UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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beesley
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« Reply #825 on: December 08, 2021, 04:21:52 PM »


If this is real rather twitter nonsence, this seems a bit too transparently trying to drump up outrage to work.

Well yes in the sense the outrage has already been drumming up for a while. But this ad is not going to hurt them.
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Blair
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« Reply #826 on: December 09, 2021, 02:45:15 PM »

The Conservatives also struggle to whip up the same hatred against the Lib Dems compared to Labour; in fact the only proven method they have of attacking the Lib Dems is to generally warn that voting for them will lead to a 'Socialist Government'.*

I've always wondered if that's been a factor behind the bigger swings we've seen to the Lib Dems compared to Labour.

*To an extent Labour had this issue in the mid 2000s- it wasn't until the coalition that they had a reliable way of moving voters from the Lib-Dems to Labour. There were some laughable actions pre 2010, some of which ended up in court action.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #827 on: December 09, 2021, 07:05:29 PM »

The Conservatives also struggle to whip up the same hatred against the Lib Dems compared to Labour; in fact the only proven method they have of attacking the Lib Dems is to generally warn that voting for them will lead to a 'Socialist Government'.*

I've always wondered if that's been a factor behind the bigger swings we've seen to the Lib Dems compared to Labour.

*To an extent Labour had this issue in the mid 2000s- it wasn't until the coalition that they had a reliable way of moving voters from the Lib-Dems to Labour. There were some laughable actions pre 2010, some of which ended up in court action.
Couldn't using Brexit and the Lib Dems incredibly toxic REVOKE policy work in a heavily leave constituency such as this ?
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Blair
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« Reply #828 on: December 10, 2021, 08:37:12 AM »

The Conservatives also struggle to whip up the same hatred against the Lib Dems compared to Labour; in fact the only proven method they have of attacking the Lib Dems is to generally warn that voting for them will lead to a 'Socialist Government'.*

I've always wondered if that's been a factor behind the bigger swings we've seen to the Lib Dems compared to Labour.

*To an extent Labour had this issue in the mid 2000s- it wasn't until the coalition that they had a reliable way of moving voters from the Lib-Dems to Labour. There were some laughable actions pre 2010, some of which ended up in court action.
Couldn't using Brexit and the Lib Dems incredibly toxic REVOKE policy work in a heavily leave constituency such as this ?

It could do with a certain type of voter- such as those they lost in 2017 and 2019 (and by extension those they lost in 2015)

however the issue isn’t that burning anymore and even this seat didn’t support Leave by a soviet margin
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #829 on: December 10, 2021, 10:08:54 AM »

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #830 on: December 10, 2021, 10:22:54 AM »

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.
Can someone explain this ? Did the tories stand down candidates in certain consciences or something to keep the liberals alive?
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beesley
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« Reply #831 on: December 10, 2021, 10:26:33 AM »

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.

Agreed - the Lib Dems performance now is numerically close to that of Jo Grimond's tenure. It could go the way of 1970 (with the suburban Remain areas in London and the SE replacing the Celtic fringe), with a poor general election performance, but this is not a party that is dying, and one where any decline by the Tories from their 2019 result and local factors might nab them a few seats regardless of their own national image.

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.
Can someone explain this ? Did the tories stand down candidates in certain consciences or something to keep the liberals alive?


Yes - I'm not 100% sure of the exact timelines in each local case, but in all but one seat in 1951 that the Liberals won, there was no Tory candidate. One of these, Bolton West, was a gain in fact, due to the Labour MP being involved in scandal.
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YL
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« Reply #832 on: December 10, 2021, 11:41:11 AM »

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.

Agreed - the Lib Dems performance now is numerically close to that of Jo Grimond's tenure. It could go the way of 1970 (with the suburban Remain areas in London and the SE replacing the Celtic fringe), with a poor general election performance, but this is not a party that is dying, and one where any decline by the Tories from their 2019 result and local factors might nab them a few seats regardless of their own national image.

I guess it depends on your definition of "dead". For example, surely by any reasonable definition the continuation Liberal Party is "dead", but it does still exist and still elects a handful of councillors. The continuation SDP was even more "dead", having lost its last councillor, before it recently got a tiny breath of life when it was taken over by Brexit activists and even had an MEP in 2018-2019 (a defector from UKIP); is the party still alive?

Regardless, the Lib Dems are very clearly far more viable than either of those parties and continue to be quite alive in some parts of the country, if moribund in others. They were in much more dire straits in the early 1950s, kept alive only by the sentimentalism of random local Tory groups.
Can someone explain this ? Did the tories stand down candidates in certain consciences or something to keep the liberals alive?


Yes - I'm not 100% sure of the exact timelines in each local case, but in all but one seat in 1951 that the Liberals won, there was no Tory candidate. One of these, Bolton West, was a gain in fact, due to the Labour MP being involved in scandal.

There were local pacts in both Bolton and Huddersfield; in both cases the Liberals stood in West and the Tories in East.  I don't know why the Tories didn't stand in the Welsh constituencies but suspect the Liberals would have held Cardigan and Montgomery regardless.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #833 on: December 11, 2021, 11:08:12 AM »

Tories have selected their next MP for Southend West, who was the loser in Canterbury in 2019.

Means that the HoC will have a new record number of women members after that vacancy is filled, regardless of whether the LibDem hopeful in N Shropshire wins or not.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #834 on: December 11, 2021, 11:40:40 AM »

There were local pacts in both Bolton and Huddersfield; in both cases the Liberals stood in West and the Tories in East.  I don't know why the Tories didn't stand in the Welsh constituencies but suspect the Liberals would have held Cardigan and Montgomery regardless.

Montgomery could only have been vulnerable to the Tories and was never likely to be so whilst Clement Davies was candidate - when the pact broke there in 1959 his majority was still a solid 11pts. I suspect the logic was simply that he was the party's leader. Ceredigion/Cardigan is an odder case: it was historically much safer for the Liberals and looked secure on the fully-contested 1950 results, but Roderic Bowen was an absentee MP and eventually lost as a result at the second post-pact election there. Which, admittedly, was 1966.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #835 on: December 12, 2021, 05:40:02 AM »

LibDems have produced "canvass figures" from N Shropshire showing them just a point behind the Tories and Labour still in the teens. Not inconvenient, if you are in a cynical frame of mind.....
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Boobs
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« Reply #836 on: December 12, 2021, 02:37:23 PM »

Heard there's a potential for a Winchester by-election? For some vaguely sleaze-related reason, paid advocacy that Brine did/is doing. Not sure if it's actually going to happen, but if it would, seems like a Lib Dem slam dunk (and therefore potentially just wish casting on their behalf.)
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YL
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« Reply #837 on: December 12, 2021, 03:34:00 PM »

Steve Brine isn't on the Commissioner for Standards' list of current investigations.

I don't know whether any of those cases which are on the list are sufficiently serious to be likely to lead to recall petitions.
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YL
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« Reply #838 on: December 14, 2021, 04:52:57 AM »

LibDems have produced "canvass figures" from N Shropshire showing them just a point behind the Tories and Labour still in the teens. Not inconvenient, if you are in a cynical frame of mind.....

It's quite hard to get an impression of what's really going on there, isn't it?

History suggests that an unpopular Tory government facing a Liberal (Democrat) challenge in that sort of constituency in a by-election is likely to lose, but a lot of that history is a long time ago, hence the brackets round "Democrat".  I wouldn't think it's as bad a constituency for the Johnson Tories as Chesham & Amersham, but things are much worse for the Government now than they were then, and the circumstances around the by-election are worse too.  Balancing various thoughts out, my gut feeling is a fall in the Tory vote to around 40%.  Have the Lib Dems done enough to squeeze the Labour and Green vote to get above 40% themselves?  Maybe just about. 

As it happens, those thoughts are pretty much in line with the Lib Dems' claimed canvassing figurees...
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Pericles
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« Reply #839 on: December 14, 2021, 05:09:23 AM »

Chesham and Amersham was also a landslide for the LibDems so they can afford to do a bit worse than there.
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beesley
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« Reply #840 on: December 14, 2021, 05:25:57 AM »

To me the main difference between the two is that North Shropshire would be more of a national indictment - there is no local wedge issue there like planning was in Chesham, that can be quickly solved by a potential change in policy.
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Boobs
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« Reply #841 on: December 15, 2021, 08:38:33 AM »



Something in the water in old Shropshire, huh... Could be quite the doable lift for Labour if Tories' troubles continue.
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Blair
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« Reply #842 on: December 15, 2021, 05:46:41 PM »

I never want a by-election again where I have to watch the performative activism of both Labour & the Liberal Democrats. It almost resembles a couple who've separated but not fully divorced- both side seems to be surprised & shocked when the other acts as if they're not actually aligned.

The Liberal Democrats would never give Labour free run at a seat where they came 2nd- I mean do we really expect them to give up fighting Wimbledon?

Anyway if the Tories win by a margin smaller than the Labour vote it will be exhausting & annoying because it will essentially be the same type of people bickering with each other, while another group shout at both sides who are already shouting each other telling them to 'work together'.
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Blair
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« Reply #843 on: December 15, 2021, 05:51:06 PM »

Rants aside the election is tomorrow.

The Government has had such an awful month that anything other than a lose will be written off by the Westminster bubble as a win for the PM* & a much needed reprieve.  It shouldn't though; this is pretty much how a safe by-election Tory safe seat would look if you designed it in a lab.

My hunch is still that the Conservatives will hold it.

*although it's equally likely that covid news & Christmas makes this all a very short footnote in a bigger story
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Pericles
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« Reply #844 on: December 15, 2021, 06:35:35 PM »



Something in the water in old Shropshire, huh... Could be quite the doable lift for Labour if Tories' troubles continue.

Interesting, Shrewsbury and Atcham is pretty much the exact kind of seat Labour would be winning if they got an overall majority.
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Cassius
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« Reply #845 on: December 16, 2021, 07:43:15 AM »

Rants aside the election is tomorrow.

The Government has had such an awful month that anything other than a lose will be written off by the Westminster bubble as a win for the PM* & a much needed reprieve.  It shouldn't though; this is pretty much how a safe by-election Tory safe seat would look if you designed it in a lab.

My hunch is still that the Conservatives will hold it.

*although it's equally likely that covid news & Christmas makes this all a very short footnote in a bigger story

I feel the bubble of expectation has swollen to such mammoth proportions, partly because almost everyone other than the PM is now invested in the Tories losing, that even a narrow hold will quite easily be spun this way (a bit like Batley and Spen but in reverse).
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YL
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« Reply #846 on: December 16, 2021, 08:08:28 AM »

I guess the problem for the Lib Dems was that to squeeze the Labour and Green votes enough to have a chance they had to create the impression that they were winning, which isn't really compatible with expectation management.

That said, I think they might well win, in which case that won't matter.  We will see...
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Cassius
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« Reply #847 on: December 16, 2021, 08:15:19 AM »



Reclaim Party candidate seems to be appealing to the crucial Brown Battalions demographic with this kind of iconography.
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rc18
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« Reply #848 on: December 16, 2021, 08:38:53 AM »

It will be interesting just how dismal the Tory turnout will be, but I suspect enough for the LDs to take it if they (likely) hoover up the Labour vote.
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YL
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« Reply #849 on: December 16, 2021, 09:35:57 AM »

Andrew Teale's preview (also covering various local council by-elections):
www.britainelects.com/2021/12/16/previewing-super-thursday-16-dec-2021/
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