UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, whereas North Shropshire and Tiverton & Honiton fall much more obviously into the category of usually monstrously safe seats where a by-election would traditionally have always entailed the risk of slipping on a Liberal banana-skin. The significance of the North Shropshire result, of course, is that it confirmed that as both memories of the Coalition and the electoral salience of Brexit have faded, this remains true in such places.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Ed Davey isn't someone who I am much of a fan of, but he is the ideal Lib Dem leader for by-elections such as North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. Compare him to the other leaders or plausible leaders since 2015 - Swinson (fanatical fbper), Farron (disaster due to unconventional religious views), Cable (too much associated with the Coalition and Remain), Moran (would have been an idol of liberal-left Twitter, which means that she would have been a disaster as leader), Gina Miller (yes, I recall that this person was put forward as a potential leader of the Lib Dems or a similar outfit a few years prior). Davey is both inoffensive enough and someone who has been around the block enough in a political sense to do well in these kinds of contests. Of course, by this I mean that no one gives much of a crap about him or has even heard of him. Someone like Moran would have been tabloid gossip, and it would have cost the Lib Dems in electoral terms.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

Wait farmers support protectionism in the UK? Any reason this is so different than in the US?

[JimJamUK]

Wait farmers support protectionism in the UK? Any reason this is so different than in the US?

Among other reasons the UK has a lot more environmental regulation than the US so its not price competitive and therefore it’s not really an export based industry. Rather, it’s quality/made in the UK that forms it’s main appeal. The exports that were done were largely to the EU, which for mainland Britain has resulted in a tough situation for many farmers since Brexit.

[MaxQue]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

Wait farmers support protectionism in the UK? Any reason this is so different than in the US?

The exact same reason in fact. US ones want free trade to flood UK with their products, UK ones don't want free trade so they are not flooded with US products.

[Coldstream]

I spent the day canvassing in Wakefield for Labour. Feels pretty amazing, those who switched in 2019 are coming back almost unanimously (and with some fervour) previous Tories are either not voting or protest voting (some for us) to get Boris Johnson out. The idea that if the Tories take a beating in Wakefield it could be the end of Johnson has cut through way more than I thought it would. We can’t be complacent, but I’ve canvassed in places that we’ve won that have felt worse than Wakefield does atm.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If one wishes for a feel of what farmers think and feel then there is in fact an internet forum for British farmers that has an active politics board on it.

which forum ?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tbh I just love the fact that the liberal democrat ostensibly a pro-free trade party is now mainly getting in the news for winning rural seats at least partialy due to rural resentment of the goverment not being protectionist enough for Farmers.

The 2000s called, they wanted their protest vote Lib Dem electorate back.

[Tintrlvr]

Ed Davey isn't someone who I am much of a fan of, but he is the ideal Lib Dem leader for by-elections such as North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton. Compare him to the other leaders or plausible leaders since 2015 - Swinson (fanatical fbper), Farron (disaster due to unconventional religious views), Cable (too much associated with the Coalition and Remain), Moran (would have been an idol of liberal-left Twitter, which means that she would have been a disaster as leader), Gina Miller (yes, I recall that this person was put forward as a potential leader of the Lib Dems or a similar outfit a few years prior). Davey is both inoffensive enough and someone who has been around the block enough in a political sense to do well in these kinds of contests. Of course, by this I mean that no one gives much of a crap about him or has even heard of him. Someone like Moran would have been tabloid gossip, and it would have cost the Lib Dems in electoral terms.

Daisy Cooper would have been a plausible alternative. But, yes, Davey's anonymity is an asset in this context. I'm not sure it's as much of an asset in a general election, where it's better for the leader to be a big personality (and Moran might be a better GE leader overall, albeit not in North Shropshire or Tiverton and Honiton!)

[CumbrianLefty]

It was too soon for Cooper in 2020, I agree it is hers to lose next time round though.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533838241945862144?s=20

Strangely enough, another constituency poll of the Wakefield electorate.

[JimJamUK]

FWIW, here's the bands of those 2 polls:

Lab - 48-56%
Con - 28-33%
Green - 2-8%
LD - 2-7%
Ref - 3-3%
Ind - 0-3%
YP - 0-1%
BF - 0-1%

The Survation poll, despite having more parties in their poll, has the major 2 parties noticeably higher. Conversely, the Greens and Lib Dems are much lower (I suspect the truth is an average of the 2 polls). Negligible support for the minor parties, though the indie gets 3%.

[Tintrlvr]

Well, I think today’s events have to be seen as the worst possible outcome for the Tories as far as these two by-elections go. Incidentally, has either Tory candidate staked out their own position?

[afleitch]

FWIW, here's the bands of those 2 polls:

Lab - 48-56%
Con - 28-33%
Green - 2-8%
LD - 2-7%
Ref - 3-3%
Ind - 0-3%
YP - 0-1%
BF - 0-1%

The Labour range is within the 1987-2001% share they obtained with Hinchcliffe (and at the higher end is closer to the 1997 share). The Tory range falls that which is achieved between 1997 and 2005.

So Labour actually getting that sort of vote share in a by-election is more than just 'winning back' red wall marginal seats but getting an emphatic 'endorsement.'

[Хahar 🤔]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

According to "Armchair Critic" (who will know) in another place, they've selected Nadeem Ahmed.

What is his religious background? This is important.

[Blair]

Usual caveats but there is genuine talk of people switching to Labour with some enthusiasm and also of the Conservative villages basically going on strike.

The interesting thing is that the norm for the last what 15 years has been for Labour to struggle in these sort of by-elections e.g Oldham, Rotherham.

[EastAnglianLefty]

FWIW, here's the bands of those 2 polls:

Lab - 48-56%
Con - 28-33%
Green - 2-8%
LD - 2-7%
Ref - 3-3%
Ind - 0-3%
YP - 0-1%
BF - 0-1%

The Labour range is within the 1987-2001% share they obtained with Hinchcliffe (and at the higher end is closer to the 1997 share). The Tory range falls that which is achieved between 1997 and 2005.

So Labour actually getting that sort of vote share in a by-election is more than just 'winning back' red wall marginal seats but getting an emphatic 'endorsement.'

Though worth noting that the 1997-2010 boundaries were a tiny bit more favourable to the Tories, as rather than Horbury and Ossett they had marginal-but-Tory-inclined Denby Dale and securely Tory Kirkburton.

[Joe Republic]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

[YL]

According to "Armchair Critic" (who will know) in another place, they've selected Nadeem Ahmed.

What is his religious background? This is important.

Muslim I believe, but I don't know beyond that.  The previous MP is from an Ahmadiyya background.

[YL]

Usual caveats but there is genuine talk of people switching to Labour with some enthusiasm and also of the Conservative villages basically going on strike.

The interesting thing is that the norm for the last what 15 years has been for Labour to struggle in these sort of by-elections e.g Oldham, Rotherham.

I'm not sure which Oldham by-election you're referring to.  Oldham West & Royton 2015 was widely trailed as a bad performance (which is perhaps what you're remembering) but was actually a pretty respectable result, and Oldham East & Saddleworth 2011 wasn't that bad either (especially considering the circumstances).  The real near disaster in a Greater Manchester by-election was Heywood & Middleton 2014, which perhaps was a warning that the seat, which was lost in 2019, could be vulnerable.

I wouldn't consider Tory-held Wakefield to be very comparable to these, anyway.

[YL]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

I think it's at least moderately likely that we get one from Survation.

Interestingly the Lib Dems haven't leaked anything yet (unless the tweet I mentioned in a previous post counts).

[CumbrianLefty]

Usual caveats but there is genuine talk of people switching to Labour with some enthusiasm and also of the Conservative villages basically going on strike.

The interesting thing is that the norm for the last what 15 years has been for Labour to struggle in these sort of by-elections e.g Oldham, Rotherham.

I'm not sure which Oldham by-election you're referring to.  Oldham West & Royton 2015 was widely trailed as a bad performance (which is perhaps what you're remembering) but was actually a pretty respectable result, and Oldham East & Saddleworth 2011 wasn't that bad either (especially considering the circumstances).  The real near disaster in a Greater Manchester by-election was Heywood & Middleton 2014, which perhaps was a warning that the seat, which was lost in 2019, could be vulnerable.

I wouldn't consider Tory-held Wakefield to be very comparable to these, anyway.

Rotherham in 2012 wasn't at all bad given the wider circumstances, either (and its mostly forgotten now, but it was one of *the* top UKIP targets in 2015)

[Tintrlvr]

Likelihood of a T&H poll?  It's nice to see not one but two (so far) confirming what we already suspected about Wakefield, but let's see where the real fun is getting started…

I think it's at least moderately likely that we get one from Survation.

Interestingly the Lib Dems haven't leaked anything yet (unless the tweet I mentioned in a previous post counts).

It’s a bit early for a Lib Dem poll leak; they usually like to wait until the last week. Of course, the widespread expectation that they will win is probably not viewed as a positive inside Lib Dem HQ.

[JimJamUK]

Not that it matters but the Wakefield Green candidate seems a bit of a car crash. That 8% poll will probably be well off the mark.