UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1000 on: January 25, 2022, 07:14:56 AM »

Labour have shortlisted two candidates- one is a councillor and the other a GMB activist. Would be the first time Labour have selected a black man for a winnable by election since Tottenham 2000?



Rumoured this one will be "fast-tracked" for March, rather than waiting for the May polls.
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YL
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« Reply #1001 on: January 27, 2022, 04:24:46 AM »

Paulette Hamilton won the Labour selection for Birmingham Erdington.

I presume the fact that Labour have already selected means the writ will be moved in the near future.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1002 on: January 27, 2022, 01:57:13 PM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless Iím missing something.

It ought to be, but there was a 17% swing to Alliance in 2019 and with the DUP not in particularly great shape at the moment they'd give it a go in a by-election.  If the big U Unionist vote splits they might have a chance.

The trouble for the Alliance is that they have had some local drama since 2019; their long-time MLA from the area, Trevor Lunn, defected to sit as an Independent in 2020. He's already announced his retirement at the next election anyway, but he's a huge figure in local politics in Lagan Valley and has left the Alliance a bit disorganized there in particular.
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beesley
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« Reply #1003 on: February 01, 2022, 05:18:36 AM »

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.
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beesley
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« Reply #1004 on: February 01, 2022, 06:21:55 AM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless Iím missing something.

It ought to be, but there was a 17% swing to Alliance in 2019 and with the DUP not in particularly great shape at the moment they'd give it a go in a by-election.  If the big U Unionist vote splits they might have a chance.

The trouble for the Alliance is that they have had some local drama since 2019; their long-time MLA from the area, Trevor Lunn, defected to sit as an Independent in 2020. He's already announced his retirement at the next election anyway, but he's a huge figure in local politics in Lagan Valley and has left the Alliance a bit disorganized there in particular.

He has endorsed the Alliance candidate, whoever that is. I think if it hasn't already been announced it'll be Sorcha Eastwood - reasonably strong.
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YL
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« Reply #1005 on: February 01, 2022, 06:31:27 AM »

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.

He has an unusually successful electoral history for a far left candidate.  He was a Labour MP for the then Coventry South East constituency from 1983, but was expelled from the party in 1991 over links to Militant.  He stood as an independent in the 1992 General Election; he came third, but got 28% of the vote and actually wasn't that far off holding his seat, one of the best performances by "left of Labour" candidates not called George Galloway in a parliamentary election.  (He did considerably better than the other MP expelled from Labour at the same time, Terry Fields.)  Later he was a Coventry city councillor for the Socialist Alternative (one part of TUSC) for 14 years, and even had two ward colleagues representing the same party for a time, but lost his seat in 2012.
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YL
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« Reply #1006 on: February 01, 2022, 12:53:55 PM »

The writ for Birmingham Erdington was moved yesterday and the by-election has been called for 3 March.  Nominations close on Tuesday next week.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1007 on: February 01, 2022, 06:39:09 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2022, 06:44:48 PM by Coldstream »

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.

He has an unusually successful electoral history for a far left candidate.  He was a Labour MP for the then Coventry South East constituency from 1983, but was expelled from the party in 1991 over links to Militant.  He stood as an independent in the 1992 General Election; he came third, but got 28% of the vote and actually wasn't that far off holding his seat, one of the best performances by "left of Labour" candidates not called George Galloway in a parliamentary election.  (He did considerably better than the other MP expelled from Labour at the same time, Terry Fields.)  Later he was a Coventry city councillor for the Socialist Alternative (one part of TUSC) for 14 years, and even had two ward colleagues representing the same party for a time, but lost his seat in 2012.

He was my mums MP and councillor. Ardent Blairite that she is, she said he was always a great representative and that was why people kept voting for him - ignoring his more outlandish views.

Heís of course famous for having acrimoniously shared an office with Blair when they were first elected.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1008 on: February 01, 2022, 07:31:48 PM »

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.

He has an unusually successful electoral history for a far left candidate.  He was a Labour MP for the then Coventry South East constituency from 1983, but was expelled from the party in 1991 over links to Militant.  He stood as an independent in the 1992 General Election; he came third, but got 28% of the vote and actually wasn't that far off holding his seat, one of the best performances by "left of Labour" candidates not called George Galloway in a parliamentary election.  (He did considerably better than the other MP expelled from Labour at the same time, Terry Fields.)  Later he was a Coventry city councillor for the Socialist Alternative (one part of TUSC) for 14 years, and even had two ward colleagues representing the same party for a time, but lost his seat in 2012.

He was my mums MP and councillor. Ardent Blairite that she is, she said he was always a great representative and that was why people kept voting for him - ignoring his more outlandish views.

Heís of course famous for having acrimoniously shared an office with Blair when they were first elected.
That sounds like a sitcom plot.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1009 on: February 02, 2022, 05:28:42 AM »

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.

He has an unusually successful electoral history for a far left candidate.  He was a Labour MP for the then Coventry South East constituency from 1983, but was expelled from the party in 1991 over links to Militant.  He stood as an independent in the 1992 General Election; he came third, but got 28% of the vote and actually wasn't that far off holding his seat, one of the best performances by "left of Labour" candidates not called George Galloway in a parliamentary election.  (He did considerably better than the other MP expelled from Labour at the same time, Terry Fields.)  Later he was a Coventry city councillor for the Socialist Alternative (one part of TUSC) for 14 years, and even had two ward colleagues representing the same party for a time, but lost his seat in 2012.

He was my mums MP and councillor. Ardent Blairite that she is, she said he was always a great representative and that was why people kept voting for him - ignoring his more outlandish views.

Heís of course famous for having acrimoniously shared an office with Blair when they were first elected.
That sounds like a sitcom plot.

Indeed, Blair got so annoyed he was moved in with another 1983 newbie Gordon Brown (and the rest, as they say, is history!).
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #1010 on: February 03, 2022, 10:31:33 AM »

I'm curious to know how people think the Southend West election to day would go if the other parties hadn't left it uncontested.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1011 on: February 03, 2022, 10:37:19 AM »

I'm curious to know how people think the Southend West election to day would go if the other parties hadn't left it uncontested.

You can wonder the same about Batley and Spen in 2016 - at a time when Labour were struggling in the polls rather like the Tories are currently.

But the benchmarks from that one - turnout of 25%, winner getting 85% - remain relevant here IMO. Even if UKIP weren't standing then and are now.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1012 on: February 03, 2022, 01:00:12 PM »

I'm curious to know how people think the Southend West election to day would go if the other parties hadn't left it uncontested.

You can wonder the same about Batley and Spen in 2016 - at a time when Labour were struggling in the polls rather like the Tories are currently.

But the benchmarks from that one - turnout of 25%, winner getting 85% - remain relevant here IMO. Even if UKIP weren't standing then and are now.

Regarding UKIP, they are standing, but Reform UK isnít standing this time. I think RefUK is probably the more relevant comparison here.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1013 on: February 03, 2022, 07:10:53 PM »
« Edited: February 03, 2022, 08:29:51 PM by Torrain »

Very low turnout - comparable to the 25% turnout for the 2016 Batley and Spen by-election.



Edit: results again in line with the Batley by-election, with only mainstream candidate receiving around 85% of the vote, with none of the fringe candidates holding their deposits.

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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1014 on: February 03, 2022, 09:40:07 PM »

Can't wait for the first person to use to argue that actually Boris Johnson is still popular
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1015 on: February 03, 2022, 09:41:32 PM »

Over one thousand spoilt ballots, which is very high.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1016 on: February 03, 2022, 09:45:24 PM »

Slightly better both turnout and Tory share-wise than I had thought might be the case.

But the number of spoiled ballots shows even a token fringe left candidate would very likely have come second (and taken the winning percentage down a few points)
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1017 on: February 04, 2022, 01:11:45 AM »

Slightly better both turnout and Tory share-wise than I had thought might be the case.

But the number of spoiled ballots shows even a token fringe left candidate would very likely have come second (and taken the winning percentage down a few points)

Such a candidate probably wouldíve kept their deposit.
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YL
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« Reply #1018 on: February 04, 2022, 02:10:59 AM »

Slightly better both turnout and Tory share-wise than I had thought might be the case.

But the number of spoiled ballots shows even a token fringe left candidate would very likely have come second (and taken the winning percentage down a few points)

Probably, if only by scooping the Labour voters who turned up not knowing there wasnít a Labour candidate; after all I imagine that thatís where a lot of the spoilt ballots and Psychedelic Movement votes came from.  (I doubt most of those 512 people actually knew about some of the weirder right wing sounding stuff in the ďmanifestoĒ.)  But they may well have decided that in the circumstances they didnít want to, just like Labour etc. themselves.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1019 on: February 04, 2022, 08:10:35 AM »

I'm curious to know how people think the Southend West election to day would go if the other parties hadn't left it uncontested.

Worth noting that the Tory vote yesterday was actually lower than the Labour vote in 2019. Obviously itís on 1/3 of the turnout, and probably attributable more to people not voting since the election was a foregone conclusion, but still.

Though itís likely the other Southend seat that Labour will be targeting in the next election, whilst itís a big majority (13k) thereís quite a few councillors there and it swung quite heavily to Labour in 2017.
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Leohendo9
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« Reply #1020 on: February 05, 2022, 04:45:35 AM »

quick question.

can UK have a leadership election for the PM's position or is it just a vote of no confidence?

Labour had a bunch of leadership elections while JC was in charge but that makes sense cos you are not changing PM.

feels like its a bit unfair to change PM internally unless they resign or lose a voc vote. calling a snap general election even a thing?
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Cassius
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« Reply #1021 on: February 05, 2022, 06:33:12 AM »
« Edited: February 05, 2022, 06:36:51 AM by Cassius »

quick question.

can UK have a leadership election for the PM's position or is it just a vote of no confidence?

Labour had a bunch of leadership elections while JC was in charge but that makes sense cos you are not changing PM.

feels like its a bit unfair to change PM internally unless they resign or lose a voc vote. calling a snap general election even a thing?

The PM is appointed by the Queen, who could, in theory, choose absolutely anybody in the country to hold the position (this afternoon the Queen could decide to sack Johnson and appoint me in his place). In practice however, the convention now is that whomsoever the Queen appoints as PM must have the confidence of the House of Commons. This was something much more fluid in the pre-modern era, however, nowadays that person is always the leader of the party that can command in a majority in the House of Commons. In the case of the Conservative party, the leadership election technically has nothing to do with the process of appointing the PM, but as the new leader will become the leader of the majority party in the house, convention dictates that the Queen appoint him or her as PM.

There are otherwise no conventions around the changing of a leader and calling a snap election is not one of them (although new PMís often feel as though they need a new mandate from the public if theyíve been appointed mid-term). Of course, given our lack of a written constitution, it could become convention for an Ďunelectedí PM to have to call a general election after assuming office (in the same manner as we seem to be feeling our way to a new convention on party switching MPís resigning and standing for re-election), but it seems pretty unlikely.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1022 on: February 05, 2022, 07:39:31 PM »

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #1023 on: February 06, 2022, 07:27:10 AM »

this afternoon the Queen could decide to sack Johnson and appoint me in his place

Ah if only...
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YL
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« Reply #1024 on: February 06, 2022, 08:05:19 AM »

Southend West is probably still a long shot for Labour in next election, although if getting a majority without Scotland, this would likely be on target list.  Neighbouring seat of Rochford and Southend East probably more winnable.

The current boundary change proposals reverse that situation, at least according to some calculations.  E.g. if you enter some recent polls into Electoral Calculus and select the current proposals, the new Southend West comes up as a Labour gain.
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