UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170208 times)
YL
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« Reply #1225 on: May 22, 2022, 06:38:03 AM »

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

According to "Armchair Critic" (who will know) in another place, they've selected Nadeem Ahmed.
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YL
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« Reply #1226 on: May 22, 2022, 05:08:04 PM »

More candidate news: in Tiverton & Honiton the Tories have selected Helen Hurford, deputy mayor of Honiton, and Labour have selected their 2019 candidate Liz Pole, while in Wakefield Akef Akbar, Tory-turned-independent councillor for Wakefield East, says he's standing as an Independent.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1227 on: May 23, 2022, 05:53:38 AM »

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1228 on: May 23, 2022, 07:11:41 AM »

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

I suspect very strongly that they will go right up to the spending limit - which for those who don't know is as high as £100,000 for by-elections; which is much higher than for constituency campaigning at a GE - to try to hang on there. It will probably be a very brutal, very nasty campaign.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1229 on: May 23, 2022, 12:43:38 PM »

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

I suspect very strongly that they will go right up to the spending limit - which for those who don't know is as high as £100,000 for by-elections; which is much higher than for constituency campaigning at a GE - to try to hang on there. It will probably be a very brutal, very nasty campaign.
What will all the money be spent on ? Flyers and online ads loose effectivness at a certain point.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1230 on: May 23, 2022, 01:04:19 PM »

What will all the money be spent on ? Flyers and online ads loose effectivness at a certain point.

Daily leaflet drops (at least after a certain point in the campaign) quite possibly produced differently for different parts of the constituency, hiring venues, various stunts (including large billboards and so on), adverts in the local media, perhaps some full-time staff for the campaign, perhaps market research and/or polling during it, that kind of thing. I never said anything about effectiveness, mind...
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Blair
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« Reply #1231 on: May 24, 2022, 03:32:53 AM »

What will all the money be spent on ? Flyers and online ads loose effectivness at a certain point.

Daily leaflet drops (at least after a certain point in the campaign) quite possibly produced differently for different parts of the constituency, hiring venues, various stunts (including large billboards and so on), adverts in the local media, perhaps some full-time staff for the campaign, perhaps market research and/or polling during it, that kind of thing. I never said anything about effectiveness, mind...

Ofc it has often cost them more to do leaflet drops as they have to pay people to do it in a lot of cases.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1232 on: May 24, 2022, 06:52:17 AM »

At least on paper, the Tory candidate for T/H looks fairly strong. I think any doubt about which of the two seats they were going to prioritise holding has been pretty much removed now.

I suspect very strongly that they will go right up to the spending limit - which for those who don't know is as high as £100,000 for by-elections; which is much higher than for constituency campaigning at a GE - to try to hang on there. It will probably be a very brutal, very nasty campaign.

Though they may struggle to make the LibDem hopeful in this one look scary.
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YL
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« Reply #1233 on: May 24, 2022, 09:58:51 AM »

Disappointingly for observers of bizarre by-election candidacies, Neil Parish is not going to stand as an Independent to get his old seat back.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1234 on: May 25, 2022, 05:02:00 AM »

Disappointingly for observers of bizarre by-election candidacies, Neil Parish is not going to stand as an Independent to get his old seat back.

And no sign thus far of Galloway (or indeed his party) in Wakefield either.

Nominations for both seats close this afternoon.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #1235 on: May 25, 2022, 07:29:56 AM »

Disappointingly for observers of bizarre by-election candidacies, Neil Parish is not going to stand as an Independent to get his old seat back.

And no sign thus far of Galloway (or indeed his party) in Wakefield either.

Nominations for both seats close this afternoon.

Galloway did not like, when Twitter labelled his account as "Russia-state affliated media".
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YL
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« Reply #1236 on: May 25, 2022, 10:55:28 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2022, 11:01:45 AM by YL »

15 candidates for Wakefield:

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative)
Akef Akbar (Ind) [1]
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance)
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance)
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony)
Jayda Fransen (Ind) [2]
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP)
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party)
Therese Hirst (English Democrats)
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party)
Simon Lightwood (Labour)
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem)
Ashley Routh (Green)
Ashlea Simon (Britain First)
Chris Walsh (Reform UK)

[1] Councillor for Wakefield East.  Elected as a Conservative but left the party in January calling Boris Johnson an "idiot".
[2] Formerly associated with Britain First, now associated with the un-registered British Freedom Party
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YL
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« Reply #1237 on: May 25, 2022, 11:51:21 AM »
« Edited: May 25, 2022, 11:57:04 AM by YL »

... and 8 candidates for Tiverton & Honiton

Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party)
Andy Foan (Reform UK)
Richard Foord (Lib Dem)
Helen Hurford (Conservative)
Liz Pole (Labour)
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain)
Ben Walker (UKIP) [1]
Gill Westcott (Green)

[1] Their chairman, not to be confused with the New Statesman/Britain Elects journalist of the same name
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Torrain
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« Reply #1238 on: May 26, 2022, 08:38:02 AM »

Pending a successful recall petition, it looks like we’re headed for that long awaited by-election in Leicester East…
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1239 on: May 26, 2022, 09:21:42 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 12:45:47 PM by CumbrianLefty »

Always possible she resigns before that, given the appeal has now failed.

(and it would probably be best if she did)

EDIT: this was posted before the subsequent developments came to light. Morally speaking perhaps she should still resign, but another way of looking at things is that if Rob Roberts (remember him?) didn't then why should she?? And yes, any resulting byelection would be a total s***show.
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Continential
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« Reply #1240 on: May 26, 2022, 09:22:14 AM »

Now this one will be interesting for sure.
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Blair
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« Reply #1241 on: May 26, 2022, 09:58:33 AM »

I need someone to confirm it but it seems her sentence has been reduced so she can’t be recalled…
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Torrain
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« Reply #1242 on: May 26, 2022, 10:17:52 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2022, 10:22:28 AM by Torrain »

I need someone to confirm it but it seems her sentence has been reduced so she can’t be recalled…

You may be right…

Apparently it’s now a suspended jail sentence, and the recall petition specifically requires detention (under 12 months, as any more than that automatically triggers expulsion).

However, an MP who has been suspended from the Commons for more than 10 sitting days, or 14 days total, is also liable to being recalled. So if Parliament sanctions her (possibly with a by-election in mind), she could still be recalled.

Edit: I doubt she will resign on her own merit - given how she’s acted so far. Webbe is still posting on social media like a normal politician, even today, no mention of her case. But on all new posts, as of this afternoon, she’s disabled comments. She seems to be following the PM’s lead, and expecting to brazenly carry onI think it would take a credible threat of expulsion from Parliament to get her to resign at this point.
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YL
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« Reply #1243 on: May 26, 2022, 10:35:26 AM »

I need someone to confirm it but it seems her sentence has been reduced so she can’t be recalled…

You may be right…

Apparently it’s now a suspended jail sentence, and the recall petition specifically requires detention (under 12 months, as any more than that automatically triggers expulsion).

However, an MP who has been suspended from the Commons for more than 10 sitting days, or 14 days total, is also liable to being recalled. So if Parliament sanctions her (possibly with a by-election in mind), she could still be recalled.

Edit: I doubt she will resign on her own merit - given how she’s acted so far. Webbe is still posting on social media like a normal politician, even today, no mention of her case. But on all new posts, as of this afternoon, she’s disabled comments. She seems to be following the PM’s lead, and expecting to brazenly carry onI think it would take a credible threat of expulsion from Parliament to get her to resign at this point.

Suspended sentences (which is what it was before) do trigger recall petitions; it's now just a community service order, which doesn't.

I don't know whether there's any reason for a Standards Committee or Independent Expert Panel report which would trigger a suspension.  But if the Commons really wants rid of her it could just vote to expel.

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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1244 on: May 26, 2022, 10:51:44 AM »

Just ask her to publicaly apologize, let her back in for the rest of the parliment and select someones else last time. Keep her kicked out if she doesn't.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1245 on: May 27, 2022, 07:35:16 AM »

It would certainly be "amusing" if a certain somebody held back from standing in Wakefield because they were waiting for Leicester.......
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1246 on: May 27, 2022, 07:42:04 AM »

Galloway? I think he'd lose his deposit in either of them.
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YL
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« Reply #1247 on: May 28, 2022, 02:23:41 AM »

I don't believe there was ever any serious possibility of Galloway standing in Wakefield.
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YL
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« Reply #1248 on: May 28, 2022, 06:03:47 AM »

I never did the census ranks for Tiverton & Honiton, so here they are, together with those for North Shropshire:

Tiv & HonN Shrops
Managers, directors and senior officials196174
Professional 485441
Associate professional and technical549388
Administrative and secretarial537566
Skilled trades 2461
Caring, leisure and other service 163183
Sales and customer service377541
Process plant and machine operatives306179
Elementary occupations253273
No qualifications305297
Level 4 qualifications331346
Full time students645428
Deprivation470378

(Except for the last row, this is from the 2011 census; the deprivation is from the data used by Alasdair Rae.  All ranks are UK-wide, so out of 650.)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1249 on: May 28, 2022, 07:16:03 AM »
« Edited: May 28, 2022, 07:22:43 AM by CumbrianLefty »

I don't believe there was ever any serious possibility of Galloway standing in Wakefield.

It was rumoured half-heartedly.

Maybe more seriously, some other Workers Party candidate was also mooted - especially when there was the kerfuffle over Labour's selection.
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