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rc18
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« Reply #800 on: December 03, 2021, 12:15:52 PM »

No more ironic than the Labour seats, which were anti-EU (well, EC) in Heath's time but are now pro-EU. Both sides have done a 180 on the issue.
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« Reply #801 on: December 03, 2021, 12:20:57 PM »

Why is there so much pro-Brexit sentiment in Old Bexley and Sidcup? I get the Brexit sentiment in "left behind" rust belt areas of the north etc... but what explains anyone in Greater London wanting Brexit when its so abundantly clear that if there is one place that will be (and has already been) devastated by Brexit, its London? Though I suppose some might ask that question to a certain former mayor of London...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #802 on: December 03, 2021, 12:37:17 PM »

It's comfortably well off suburbia for the most part but in a middle management kind of way rather than a higher professionals way and is also quite old - the average age is either the oldest in the GLA area or close to it. I suppose there's also a bit of a white-flighty element as well. These factors usually correlated to higher support for Leave in the referendum. But remember most places weren't overwhelmingly for one side or the other: the estimated resulted for this constituency was 62.4 to 37.6, which is a substantial lead but not a massive blowout.
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« Reply #803 on: December 03, 2021, 12:40:18 PM »

It's comfortably well off suburbia for the most part but in a middle management kind of way rather than a higher professionals way and is also quite old - the average age is either the oldest in the GLA area or close to it. I suppose there's also a bit of a white-flighty element as well. These factors usually correlated to higher support for Leave in the referendum. But remember most places weren't overwhelmingly for one side or the other: the estimated resulted for this constituency was 62.4 to 37.6, which is a substantial lead but not a massive blowout.
It's worth noting there are other parts of London that are Brexit-y as well and London by no means was monolithically Remain . Look at SW London.
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YL
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« Reply #804 on: December 03, 2021, 12:42:14 PM »

Why is there so much pro-Brexit sentiment in Old Bexley and Sidcup? I get the Brexit sentiment in "left behind" rust belt areas of the north etc... but what explains anyone in Greater London wanting Brexit when its so abundantly clear that if there is one place that will be (and has already been) devastated by Brexit, its London? Though I suppose some might ask that question to a certain former mayor of London...

I don't know the area at all but my understanding is that it really thinks of itself as Kent rather than London.  Regardless of that, demographics generally give a better indication of how places voted than region (at least within England outside Liverpool) and Old Bexley & Sidcup has a noticeably low proportion of graduates for a middle class constituency.  Other constituencies in the London area and elsewhere with this pattern of low deprivation but also lowish education levels also voted strongly Leave; Rayleigh & Wickford, the Essex constituency which thinks that Mark François is a sensible person to represent it in Parliament, is a particularly striking example.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #805 on: December 03, 2021, 12:46:45 PM »

Still, as far as the referendum goes... the low turnout and the decent Labour recent suggests a lot of that atmosphere is fading somewhat. Of course this is what every other sign since the autumn has suggested so, again, we have learned nothing new.
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rc18
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« Reply #806 on: December 03, 2021, 01:23:00 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2021, 02:58:32 PM by rc18 »

Whilst the Tory base (and especially the base in Bexley) isn't going to vote Labour (class-based voting amongst a certain sort of Tory is very definitely not dead), it's a lot more willing to flirt with the Lib Dems to send a message.

Here's the rub though, that is only true for certain parts of the Tory electorate, largely the wealthy graduate commuters you're more likely to find west of London. After all, if this were a universal in the Tory coalition then the LDs should have been able to siphon off disaffected Tory voters in OB&S. C&A has a high proportion of these types of Tory, OB&S and NS don't.


Why is there so much pro-Brexit sentiment in Old Bexley and Sidcup? I get the Brexit sentiment in "left behind" rust belt areas of the north etc... but what explains anyone in Greater London wanting Brexit when its so abundantly clear that if there is one place that will be (and has already been) devastated by Brexit, its London? Though I suppose some might ask that question to a certain former mayor of London...

Well that begs the question as to whether Bexley is London, it was formerly part of Kent before Greater London was created. Demographic change in London has only really accelerated in the last couple of decades, and particularly the south of the Borough is still culturally more Kent than London.

There are plenty of relatively left behind areas in the south, and particularly north/east Kent and south/east Essex are fairly Brexity, places which gave UKIP their only MPs.
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Blair
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« Reply #807 on: December 04, 2021, 04:04:06 AM »

Well the online reaction to the by-election has been very weird- with the anti Keir left saying it was a disaster based on the vote total being below 2019- when they’ve always been v keen on using % vote share for other metrics.

A funny example of the Labour forever war is the endless fight to spin by-election results- I remember Copeland in 2017 being blamed on Blair among other things.
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Blair
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« Reply #808 on: December 04, 2021, 04:06:20 AM »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #809 on: December 04, 2021, 05:00:54 AM »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties. There certainly was a decently strong class correlation in the referendum, probably more prominent than any in the last couple of general elections, but age and education (the latter being a function of the former to a large extent, of course) were stronger predictors.
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rc18
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« Reply #810 on: December 04, 2021, 05:43:50 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2021, 06:50:57 AM by rc18 »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

The stuff that comes up on these threads.

Golf courses are a sign of places which have undeveloped land at relatively low cost (or they would have had houses built on them). You will find plenty of golf courses up in the north of England near very depressed communities. As your trainline comment betrays, the affluent people these golf courses attract will often be from elsewhere, in this case often people from closer to central London looking for open space for such activites.

I don't find it surprising how people on the left completely don't understand wealth, or lack thereof, outside major urban areas. Just because there's more open space doesn't mean everyone is well off. Just because there are more owner occupied dwellings doesn't mean they are more well off, because property is significantly cheaper and salaries lower etc etc. These might be a sign of differences in wealth within an urban area, but this doesn't translate between urban and rural.

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this archetype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjure up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype in Kent for example, such as Tunbridge Wells, are the only places around those parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #811 on: December 04, 2021, 05:55:45 AM »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this architype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjur up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype, such as Tonbridge Wells for example, are the only places around these parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?


Um, if you actually read my post, you would have noticed I said that there evidently was a class correlation, and that the average Remain-voting place is obviously more affluent than the average Leave-voting one. My point was that old people in, say, Tunbridge Wells, are likely to have voted Leave even if they were well-off, because age tended to trump class. There is, believe it or not, quite a bit of nuance to such patterns. I hate to go all “anecdotal evidence”, but I know of quite a few elderly upper middle people here in uber-Remain SW London who voted Leave. And, by the way, I’m really not the type to obsess over the voter demographics of my preferred side to convince myself of our moral superiority. I’m a keen, but generally disinterested, observer of electoral sociology.
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rc18
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« Reply #812 on: December 04, 2021, 07:27:44 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2021, 07:31:08 AM by rc18 »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this architype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjur up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype, such as Tonbridge Wells for example, are the only places around these parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?


Um, if you actually read my post, you would have noticed I said that there evidently was a class correlation, and that the average Remain-voting place is obviously more affluent than the average Leave-voting one. My point was that old people in, say, Tunbridge Wells, are likely to have voted Leave even if they were well-off, because age tended to trump class. There is, believe it or not, quite a bit of nuance to such patterns. I hate to go all “anecdotal evidence”, but I know of quite a few elderly upper middle people here in uber-Remain SW London who voted Leave. And, by the way, I’m really not the type to obsess over the voter demographics of my preferred side to convince myself of our moral superiority. I’m a keen, but generally disinterested, observer of electoral sociology.

The correlations you are talking about are aggregated over the whole country though. When talking only of certain areas these break down.

I'm from Kent originally, I know it and the people well. I was driving around during the referendum when all the signs were up. There were so many here on private properties it was pretty easy to see the correlations. The dominant factor of whether any property was Leave or Remain was clearly not age, but the socio-economics of the area. Townhouses, converted barns, new-build for London escapees were all uniformally Remain. Ex-council estates and decrepit victorian terraces etc (which by their nature tend to house younger families here) were a sea of Leave.

The reason for the age factor is the massive demographic difference between London (and to a smaller extent other cities) and the rest of the country. Young people outside the cities are not necessarily strongly remain, old people not necessarily as Leave as the aggregated figures suggest either.

It's incredibly frustrating when people not from the area claim the reason places like north and east Kent voted leave was because, despite the demographic figures, they're actually full of rich old people; I know from my own experience it was precisely the opposite.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #813 on: December 04, 2021, 07:31:33 AM »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this architype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjur up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype, such as Tonbridge Wells for example, are the only places around these parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?


Um, if you actually read my post, you would have noticed I said that there evidently was a class correlation, and that the average Remain-voting place is obviously more affluent than the average Leave-voting one. My point was that old people in, say, Tunbridge Wells, are likely to have voted Leave even if they were well-off, because age tended to trump class. There is, believe it or not, quite a bit of nuance to such patterns. I hate to go all “anecdotal evidence”, but I know of quite a few elderly upper middle people here in uber-Remain SW London who voted Leave. And, by the way, I’m really not the type to obsess over the voter demographics of my preferred side to convince myself of our moral superiority. I’m a keen, but generally disinterested, observer of electoral sociology.

The correlations you are talking about are aggregated over the whole country though. When talking only of certain areas these break down.

I'm from Kent originally, I know it and the people well. I was driving around during the referendum when all the signs were up. There were so many here on private properties it was pretty easy to see the correlations. The dominant factor of whether any property was Leave or Remain was clearly not age, but the socio-economics of the area. Townhouses, converted barns, new-build for London escapees were all uniformally Remain. Ex-council estates and decrepit victorian terraces etc (which by their nature tend to house younger families here) were a sea of Leave.

The reason for the age factor is the massive demographic difference between London (and to a smaller extent other cities) and the rest of the country. Young people outside the cities are not necessarily strongly remain, old people not necessarily as Leave as the aggregated figures suggest either.

It's incredibly frustrating when people not from the area claim the reason places like north and east Kent voted leave was because they're actually full of rich old people; I know from my own experience it was precisely the opposite.

Oh, please don’t get me wrong; economic depression was obviously one of the main reasons that north and east Kent voted so strongly for Leave. Just trying to point out a bit of the subtlety to such things.
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Blair
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« Reply #814 on: December 04, 2021, 09:19:48 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2021, 09:22:58 AM by Blair »

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

The stuff that comes up on these threads.

Golf courses are a sign of places which have undeveloped land at relatively low cost (or they would have had houses built on them). You will find plenty of golf courses up in the north of England near very depressed communities. As your trainline comment betrays, the affluent people these golf courses attract will often be from elsewhere, in this case often people from closer to central London looking for open space for such activites.


I don't find it surprising how people on the left completely don't understand wealth, or lack thereof, outside major urban areas. Just because there's more open space doesn't mean everyone is well off. Just because there are more owner occupied dwellings doesn't mean they are more well off, because property is significantly cheaper and salaries lower etc etc. These might be a sign of differences in wealth within an urban area, but this doesn't translate between urban and rural.

If you’re been to Bromley you’ll understand how Bexley is a Tory enclave- it’s very much a completely different world- the fact there are a number of golf courses on the train line down there is a pithy example.

There are parts of Kent that are extremely affluent (owner occupied village with cricket greens) that voted Leave- Brexit has been rewritten since as a largely economic fight but it was very much a cultural one too.

Indeed - one of the several archetypes of a Leave voter that I have in my head is a well-off Telegraph-reading retiree in the Home Counties.

The only reason you have this archetype meme in your head is that's what left-wing remainers had to conjure up to convince themselves they were on the good (poor) side. That's why you get all this blatant nonsense like London is oh so poor and everyone outside the M25 is some rich businessman living in a converted barn. It's complete horsesh**t. The places that are closest to that archetype in Kent for example, such as Tunbridge Wells, are the only places around those parts that significantly tilted towards Remain.

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?


Hi- can you please quote where I said that golf courses= affluence? Or where I said that Bexley & Sidcup voted Tory because it's affluent?

My point was that it's rather different to other London boroughs e.g Lewisham to it's North, where there's a distinct lack of golf courses! The point was made in reference to how B&S is different to other London boroughs.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #815 on: December 04, 2021, 11:30:14 AM »

Well the online reaction to the by-election has been very weird- with the anti Keir left saying it was a disaster based on the vote total being below 2019- when they’ve always been v keen on using % vote share for other metrics.

A funny example of the Labour forever war is the endless fight to spin by-election results- I remember Copeland in 2017 being blamed on Blair among other things.

Mr T making one of his "rare interventions" (that claim by his sycophants is genuinely side splitting) in domestic politics just days before polling to denounce Brexit - and, by perfectly logical inference, all those who had voted for it less than a year earlier - was an undoubted factor, and yes it was actually mentioned on that fabled semi-mythical "doorstep".

Almost as if he wanted Labour to lose that one, perish the very thought eh.

Which does of course not alter the main culpability for the result lying with Corbyn - in particular his almost insultingly bad local interview re the nuclear question will live long in infamy.
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Blair
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« Reply #816 on: December 06, 2021, 12:21:46 PM »

Not sure there’s anything more insufferable than watching Lib Dem’s and Labour activists argue over who is actually best suited to winning this by election.

Equally hilarious to see either side try to climb the high ground.
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« Reply #817 on: December 06, 2021, 01:50:08 PM »

Not sure there’s anything more insufferable than watching Lib Dem’s and Labour activists argue over who is actually best suited to winning this by election.

Equally hilarious to see either side try to climb the high ground.

By default shouldn't the answer at this point always be Labour? The LibDems seem sad and dying at this point--like, even if they were to win, who cares? They're not the future
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YL
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« Reply #818 on: December 06, 2021, 02:06:26 PM »

Not sure there’s anything more insufferable than watching Lib Dem’s and Labour activists argue over who is actually best suited to winning this by election.

Equally hilarious to see either side try to climb the high ground.

By default shouldn't the answer at this point always be Labour? The LibDems seem sad and dying at this point--like, even if they were to win, who cares? They're not the future

No.  It wasn't Labour in Chesham & Amersham, and I don't believe it's Labour here.  (And I don't believe the Labour Party does either, for the most part.  If they really believed those numbers that the campaign released earlier today senior Labour figures would be swarming all over the seat going for the last push to win it, but they're not.)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #819 on: December 06, 2021, 02:14:03 PM »

Mischief as a response to mischief, I think. Anyway, my understanding - this being second hand information from someone who lives there - is that the atmosphere of the campaign is pretty low-key and easy to miss with not much in the way of signs or posters (for anyone) or much sign of activity beyond a degree of leaflet-dumping. Which tends to suggest another low turnout, though we shall see.
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« Reply #820 on: December 07, 2021, 03:44:16 PM »

Do you think places like Medway or Clacton are well off?

As somebody who grew up ten miles from Clacton, the town as a whole isn't well-off (though bits of it, especially Holland-on-Sea, are very far from poor) but the rest of the constituency is decidedly comfortable. And those areas were no less in favour of Brexit than the extremely poor areas in the centre and west of the town. The class cleavage on Brexit was not strong, whereas the age/cultural cleavage was very strong (and Clacton is both poor and extremely elderly.)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #821 on: December 08, 2021, 08:22:45 AM »
« Edited: December 08, 2021, 08:31:46 AM by CumbrianLefty »

Not sure there’s anything more insufferable than watching Lib Dem’s and Labour activists argue over who is actually best suited to winning this by election.

Equally hilarious to see either side try to climb the high ground.

By default shouldn't the answer at this point always be Labour? The LibDems seem sad and dying at this point--like, even if they were to win, who cares? They're not the future

They are genuine political cockroaches and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see them pull off a win next week, especially given the headlines in the run up.
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Continential
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« Reply #822 on: December 08, 2021, 09:52:25 AM »

I doubt the Liberal Democrats will die anytime soon, even if every LibDem MP is defeated hypothetically, they would still have a presence in local councils.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #823 on: December 08, 2021, 10:08:02 AM »


If this is real rather twitter nonsence, this seems a bit too transparently trying to drump up outrage to work.
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« Reply #824 on: December 08, 2021, 03:54:36 PM »

Caveat as below, but the Lib Dems are now favourites with most bookies to win North Shropshire.

BTW betting odds haven't been great at predicting the last two by-elections.  They had the Tories clear favourites in Batley & Spen, and while it was close enough that that wasn't a terrible reflection, they had them at something like 16 to 1 on the day before Chesham & Amersham, and still clear favourites after polls had closed.
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