UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

The briefing from Tory "sources" last night is especially interesting given that the "line" just earlier this week was that Wakefield was lost but they had a real chance of holding T&H.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect the main issue is the numerical majority vs. percentage majority - it's absurd, but a lot of MPs and political insiders still tend to think in terms of the former, even though it's really not that helpful to do so. But 'we're going to get hammered' is quite a shift in briefing from a few days ago: perhaps a different source, perhaps it's just a hard constituency to get a handle on, perhaps a matter of different briefing games to different journalists, I don't know.

[YL]

Andrew Teale's previews

[Blair]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

[Oryxslayer]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

Given all that has happened I wouldn't be surprised if we end up shocked by both margins.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

There's a story in the i suggesting that the Tories may have pulled out as of early this morning.

[Blair]

I suspect the main issue is the numerical majority vs. percentage majority - it's absurd, but a lot of MPs and political insiders still tend to think in terms of the former, even though it's really not that helpful to do so. But 'we're going to get hammered' is quite a shift in briefing from a few days ago: perhaps a different source, perhaps it's just a hard constituency to get a handle on, perhaps a matter of different briefing games to different journalists, I don't know.

I prefer the forever war method of finding any way to prove the result is actually bad for the leadership.

‘If you only count the votes in wards beginning with W you can see Brown/Miliband/Corbyn/Starmer are actually going backwards compared to the result in 1997.’

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You do sometimes get a last minute stampede effect with Liberal challenges in by-elections, so we shall see...

[icc]

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

There's a story in the i suggesting that the Tories may have pulled out as of early this morning.

What would be the point of pulling out? Not like they're going to send activists from Devon up to Wakefield ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?

Very plausible.  Even in 1997 the Tories won Christchurch back.

Yes, it's the 'free hit' issue. You can quite happily vote against the a government that you have come to dislike for this or that reason without risking letting in a government led by those awful Labour chappies. Been a definite phenomenon since the late 1950s.

[JimJamUK]

Yes, it's the 'free hit' issue. You can quite happily vote against the a government that you have come to dislike for this or that reason without risking letting in a government led by those awful Labour chappies. Been a definite phenomenon since the late 1950s.

It doesn’t even require actively voting against. The ~25% of the electorate who vote in general elections but don’t vote after being bombarded by the Lib Dems in a by-election during an unpopular Conservative government are generally not a hoard of closet Lib Dems.

[Blair]

I love that someone reported the liberals saying ‘we’re doing well in towns, the Tories are doing well in the rural parts’- yes this is like telling us water is wet.

[Torrain]

Lib Dems now “cautiously optimistic” according to Sky. They’ve done a 180^o on expectations management in just under an hour, so either the numbers look pretty good, or they’re just messing with us.

[JerryArkansas]

Lib Dems now “cautiously optimistic” according to Sky. They’ve done a 180^o on expectations management in just under an hour, so either the numbers look pretty good, or they’re just messing with us.

They could be getting such good boxes in town that they assume the country ones wont likley swing it.

[Torrain]

Sounds like Labour’s going to lose their deposit in T&H, which (ironically) bodes very well for the opposition. Huge tactical vote if true.

As reference, Labour lost their deposit in Chesham and Amersham (getting 1.6%), but held it in North Shropshire (getting 9.7%).

[YL]

Some rumours Labour may have lost their deposit in T & H, which would be a very good sign for the Lib Dems.  (But no doubt will be spun by some as terrible news for Starmer.)

Meanwhile what rumours I’m seeing from Wakefield suggest a comfortable Labour win.

[Torrain]

Lib Dems now “cautiously optimistic” according to Sky. They’ve done a 180^o on expectations management in just under an hour, so either the numbers look pretty good, or they’re just messing with us.

They could be getting such good boxes in town that they assume the country ones wont likley swing it.

Always a possibility. But both Tory and Lib Dem sources are now saying that the towns have a significant Lib Dem lead, and the rural spots are drawing close to even.

I never trust the bluster of a Lib Dem leaflet, or a blade comment in a debate. But on election night? As soon as you hear them get smug, it tends to be all over…

[YL]

Talk of a double digit margin for the LDs in T & H

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the rural polling districts are close then it isn't going to be close.

[DINGO Joe]

When computing the swing for T&H is it done from the difference between 1st and 2nd in the prior election or from the difference between Con and LD in said election?

[YL]

When computing the swing for T&H is it done from the difference between 1st and 2nd in the prior election or from the difference between Con and LD in said election?

The latter.

[JerryArkansas]

Wonder how big the swing will be if the talks of double digit win are true?  Still don't think they'll rival what they pulled in Bermondsey in 83 but it could be bigger than Christchurch. 

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Turnout in Wakefield is 39.1%.

[YL]

Wonder how big the swing will be if the talks of double digit win are true?  Still don't think they'll rival what they pulled in Bermondsey in 83 but it could be bigger than Christchurch. 

To beat the Christchurch record the lead would need to be nearly 25 percentage points.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Tiverton and Honiton turnout is 52.0%.