UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170200 times)
Torrain
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« Reply #1050 on: March 03, 2022, 08:56:19 PM »

Inclined to agree - turnout is so low, and this election has far too many conflicting factors to be all that representative. (heavily pro-Leave seat, Labour incumbent, PartyGate, and whatever Ukraine is going to do to national polling - which is anyone’s guess)

Both parties will claim promising signals, and try to lay a claim to the seat at the next GE.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #1051 on: March 04, 2022, 01:53:53 AM »

Joke parties like the LibDems, Loonies and Elvis did very poorly - again a reflection of low turnout.
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YL
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« Reply #1052 on: March 04, 2022, 02:54:14 AM »

Joke parties like the LibDems, Loonies and Elvis did very poorly - again a reflection of low turnout.

Everybody except Labour and the Tories did pretty badly really: third place was only just over 2%.  Yet another by-election in not entirely unpromising territory where Reform UK got nowhere, and even if he did manage third the noise to votes ratio for Dave Nellist was very high.
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beesley
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« Reply #1053 on: March 04, 2022, 03:51:18 AM »

Joke parties like the LibDems, Loonies and Elvis did very poorly - again a reflection of low turnout.

To be fair the Loonies and Elvis, they probably tried harder than the Lib Dems and shouldn't be treated as a joke candidate to the same extent.
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Blair
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« Reply #1054 on: March 04, 2022, 05:36:16 AM »

It was a sign of the times that I actually forgot about this when I woke up and equally there appears to be v little discord about it in Labour world

It does have a similar vibe to the other by elections (Feltham, Manchester central) in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
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Blair
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« Reply #1055 on: March 04, 2022, 05:37:19 AM »

TUSC are celebrating though.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1056 on: March 04, 2022, 05:42:03 AM »


Having a party over getting 2% of the vote feels like peak hard-left energy.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1057 on: March 04, 2022, 06:39:19 AM »

Genuine question - when was the last parliamentary byelection before this one to give Labour/Tories combined over 90% of the vote? Suspect it was some time ago.
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YL
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« Reply #1058 on: March 04, 2022, 06:55:34 AM »

Genuine question - when was the last parliamentary byelection before this one to give Labour/Tories combined over 90% of the vote? Suspect it was some time ago.

Tooting 2016?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1059 on: March 04, 2022, 07:02:10 AM »

Genuine question - when was the last parliamentary byelection before this one to give Labour/Tories combined over 90% of the vote? Suspect it was some time ago.

Tooting 2016?

Good spot, that one had totally passed me by. Remarkably similar result in more respects than that one in fact (eg all other candidates losing their deposit, and easily so)
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Cassius
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« Reply #1060 on: March 04, 2022, 07:22:08 AM »

Full Results (incl. raw vote totals):

Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.51%)
Robert Alden (C) 6,147 (36.25%)
Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.12%)
Jack Brookes (Reform) 293 (1.73%)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 236 (1.39%)
Lee Dargue (LD) 173 (1.02%)
Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.64%)
Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.47%)
Thomas O’Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.45%)
SirNosDa The Good Knight (Loony) 49 (0.29%)
Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.08%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 8 (0.05%)

Lab maj 3,266 (19.26%)

Electorate 62,996; Turnout 16,957 (26.92%, -26.34%)

We need to see more of this man and his blessed joke name in the future.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1061 on: March 04, 2022, 07:40:12 AM »


Having a party over getting 2% of the vote feels like peak hard-left energy.

Some routine and not at all transparent expectations setting by party "sources" yesterday got the Very Online Left extremely excited about Labour actually losing. Given the totally predictable failure of that to transpire, they are now milking TUSC's result for whatever little it is worth.
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« Reply #1062 on: March 04, 2022, 08:01:48 AM »

Reform would probably benefit by branding themselves as UKIP 2. Not that they would do well these days, but at least people know what a "UKIp" is.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1063 on: March 04, 2022, 08:37:37 AM »

Reform would probably benefit by branding themselves as UKIP 2. Not that they would do well these days, but at least people know what a "UKIp" is.

I think that REFUK have made a major strategic error with their rebrand. Their is a small but persistent constituency for a hard/populist right party (see UKIP, BNP etc), but it’s hard to corral them into any form of viable coalition without a primary issue.

Both UKIP and the Brexit Party literally ran as single issue parties, with the issue in their very name itself.

Unless there’s a biting desire for proportional representation of some weird anti-green movement on that part of the right, it’s hard to see what they’ll unite behind. Anti-lockdown restrictions were an animating factor for a little while, but that’s all gone now that Johnson has lifted the remaining restrictions.

So far, Richard Tice is trying to do most of those (PR, anti-net zero), but with a big focus on tax cuts and all while bragging about how buying Teslas (like he has) is the real way to deal with any ‘climate nonsense’.

He’s essentially trying to be a weird, GOP-lite, vaguely libertarian version of the Tories. I think Johnson would have to do a lot worse before they presented a threat, and in their current form they have next to nothing to offer Labour voters.

There’s a decent, if slightly too warm, write up of Tice’s aspirations in the Spectator: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/road-to-reform-is-richard-tices-party-a-threat-to-the-tories/amp
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« Reply #1064 on: March 04, 2022, 08:39:25 AM »

The should call themselves "Hang the Paedos and Bring Back the Golliwog Party"
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Continential
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« Reply #1065 on: March 04, 2022, 09:46:08 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2022, 10:18:57 AM by ‎Ishan🇺🇦 »

I think the way forward for Reform UK is to present itself as a clean "conservative populist" party who want the government to be accountable to the people or clean or something like that with a tinge of working class populist aesthetic. The Australian Democrats's slogan "Keep the bastards honest." would be a good slogan for them, hadn't the Australian Democrats thought of it and adopted it.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1066 on: March 04, 2022, 04:00:53 PM »

Reform really should have stuck with the ‘Brexit Party’ name. Yes, it makes them sound a bit stuck in the past but at least people would know who they are and what they stand for. They lack any notable or particularly impressive figures to attract attention (Tice is an absolute nobody to the average member of the British public) and their policies are not going to attract widespread support to a minor party. Anti-restrictions could have had a decent amount of purchase, but an overtly right wing party formerly led by Nigel Farage was not going to attract the actual anti-restrictions minority (young people who perceive little risk from coronavirus and who have their lives most damaged by restrictions). There’s little support for anti-green measures as the public are concerned about climate change and the Tories (and de facto Labour) don’t support the more toxic elements of the environmentalist movement eg; Extinction Rebellion, raising fuel duty etc. Anti-tax is not going to get you anywhere when there’s a Conservative government. There’s potentially an opening with illegal immigration, but immigration is less salient than it used to be and the mainstream media aren’t giving it the attention they used to. Basically, the conservative-libertarian segment of the population that Reform is from is pretty much non-existent, and the slightly upmarket BNP segment that UKIP attracted in the early 2010s is significantly happier after Brexit so less inclined to protest vote (if they vote at all these days) and Reform seems to be ignoring them anyways. There’s just no reason to expect them to be the next UKIP.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #1067 on: March 04, 2022, 04:15:32 PM »

UKIP was a perfect storm that probably can't be recreated and it would be a waste of time to even try recreate what they had.

RefUK's current strategy of being essentially "honest, real Tories" isn't going to win them parliamentary seats any time soon but might be the best long-term strategy, who knows.

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
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Continential
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« Reply #1068 on: March 05, 2022, 06:11:16 PM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1069 on: March 05, 2022, 06:15:38 PM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.
This!
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #1070 on: March 06, 2022, 04:55:06 AM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

That would be quite funny ngl.

However I would inevitably crash a car or start a devastating fire or say something outrageous whilst campaigning and end up (in)famous and/or in prison.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1071 on: March 06, 2022, 08:02:14 AM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

That would be quite funny ngl.

However I would inevitably crash a car or start a devastating fire or say something outrageous whilst campaigning and end up (in)famous and/or in prison.
Don't worry Atlas will be willing to write a letter of support in favour of you during your sentecing.
*Guranteeing you the death penatly
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beesley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1072 on: March 11, 2022, 03:08:06 AM »

UKIP was a perfect storm that probably can't be recreated and it would be a waste of time to even try recreate what they had.

RefUK's current strategy of being essentially "honest, real Tories" isn't going to win them parliamentary seats any time soon but might be the best long-term strategy, who knows.

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.

I think you would get more votes than Reform did last time in any of the South Gloucestershire seats.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1073 on: March 11, 2022, 06:56:06 AM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

That would be quite funny ngl.

However I would inevitably crash a car or start a devastating fire or say something outrageous whilst campaigning and end up (in)famous and/or in prison.

I mean that type of behaviour is basically how Farage made himself a political player, so who knows, you might end up as party leader and take Reform to 20% in the polls very quickly. Of course you’d eventually have to start saying ‘Up the RA’ on cameo videos, but that’s the kind of price that anyone who makes a deal with the devil has to pay.
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Continential
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« Reply #1074 on: March 11, 2022, 06:59:59 AM »

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.
You should accept if you want and be a paper candidate so you can get the distinction of being an Atlas poster who ran for office along with Harry Hayfield and afleitch.

That would be quite funny ngl.

However I would inevitably crash a car or start a devastating fire or say something outrageous whilst campaigning and end up (in)famous and/or in prison.
Well, you could run in the council elections so you could hypothetically get elected while getting in serious trouble.
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