UK By-elections thread, 2021-
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 29, 2022, 05:31:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK By-elections thread, 2021-
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 66
Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 81052 times)
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,088
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1025 on: February 06, 2022, 10:56:10 AM »

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.

The current boundary change proposals reverse that situation, at least according to some calculations.  E.g. if you enter some recent polls into Electoral Calculus and select the current proposals, the new Southend West comes up as a Labour gain.

The current proposal does 3 things.

It moves West Leigh (a Conservative - LD marginal where Labour is usually below 10%) in Castle Point.
It moves the north of West that is quite close to Rochford to Rochford and East; Eastwood Park (same as West Leigh) and St Laurence (a Conservative - Labour - Independent 3-way marginal).
It moves the west of East into West; St Luke (same as St Lawrence), Victoria (safe Labour) and Milton (safeish Labour).
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,791
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1026 on: February 08, 2022, 12:33:11 PM »

12 candidates for Birmingham Erdington:

Robert Alden (Con)
David Bishop (Militant Bus-Pass Elvis Party)
Jack Brookes (Reform UK)
Lee Dargue (Lib Dem)
Paulette Hamilton (Lab)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green)
Clifton Holme (Independent) [1]
Michael Lutwyche (Independent) [2]
Mel Mbondiah (Christian People's Alliance)
Dave Nellist (TUSC)
Thomas O'Rourke (Independent) [3]
The Good Knight Sir NosDa (Official Monster Raving Loony Party)

[1] This LinkedIn page, I suppose.
[2] Active Twitter account @LudforE; he's a Justice for the 21 campaigner (referring to the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings; comes across as something of a localist-populist
[3] There are news stories referring to someone from Birmingham of this name, but whether it's him I don't know.
Logged
Ishan
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,093


Political Matrix
E: 0.70, S: -7.38

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1027 on: February 08, 2022, 12:36:46 PM »

Has any party other than Labour been actively campaigning or are they fielding paper candidates?
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,791
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1028 on: February 08, 2022, 01:27:04 PM »

Has any party other than Labour been actively campaigning or are they fielding paper candidates?

Labour, TUSC, Ind Lutwyche and the Tories all have Twitter-detectable campaigning activity.  Former Derby North MP Chris Williamson has been campaigning for Nellist.
Logged
JimJamUK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 321
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1029 on: February 08, 2022, 01:48:44 PM »

Has any party other than Labour been actively campaigning or are they fielding paper candidates?
Labour and the Conservatives have competitive council seats up in May so will be campaigning a lot. The Greens are supposedly targeting a ward within the constituency so will presumably focus their entire effort in that one area. The Lib Dems have council seats elsewhere to focus on, while the various minor parties and independents will have minimal campaigning infrastructure even if they want to properly campaign.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1030 on: February 08, 2022, 02:21:17 PM »

Reform have been trying no less than usual.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,175
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1031 on: February 16, 2022, 09:49:55 AM »

Forgive my ignorance but could anyone give a summary of Erdginton as a constituency?

The majority is roughly the same size as Batley and smaller than Hartlepool yet it seems to be treated as if the majority was 15K- I know that the polls are a reason partly.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,261
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1032 on: February 16, 2022, 10:09:47 AM »

Has any party other than Labour been actively campaigning or are they fielding paper candidates?
Labour and the Conservatives have competitive council seats up in May so will be campaigning a lot. The Greens are supposedly targeting a ward within the constituency so will presumably focus their entire effort in that one area. The Lib Dems have council seats elsewhere to focus on, while the various minor parties and independents will have minimal campaigning infrastructure even if they want to properly campaign.
Shouldn't the lib Dems be priming up their by election machine again, hoping to prove they can win against both labour and the tories
Logged
JimJamUK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 321
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1033 on: February 16, 2022, 12:10:26 PM »

Shouldn't the lib Dems be priming up their by election machine again, hoping to prove they can win against both labour and the tories
The Lib Dem by-election machine is not used in every possible circumstance. Erdington has no Lib Dem history and is very clearly a Labour-Conservative marginal (likely to be won by the former, where most potential new Lib Dem votes come from). This means it would be very difficult to seriously position themselves as a party that can win in the eyes of the voters, and both major parties will be putting in a lot of effort to win (which isn't always the case, even North Shropshire had a skeletal Labour campaign apart from a few high profile visits at the last minute). The Lib Dem's chose not to properly campaign in Batley + Spen, Hartlepool or Old Bexley + Sidcup because they obviously weren't going to win and could focus their resources elsewhere. There's no point making a half-effort when national polling has you moderately down on 2019. There's council seats up elsewhere in the city where local activists will be more concerned, and getting people to come campaign from all over the country on the basis of saving your deposit isn't a very exciting proposition.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,791
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1034 on: February 16, 2022, 12:14:11 PM »

Forgive my ignorance but could anyone give a summary of Erdginton as a constituency?

The majority is roughly the same size as Batley and smaller than Hartlepool yet it seems to be treated as if the majority was 15K- I know that the polls are a reason partly.

Labour got (just) over 50% in 2019, which is a striking difference from Batley & Spen and even more so Hartlepool.

I don't know the constituency, but AIUI it's a mostly working class slice of north Birmingham, between the M6 and Sutton Coldfield.  I suspect it would have been vulnerable in some circumstances, especially if the current MP for Birmingham Northfield had been the Tory candidate.  
Here are its rankings (out of 650) on some census variables (over 10 years out of date now, of course):

Managers, directors and senior officials: 614
Professional: 508
Associate professional and technical: 538
Administrative and secretarial: 212
Skilled trades: 374
Caring, leisure and other service: 79
Sales and customer service: 165
Process plant and machine operatives: 98
Elementary occupations: 56

No qualifications: 29
Level 4 qualifications: 402
Full time students: 190

Deprivation (2016 data): 12


Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,175
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1035 on: February 17, 2022, 11:20:10 AM »

Forgive my ignorance but could anyone give a summary of Erdginton as a constituency?

The majority is roughly the same size as Batley and smaller than Hartlepool yet it seems to be treated as if the majority was 15K- I know that the polls are a reason partly.

Labour got (just) over 50% in 2019, which is a striking difference from Batley & Spen and even more so Hartlepool.


Thanks- this was a very helpful reminder to look at vote share rather than majority- something that v much distorts a lot of races.
Logged
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,471
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1036 on: March 02, 2022, 05:41:07 PM »

So, the Birmingham Erdington by-election is tomorrow.

Fundamentals look good for Labour, but the 2019 result could indicate weakness. Have to agree with the earlier commentary though, that Labours 50% vote share probably bodes well, when compared to prior by-elections like Hartlepool and Batley and Spen.

Not sure whether itís been covered yet, but this by-election has the traditional z-list political celebrity running. But rather than the traditional George Galloway candidacy, this time itís Dave Nellist, running under the TUSC banner.

Nellistís greatest hits include:
  • Representing Coventry South East for Labour in the 80s
  • Supporting the Militant tendency so loudly he was deselected
  • Running for almost every General Election and local council election in his area since the late 70s, for a succession of leftist parties.
  • Sort of accidentally helping to create New Labour, his greatest enemy (he was office-mates with a first-term MP named Anthony Blair. They clashed so badly that Blair requested to be moved, ended up sharing with a young Scottish MP, Gordon Brown. The rest, as they say, is history)
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,791
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1037 on: March 03, 2022, 05:19:28 AM »

Andrew Teale's preview (together with various local by-elections).

There's been a bit of a fuss about some comments the Labour candidate made in 2015, going as far as for the Tory MP for Birmingham Northfield (and councillor for Kingstanding, partly in the constituency) Gary Sambrook to call for her not to receive the Labour whip if elected.  This Birmingham Mail story has some details.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,174


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1038 on: March 03, 2022, 05:40:18 AM »

The fact that the Conservatives held this story back until today, rather than briefing it to the press when it might plausibly have affected the result, tells you something about the expected outcome here.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,175
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1039 on: March 03, 2022, 03:09:32 PM »

I wonder if this is the most boring by-election for one with a majority below 5K- even pre Ukraine there was virtually no interest. I havenít even seen politics Twitter pretend to understand the seat!

The fact that the Conservatives held this story back until today, rather than briefing it to the press when it might plausibly have affected the result, tells you something about the expected outcome here.

Was one of the most obvious playbook too- leak to GB news, the letter of outrage to Keir, the point of order in the commons- it felt very 2014 and I hope it created some work for someone who can boast about it!
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 66,000
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1040 on: March 03, 2022, 06:59:18 PM »

We've had the usual expectations kabuki from Labour for a few hours (not backed up by the other parties), which has now been replaced by more confident sounds. Hard to focus on this much, mind...
Logged
patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 473
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1041 on: March 03, 2022, 07:07:21 PM »

I wonder if this is the most boring by-election for one with a majority below 5K- even pre Ukraine there was virtually no interest. I havenít even seen politics Twitter pretend to understand the seat!

Had it happened a year ago I suspect there would have been much more interest, it could have been another Hartlepool.

But the Conservatives have fallen a lot since those days.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 66,000
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1042 on: March 03, 2022, 07:44:28 PM »

Had it happened a year ago I suspect there would have been much more interest, it could have been another Hartlepool.

But the Conservatives have fallen a lot since those days

As Harold Wilson said, a week is a long time in... *bang*
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,295



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1043 on: March 03, 2022, 07:52:05 PM »

I wonder if this is the most boring by-election for one with a majority below 5K- even pre Ukraine there was virtually no interest. I havenít even seen politics Twitter pretend to understand the seat!

Had it happened a year ago I suspect there would have been much more interest, it could have been another Hartlepool.

But the Conservatives have fallen a lot since those days.

The 2019 result was not like Hartlepool in the key ways. So even if Labour was down by as much as they were in 2019 or in May 2021, it would be much less vulnerable and a reliable Labour seat.
Logged
JimJamUK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 321
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1044 on: March 03, 2022, 07:59:04 PM »

Lots of spin from all directions, as per usual.
Logged
patzer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 473
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1045 on: March 03, 2022, 08:04:55 PM »

I wonder if this is the most boring by-election for one with a majority below 5K- even pre Ukraine there was virtually no interest. I havenít even seen politics Twitter pretend to understand the seat!

Had it happened a year ago I suspect there would have been much more interest, it could have been another Hartlepool.

But the Conservatives have fallen a lot since those days.

The 2019 result was not like Hartlepool in the key ways. So even if Labour was down by as much as they were in 2019 or in May 2021, it would be much less vulnerable and a reliable Labour seat.

It certainly wouldn't have been as bad as Hartlepool- you wouldn't have seen the swing there was there- but I'd still certainly say that pre-Partygate the Tories would have had a shot at a seat they only lost by 10% in 2019 and which voted 63% for Brexit.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,991
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1046 on: March 03, 2022, 08:09:10 PM »

Easy Labour hold

Birmingham Erdington, by-election result:

LAB: 55.5% (+5.2)
CON: 36.3% (-3.Cool
TUSC: 2.1% (+2.1)
REFUK: 1.7% (-2.4)
GRN: 1.4% (-0.4)
LDEM: 1.0% (-2.7)
IND: 0.6% (+0.6)
CPA: 0.5% (+0.5)
IND: 0.4% (+0.4)
MRLP: 0.3% (+0.3)
IND: 0.1% (+0.1)
MBPE: 0.0% (+0.0)
Logged
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,471
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1047 on: March 03, 2022, 08:26:16 PM »

When the Tories are managing expectations with lines like this:
Quote
Gary Sambrook: "Labour ought to win by 9,000 or this will be a bad night for them"
Labour are doing alright.
Logged
Torrain
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,471
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1048 on: March 03, 2022, 08:26:55 PM »

Full Results (incl. raw vote totals):

Paulette Hamilton (Lab) 9,413 (55.51%)
Robert Alden (C) 6,147 (36.25%)
Dave Nellist (TUSC) 360 (2.12%)
Jack Brookes (Reform) 293 (1.73%)
Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 236 (1.39%)
Lee Dargue (LD) 173 (1.02%)
Michael Lutwyche (Ind) 109 (0.64%)
Mel Mbondiah (CPA) 79 (0.47%)
Thomas O’Rourke (Ind) 76 (0.45%)
SirNosDa The Good Knight (Loony) 49 (0.29%)
Clifton Holmes (Ind) 14 (0.08%)
David Bishop (BP Elvis) 8 (0.05%)

Lab maj 3,266 (19.26%)

Electorate 62,996; Turnout 16,957 (26.92%, -26.34%)
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 66,000
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1049 on: March 03, 2022, 08:27:15 PM »

Rather relevant here: turnout of 27.0%.

This is one of those constituencies where there's usually a notable partisan impact to variable turnout patterns - Labour tend to poll better the higher the turnout which isn't the case everywhere. This is partially because some people locally vote Labour in GEs and Conservative locally (not relevant in a by-election), but it mostly largely reflects the composition of the constituency: it's quite the patchwork of different elements, of different types of inner suburb. Possible that some of Labour's expectation management reflected jitters relating to this given the obviously incoming comedy turnout.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 66  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 12 queries.