UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

How does Galloway get people to staff his campagin ?

He has a loyal clique of mainly Muslim and Tankie voters, and is then despised by everyone else.

[Torrain]

So, the by-elections seem to be going well for the Government…

Tiverton and Honiton by-election: Tory candidate ‘told not to speak to media because of fear of partygate questions’

But the former headteacher is said to have been told not to speak to press – because CCHQ think she will struggle to deal with questions about Boris Johnson’s lockdown lawbreaking.

One local Tory says that anger about Downing Street shindogs is now so widespread in the rural Devon constituency that it has been decided Ms Hurford’s best chance of victory is to remain largely silent and hope the party’s current 24,000 majority carries her to victory.

The result is that Ms Hurford has been all but invisible since being selected as the Tories’ candidate on Monday. Requests to speak to her by The Independent went firstly unanswered and were then declined with no reason given.

The order for silence is said to have even been extended to local Conservative councillors who have been informally told not to discuss the by-election with media.

Asked in a WhatsApp message if such an instruction had been given, one councillor Colin Slade replied: “I couldn’t possibly comment!”

Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/tiverton-honiton-byelection-ben-bradshaw-b2088792.html

[Blair]

Early days and all but I’m struggling to see any sort of Conservative campaign in Wakefield- other than Dowden tweeting about hedges. I know it’s often much more under the radar with the Tories but there’s nothing really they can do- there isn’t a one big employer in the seat, there aren’t much community/racial politics for them to shake up.

I guess it will just be Facebook posts about energy bills.

[YL]

Regarding Tiverton & Honiton, the only non-Conservative representation any of it has had since 1885 was between a 1923 by-election in the then Tiverton constituency which was won by a Liberal and the 1924 General Election.  In the 1923 General Election the by-election winner held Tiverton by 3 votes.  In particular, those parts which were in Honiton then have been continuously blue for nearly 140 years, as has most of the current East Devon constituency, which is actually the main successor to the pre-1997 Honiton.

If you want to know ridiculous levels of detail of the history of constituency boundaries since 1885, then see the UK Parliamentary Constituencies project.  (The link is to the Devon page, but quite a large part of England is covered).

[Blair]

This is meme worthy- including the hilarious cameo from the candidate.  No subtitles, lots of background noise and banging on about a referendum that happened 7 years ago.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1531676622813908998

[Blair]

I might be imagining it but it's interesting that a fair few Conservative commentators (who are largely anti-Boris) seem to think they'll win Tiverton.

The only difference to Wakefield & Shropshire is that the reason for the resignation was rather hilarious & also short lived, and they seem to have at least have a local candidate. But the political picture looks a lot worse than it did in late December...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It isn't impossible - things only fell apart for them in North Shropshire in the last week or so by most accounts: they might still have lost as the circumstances were really foul and the campaign a shocker, but it would have been relatively tight - but I think at this stage it would surely be too early to be sure. I suppose the thinking is that they can buy their way to a win as the candidate is local? I don't know.

[CityofSinners]

I think the North Shropshire result has somewhat skewed our perceptions. Both North Shropshire and Tiverton are very conservative seats.
The default assumption should be that tories win seats like this. Even with everything going on, they have a decent shot.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It isn't impossible - things only fell apart for them in North Shropshire in the last week or so by most accounts: they might still have lost as the circumstances were really foul and the campaign a shocker, but it would have been relatively tight - but I think at this stage it would surely be too early to be sure. I suppose the thinking is that they can buy their way to a win as the candidate is local? I don't know.

Shouldn't it be easy enough for the Liberal Democrats to fundraise the money they need to compete ?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1533135353472815113?s=20&t=GGXAsJw...

Obvious disclaimer about the accuracy constituency polls. However, lol just more evidence why the Tories already threw the towel.

[Blair]

If this is the result there will be the usual idiots in Labour going on about vote share- as with all THIGMOO election results you find any metric to prove it's actually a bad result for your opponent*- see the claims that Bexley was a bad result, despite a swing & higher vote share, based on the raw vote totals. But it's a pointless comparison!

However... the main thing is the Conservative vote dropping like an absolute rock which is what happens when Governments are doing very badly & by-elections come along. Interesting that the Green vote is so high.

*The Labour right was just as bad imo.

[brucejoel99]

However... the main thing is the Conservative vote dropping like an absolute rock which is what happens when Governments are doing very badly & by-elections come along.

No, it obviously must be the Red Wall voters who've lost touch with the common man.

[JimJamUK]

The Green and Lib Dem vote looks surprisingly high (they won’t have 15% between them by election day), but mainly LOL at the Reform vote. It really should be expected given their national polling includes 1/2 the country where they didn’t stand in 2019 and they’re more overtly ‘Tory right’ now, but 3% is reaching ‘prompted name on a survey’ territory.

[Pericles]

The weird thing about that poll is Starmer was weirdly unpopular in Wakefield. In the nationwide polls it does vary a lot but that rating seems unusually low. This is just one poll and maybe the Tories are down by 20% with a sample skewed towards them.

[brucejoel99]

The Wakefield poll makes me want a Tiverton & Honiton poll. It's an even safer Tory seat than Chesham & Amersham, but if the swing is even just the same as it was there, it'll go Lib Dem. Given BoJo's unpopularity rn, I wanna see its numbers.

[YL]

The Green and Lib Dem vote looks surprisingly high (they won’t have 15% between them by election day), but mainly LOL at the Reform vote. It really should be expected given their national polling includes 1/2 the country where they didn’t stand in 2019 and they’re more overtly ‘Tory right’ now, but 3% is reaching ‘prompted name on a survey’ territory.

I don't know why they prompted for Reform UK.  They didn't prompt for the Yorkshire Party, who many expect to come third.

[YL]

The Wakefield poll makes me want a Tiverton & Honiton poll. It's an even safer Tory seat than Chesham & Amersham, but if the swing is even just the same as it was there, it'll go Lib Dem. Given BoJo's unpopularity rn, I wanna see its numbers.

North Shropshire is a better comparison than Chesham & Amersham, I think: T & H and N Shrops have a fair amount in common demographically and had similar results in 2019.  I did actually see some numbers for T & H in a tweet, but I suspect they're unweighted canvass returns and furthermore they are ridiculous.  However, I do think the Lib Dems are going to win it.

[CumbrianLefty]

The weird thing about that poll is Starmer was weirdly unpopular in Wakefield. In the nationwide polls it does vary a lot but that rating seems unusually low. This is just one poll and maybe the Tories are down by 20% with a sample skewed towards them.

All the politicians in the survey had massively negative ratings, Starmer was in mid-table.

Which does make me think it may be partly about the methodology, rather than Wakefield being much more hostile to them than the average.

[YL]

The question was "How positively or negatively do you feel about the following political figures or institutions?"

The first number is "positive" (combining "Quite" and "Very"); the second is "Neither positive nor negative" and the third is "negative" (again combining "Quite" and "Very").  "Don't know" was also an option.
Sunak 17-22-52
Johnson 23-12-60
Truss 12-26-39
Javid 14-33-39
Starmer 21-23-49
Rayner 17-25-34
Gove 10-19-55
Patel 12-18-60 (LOL)
Tice 4-24-16 (i.e., "who?")
Conservative Party 22-15-56
Labour Party 27-22-44
Wakefield Council 27-35-33

Interesting that the council scores so relatively well.

[CumbrianLefty]

I might be imagining it but it's interesting that a fair few Conservative commentators (who are largely anti-Boris) seem to think they'll win Tiverton.

The only difference to Wakefield & Shropshire is that the reason for the resignation was rather hilarious & also short lived, and they seem to have at least have a local candidate. But the political picture looks a lot worse than it did in late December...

They are far from infallible of course, but bookies have the LibDems as low as 2/9 on to win there. So if they really believe that, they know what to do.....

[Pericles]

I might be imagining it but it's interesting that a fair few Conservative commentators (who are largely anti-Boris) seem to think they'll win Tiverton.

The only difference to Wakefield & Shropshire is that the reason for the resignation was rather hilarious & also short lived, and they seem to have at least have a local candidate. But the political picture looks a lot worse than it did in late December...

Tory MPs would take a win in Tiverton as a relief so that's a minor point about why the rebels should strike now.

[YL]

Here's a list of by-elections since 1970 which meet the following conditions:

- Conservatives in government and the Lib Dems not
- Conservative held seat hopeless for Labour (this is of course a subjective judgement, but I don't think the edge cases change the picture much)
- Evidence of a genuine campaign from the Lib Dems or their predecessors (taken as a vote share of at least 20%)

Tiverton & Honiton 2022 - ?
North Shropshire 2021 - Lib Dem gain
Chesham & Amersham 2021 - Lib Dem gain
Brecon & Radnorshire 2019 - Lib Dem gain
Richmond Park 2016 - Lib Dem gain [1]
Witney 2016 - Con hold
Littleborough & Saddleworth 1995 - Lib Dem gain [2]
Eastleigh 1994 - Lib Dem gain
Christchurch 1993 - Lib Dem gain
Newbury 1993 - Lib Dem gain
Kincardine & Deeside 1991 - Lib Dem gain
Ribble Valley 1991 - Lib Dem gain
Eastbourne 1990 - Lib Dem gain
Richmond (Yorks) 1989 - Con hold [3]
Epping Forest 1988 - Con hold [4]
Ryedale 1986 - Liberal gain
West Derbyshire 1986 - Con hold (majority 100)
South West Surrey 1984 - Con hold
Penrith & the Border 1983 - Con hold (majority 552)
Beaconsfield 1982 - Con hold [5]
Crosby 1981 - SDP gain [6]
South West Hertfordshire 1979 - Con hold [7]
Berwick upon Tweed 1973 - Liberal gain
Ripon 1973 - Liberal gain
Isle of Ely 1973 - Liberal gain
Sutton & Cheam 1973 - Liberal gain

[1] An odd by-election; technically the Tories did not contest it, but the local party supported Zac Goldsmith who had resigned his seat over Heathrow expansion and was standing as an Independent.
[2] Arguably this wasn't hopeless for Labour, and they came quite close to winning, with the Tories third.
[3] Centre vote split between separate SDP and SLD (proto Lib Dem) candidates, who got more than half the vote between them.  William Hague was the Tory winner.
[4] Like Richmond, this had both SDP and SLD candidates, but unlike Richmond they didn't have enough between them to beat the Tory winner.
[5] A real outlier, with a huge Tory majority, presumably because of the Falklands War.  Of course, the Labour candidate was one Anthony Charles Lynton Blair.
[6] Another debatable one as to whether it was hopeless for Labour, especially as they won it in 1997 and have held it or its successor ever since.  But I think in the context of the time it counts.
[7] Another outlier: the Liberals didn't even overtake Labour.  I don't know whether they really tried.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

T & H and N Shrops have a fair amount in common demographically

Strikingly similar, actually. A large agricultural element dominated by dairying and several small-but-sizeable market towns with more of an industrial history and, to an extent, present, than outsiders might assume. Those fancy carpets are made in the constituency (Axminster) and so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Shouldn't it be easy enough for the Liberal Democrats to fundraise the money they need to compete ?

They have a long history of being able to concentrate resources to extreme pitch when required.

[Blair]

Amersham was also a lot more leafy commuter belt than the other two- there’s a reason why it was mainly about planning and the dreaded ‘sprawl’ of new developments.

It’s also based on vibes but it seemed very much like the type of place where the Conservative voters would have been members of Cafod, various local civic societies and would donate to the RNLI, and so forth- the type of place John Major talked about in the 1990s as being England.