UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170066 times)
Blair
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« Reply #775 on: December 02, 2021, 03:49:18 AM »

Anyway baseless predictions time.

I'm not going to try raw vote totals but I'd guess a Conservative Majority between 4-6K.
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afleitch
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« Reply #776 on: December 02, 2021, 07:39:43 AM »

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing
They should join the hellhole known as voteuk.

Part hellhole, part bizarro world.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #777 on: December 02, 2021, 07:57:27 AM »

Anyway baseless predictions time.

I'm not going to try raw vote totals but I'd guess a Conservative Majority between 4-6K.

I'm not going to guess at the outcome, but I have a hunch turnout will drop more than is usually the case for a by-election, to somewhere in the region of 40-45%.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #778 on: December 02, 2021, 08:05:46 AM »

Anyway baseless predictions time.

I'm not going to try raw vote totals but I'd guess a Conservative Majority between 4-6K.
I agree with your prediction, the conservatives have done a great job in expectation managment while the oppostion has gotten ahead of themselves.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #779 on: December 02, 2021, 10:43:20 AM »

Someone keeps posting rubbish about betting odds for North Shropshire by election on Twitter and it turns out they’re a former Lib Dem MP. Just embarrassing
They should join the hellhole known as voteuk.

Part hellhole, part bizarro world.

And part one of the most indispensable sites on the web, despite the above.
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YL
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« Reply #780 on: December 02, 2021, 12:04:33 PM »

For Old Bexley & Sidcup one interesting thing will be to see how well Reform UK do.  They've put in a fair amount of effort, the seat is reasonably friendly to them demographically, and their leader is the candidate, so if they're going to be much more than just another party on the ballot paper getting a few percent they ought to be getting a decent vote.  I just have the feeling, though, that they've not really managed to establish their new brand (not that I'm in the target audience).

Can they get over 10%?
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Cassius
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« Reply #781 on: December 02, 2021, 12:38:06 PM »

For Old Bexley & Sidcup one interesting thing will be to see how well Reform UK do.  They've put in a fair amount of effort, the seat is reasonably friendly to them demographically, and their leader is the candidate, so if they're going to be much more than just another party on the ballot paper getting a few percent they ought to be getting a decent vote.  I just have the feeling, though, that they've not really managed to establish their new brand (not that I'm in the target audience).

Can they get over 10%?

I think the sidelining of environmental issues due to Johnson repeatedly punching himself in the face over the last month will probably keep their share low. Had all the attention been on the possible costs of Net Zero and the PM kowtowing to ‘woke environmentalists’ they might have been able to pick up a decent vote from disgruntled Tories and protest voters. We’ll see though.
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rc18
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« Reply #782 on: December 02, 2021, 02:02:26 PM »
« Edited: December 02, 2021, 02:12:55 PM by rc18 »

I expect Reform will save their deposit, unlike the LDs, and 10-15% is certainly feasible in a seat like this. I think that most of the Tory protest vote will be of the sit-on-your-hands variety rather than directly lost to anyone else though.
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« Reply #783 on: December 02, 2021, 02:46:02 PM »

Yes, Old Bexley and Sidcup is ancestrally Tory, but in a *very* different way to C&A.

The Tory protest vote is most likely to sit at home rather than consider another party. The poor weather in this part of the world today won't have helped.
I don't think ReformUK will get to double digits, but they should save their deposit reasonably comofrtably. It's good demographically with it being leave, very white, and well-off working class. They've also run a reasonably high profile campaign, but the party is a shell of its former Brexit self.
The Lib Dems have no history here and it isn't fertile ground at all (not as wealthy, educated or remain as C&A). They'll likely end up a point or two short of saving their deposit.
I'm interested to see Labour's numbers. There won't be many switchers, but a score above the 29.3% they got in 2017 would be very reasonable and it'd be an excellent night if they got to 1997's 35.1% no matter what the pundits say. I think the latter is quite unlikely, but it's quite dependent on how well RefomUK do.
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Blair
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« Reply #784 on: December 02, 2021, 04:05:20 PM »

Reform need a better name, a leader who isn’t just an ex donor and some better talent- it’s still a shell of the Brexit party elements.

I’m surprised it hasn’t merged with Reclaim- would be a lot more potent.

Yes, Old Bexley and Sidcup is ancestrally Tory, but in a *very* different way to C&A.

The Tory protest vote is most likely to sit at home rather than consider another party. The poor weather in this part of the world today won't have helped.
I don't think ReformUK will get to double digits, but they should save their deposit reasonably comofrtably. It's good demographically with it being leave, very white, and well-off working class. They've also run a reasonably high profile campaign, but the party is a shell of its former Brexit self.
The Lib Dems have no history here and it isn't fertile ground at all (not as wealthy, educated or remain as C&A). They'll likely end up a point or two short of saving their deposit.
I'm interested to see Labour's numbers. There won't be many switchers, but a score above the 29.3% they got in 2017 would be very reasonable and it'd be an excellent night if they got to 1997's 35.1% no matter what the pundits say. I think the latter is quite unlikely, but it's quite dependent on how well RefomUK do.

I’m not sure- despite what FBPE Twitter says most voters especially in by-elections know how to vote if they want to punish the Tories. So I think you’ll see some Tory-Labour switchers.

The weather was fine and not an issue- other than it being dark. You can tell this from the numerous photos of activists in the seat.
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« Reply #785 on: December 02, 2021, 07:22:26 PM »

Turnout 34.8% with 21,788 votes cast. It was 69.8% and 46,145 at the 2019 General Election.

People watching the count estimate a 3,000 to 5,000 Conservative majority which would be a huge fall from their 2019 majority of 18,952 in numerical terms. In terms of share, it would mean a drop from 41.1 points in 2019 to 14-23 points.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #786 on: December 02, 2021, 07:38:07 PM »


And this, ladies and gentlemen, may well be the most significant figure of the night.
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Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela
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« Reply #787 on: December 02, 2021, 09:00:44 PM »

Fairly crap Tory result and decent Labour one (thanks partly to the crap turnout), and this does provide the first piece of evidence we have that anyone might care at all about Reform.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #788 on: December 02, 2021, 09:25:42 PM »

A poor Tory result would have been below 50%, and a genuinely good Labour one above one third.

As it is, Tories can be relieved and Labour moderately pleased (though not ecstatic) Greens will be pleased to have actually edged up and overtaken the LibDems, and Reform did the minimum required in holding their deposit - though they may have hoped for more. Other right wing outfits bombed.
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Boobs
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« Reply #789 on: December 02, 2021, 09:51:00 PM »

Onto Shropshire. Imagine that’ll get more attention by the nature of how that vacancy came to be, although I’m not certain that the end result would be much different than Bexley.
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YL
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« Reply #790 on: December 03, 2021, 03:27:34 AM »

My thoughts:

Tories: stayed above 50% and will probably not be too unhappy with that in the circumstances.
Labour: OK, but not stellar, result in hostile territory, though might have hoped for a little bit better given the squeeze on the Lib Dems.
Reform UK: not great; hard to see them being much more than a minor annoyance if they can't get more than 7% in a by-election in a seat like that.
Greens: at least their share went up.
Lib Dems: the result looks poor, but they fairly obviously didn't try and so probably aren't that bothered.
Others: not much to say; sadly no-one was beaten by the Loony.

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TheTide
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« Reply #791 on: December 03, 2021, 03:41:31 AM »

About 10% for the right-of-Tories parties.
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Pericles
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« Reply #792 on: December 03, 2021, 03:59:18 AM »

It seems like the kind of result that is average for everyone, and even if by-elections held any predictive value for the next election, this doesn't give us any new information.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #793 on: December 03, 2021, 05:47:19 AM »

Onto Shropshire. Imagine that’ll get more attention by the nature of how that vacancy came to be, although I’m not certain that the end result would be much different than Bexley.

Well its not certain, but its also quite possible.

A reminder that C&A happened when the Tories were still riding high in the polls.....
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rc18
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« Reply #794 on: December 03, 2021, 07:48:47 AM »

North Shropshire is as similar to Chesham & Amersham as Old Bexley & Sidcup is, i.e. not at all.

The Paterson issue would be a bigger problem if he was standing for re-election. This alone is probably not enough to sink them here. The new candidate, while bearing the sin of being a Brummie, otherwise has an impressive résumé.

The worry from the Tories will be another sub-par turnout from general disaffection. Ironically all the talk of a possible Lib Dem gain might help them to consolidate their vote a little.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #795 on: December 03, 2021, 07:58:06 AM »

Yes, but the new Tory hopeful very much being an outsider *does* matter. Its the sort of thing you can get away with easily enough at a GE (Sunak being parachuted into Hague's seat being a classic example) but is much more of a risk in byelections.

And the way this contest came about won't matter as much as if Paterson was standing again, but it very much is a factor still - and one reason why Tories are nervous.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #796 on: December 03, 2021, 09:22:30 AM »

Yes, but the new Tory hopeful very much being an outsider *does* matter. Its the sort of thing you can get away with easily enough at a GE (Sunak being parachuted into Hague's seat being a classic example) but is much more of a risk in byelections.

Hague being parachuted into what became Hague's seat was another example! But from what I understand the issue with the Conservative candidate isn't so much that He's Not Even From Round Here, but the parachute has not landed particularly well and that he's said some things that might not go down that well locally. Though anyone who thinks that running a random local councillor would have been a good idea demonstrates a certain lack of knowledge of the constituency - what they should probably have looked for is someone local and not previously that politically active but a firm Conservative. Hardly rare in the area.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #797 on: December 03, 2021, 10:15:54 AM »

I think the turnout in Bexley does make an upset in North Shropshire more likely - it suggests the Tory base is very grumpy indeed right now. Whilst the Tory base (and especially the base in Bexley) isn't going to vote Labour (class-based voting amongst a certain sort of Tory is very definitely not dead), it's a lot more willing to flirt with the Lib Dems to send a message.

I would think the Conservatives are still favoured, but there's more reason to be concerned than there was 24 hours ago.
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DL
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« Reply #798 on: December 03, 2021, 10:36:34 AM »

Has anyone noticed the irony that Old Bexley and Sidcup is apparently this odd enclave of pro-Brexit sentiment in London - and yet the MP for the riding for half a century was none other than Ted Heath - the most pro-EU politician of all time!
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #799 on: December 03, 2021, 12:04:38 PM »

That has, indeed, been noted Smiley
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