both seats are up again in May anyway, and in neither case is the composition of the council meaningfully affected, so I'd be surprised if anyone bothered with a petition.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that one of the wards in question (the Wigan one) is being effectively abolished (or carved up at least) come next May's all-out elections on new boundaries anyway.

[YL]

Labour and Greens will be moderately pleased.

Probably their best by-election result this Parliament, which given their vote went up 1.6% to 4.3%, is pretty faint praise. So far both the Greens and Reform look like paper tigers judging by the by-elections this Parliament, which will not be good news for them when we get the ‘national tactical vote’ squeeze on minor parties come the general election. The Greens can still hope for a by-election in a safe Labour seat where they have a local presence, I’m not sure where Reform would be able to position themselves as a serious challengers to the Tories?

Somewhere safe enough that Labour are unlikely to seriously challenge and so Brexity that that is still a problem for the Lib Dems?  Gavin Williamson's seat might be a candidate, if he were to stand down for some reason.

Of course, we've already had a by-election this Parliament somewhere a bit like that (Old Bexley & Sidcup) and they only got 6.6%.

[JimJamUK]

Somewhere safe enough that Labour are unlikely to seriously challenge and so Brexity that that is still a problem for the Lib Dems?  Gavin Williamson's seat might be a candidate, if he were to stand down for some reason.

Of course, we've already had a by-election this Parliament somewhere a bit like that (Old Bexley & Sidcup) and they only got 6.6%.

South Staffordshire is a good one, probably a few others in the West Midlands along with Essex and the rural East/East Midlands, but on current polling you’d imagine Labour would fancy their chances in a lot of pretty safe Leave voting seats, and if not the Lib Dems would be happy to rev up the by-election machine and milk local issues as was the case in North Shropshire. And if Reform were able to make a decent stab at a seat, then Labour or the Lib Dem’s would probably put in some effort to win it on a split right wing vote.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course, we've already had a by-election this Parliament somewhere a bit like that (Old Bexley & Sidcup) and they only got 6.6%.

Still by some distance their best byelection showing so far - and it did come at the very cusp of Tory support starting to fall off the proverbial cliff.

[tomhguy]

I mean they only managed to get 6.6% despite getting their party leader to stand in the seat, so it's not exactly even then a really good showing for how the party would perform in general across the whole country

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

Cameron offering a referendum was arguably the trigger for the UKIP surge, ironic as that may be. The Carswell and Reckless defections were after the UKIP 'victory' in the European elections (which probably has to be considered UKIP's peak).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

Cameron offering a referendum was arguably the trigger for the UKIP surge, ironic as that may be. The Carswell and Reckless defections were after the UKIP 'victory' in the European elections (which probably has to be considered UKIP's peak).

Yes but it's worth noting that UKIP were never able to clinch a by election win, even with farage and peak polling, without a local MP defecting first.

[JimJamUK]

FWIW the projected national share was 22% for UKIP in the 2013 local elections, but only 17% in 2014 despite the concurrent European elections. Their by-election performances were usually very good (Heywood and Middleton standing out as an almost ‘shock’ gain) but just weren’t in the right seats for a party with a fairly broad voter base on ~20% of the national vote.

[Cassius]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

Cameron offering a referendum was arguably the trigger for the UKIP surge, ironic as that may be. The Carswell and Reckless defections were after the UKIP 'victory' in the European elections (which probably has to be considered UKIP's peak).

The UKIP surge was actually well under way in 2012, with them getting into double digits on a regular basis by the end of the year and scoring well at by-elections (12% in Middlesbrough, 15% in Corby and 22% in Rotherham). Personally I’m a believer in the theory (which I think George Osborne has also advanced) that one of the major triggers for the rise of UKIP wasn’t, in fact, Europe, but instead same-sex marriage, which was regularly in the headlines throughout 2012 and pissed off a lot of traditional Tory supporters. Obviously it wasn’t the only factor (2012 was probably the Coalition’s worst year, with it spinning its wheels in the mud amidst a stagnant economy and legislative failures), but I think it was a key factor that divided Cameron (and Miliband for that matter, although for him it was less of a problem) from a lot of ‘conservative with a small c’ older and middle aged voters for whom UKIP provided a convenient receptacle of protest (which of course was a role that the Lib Dem’s could no longer fulfil).

[Alcibiades]

Maybe you need a repeat of Carswell or Reckless?

Cameron offering a referendum was arguably the trigger for the UKIP surge, ironic as that may be. The Carswell and Reckless defections were after the UKIP 'victory' in the European elections (which probably has to be considered UKIP's peak).

The UKIP surge was actually well under way in 2012, with them getting into double digits on a regular basis by the end of the year and scoring well at by-elections (12% in Middlesbrough, 15% in Corby and 22% in Rotherham). Personally I’m a believer in the theory (which I think George Osborne has also advanced) that one of the major triggers for the rise of UKIP wasn’t, in fact, Europe, but instead same-sex marriage, which was regularly in the headlines throughout 2012 and pissed off a lot of traditional Tory supporters. Obviously it wasn’t the only factor (2012 was probably the Coalition’s worst year, with it spinning its wheels in the mud amidst a stagnant economy and legislative failures), but I think it was a key factor that divided Cameron (and Miliband for that matter, although for him it was less of a problem) from a lot of ‘conservative with a small c’ older and middle aged voters for whom UKIP provided a convenient receptacle of protest (which of course was a role that the Lib Dem’s could no longer fulfil).

This is certainly an interesting theory, but I think it’s complicated by the fact that this period also saw UKIP’s support shift from its traditional, but much smaller base, of disaffected right-wing Tories in the Telegraph-reading Home Counties to postindustrial towns in what would later be termed the “Red Wall”, as suggested by your list of by-election successes. On the face of it, this would seem to imply that immigration (importantly as distinct from ‘Europe’ as whole though, which was generally more of a niche obsession of the aforementioned Telegraph-reading classes until shortly before 2016) was a more salient factor than same-sex marriage, I think.

[JimJamUK]

The UKIP surge was actually well under way in 2012, with them getting into double digits on a regular basis by the end of the year and scoring well at by-elections (12% in Middlesbrough, 15% in Corby and 22% in Rotherham). Personally I’m a believer in the theory (which I think George Osborne has also advanced) that one of the major triggers for the rise of UKIP wasn’t, in fact, Europe, but instead same-sex marriage, which was regularly in the headlines throughout 2012 and pissed off a lot of traditional Tory supporters. Obviously it wasn’t the only factor (2012 was probably the Coalition’s worst year, with it spinning its wheels in the mud amidst a stagnant economy and legislative failures), but I think it was a key factor that divided Cameron (and Miliband for that matter, although for him it was less of a problem) from a lot of ‘conservative with a small c’ older and middle aged voters for whom UKIP provided a convenient receptacle of protest (which of course was a role that the Lib Dem’s could no longer fulfil).

I’m sceptical. Gay marriage was never an issue that a large number of people cared out, and once you narrow it down to people both strongly against and who had voted Conservative in 2010 (less correlation than you might expect), you’re talking about a pretty small group. I can believe for that small group it might have worked as a signal that the Conservative Party was no longer conservative, but for the vast majority of switchers there were much more important issues at play (the EU, immigration, the economy, no Lib Dem/BNP protest option etc).

[YL]

I think Cameron's attempts to "modernise" the Tory Party were a significant factor in UKIP's appeal to previously Tory voters, and that does include same sex marriage as well as environmental issues.  But I'd agree that they were a fairly small part of UKIP's appeal overall.

The unavailability of the Lib Dems for protest purposes in the Coalition years is, I think, underrated as a factor, because people underestimate the extent to which UKIP's and the pre-Coalition Lib Dems' appeal overlapped; they genuinely didn't have much in common ideologically, but that's not the same thing.

(Is the return of the Lib Dem by-election surge making it harder for Reform UK to make an impact?  I'm not convinced; only three by-elections in this Parliament have had strong Lib Dem performances, which leaves plenty of opportunities for Reform UK.)

[CumbrianLefty]

Continued radio silence on West Lancs, so with parliament breaking up for Xmas today a byelection isn't going to happen until February (at the earliest)

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think Cameron's attempts to "modernise" the Tory Party were a significant factor in UKIP's appeal to previously Tory voters, and that does include same sex marriage as well as environmental issues.  But I'd agree that they were a fairly small part of UKIP's appeal overall.

The unavailability of the Lib Dems for protest purposes in the Coalition years is, I think, underrated as a factor, because people underestimate the extent to which UKIP's and the pre-Coalition Lib Dems' appeal overlapped; they genuinely didn't have much in common ideologically, but that's not the same thing.

(Is the return of the Lib Dem by-election surge making it harder for Reform UK to make an impact?  I'm not convinced; only three by-elections in this Parliament have had strong Lib Dem performances, which leaves plenty of opportunities for Reform UK.)

Also, Lib Dem campaigning efforts have tended to be either actively liberal, pro-European, or NIMBYism above all else. Only the latter has much appeal to the cranks who were the LD/UKIP base and even for them it wasn't the big issue.

[CumbrianLefty]

Looking like West Lancashire will go to the polls on February 9th.