UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it is worth noting that his last few previous electoral campaigns have been failures.

If this one isn't, then questions will still have to be asked.

[Lord Halifax]

How seriously should you take the whole Galloway show and its ability to spoil Labour's chances? Does Leadbeater still have a shot at winning?

[Conservatopia]

Batley and Spen by-election today.

I'm going to be bold with my prediction (why not?) and say:
- Tories win
- Tories increase their share from 2019 by around 8%
- Galloway and Leadbeater are within 5% of each other
- Galloway comes ahead of Leadbeater

So something like:
Conservatives 40-47%
Galloway 23-33%
Labour 21-30%
LibDems 2%

I am going to either look really smart or really foolish in 24 hours.  Probably the latter

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Batley and Spen by-election today.

I'm going to be bold with my prediction (why not?) and say:
- Tories win
- Tories increase their share from 2019 by around 8%
- Galloway and Leadbeater are within 5% of each other
- Galloway comes ahead of Leadbeater

So something like:
Conservatives 40-47%
Galloway 23-33%
Labour 21-30%
LibDems 2%

I am going to either look really smart or really foolish in 24 hours.  Probably the latter

I would be extremely suprised I'd Galloway breaks 5%, European Muslims generaly haven't had a problem with LGBT candidates and in unsure why it would be different here

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Batley and Spen by-election today.

I'm going to be bold with my prediction (why not?) and say:
- Tories win
- Tories increase their share from 2019 by around 8%
- Galloway and Leadbeater are within 5% of each other
- Galloway comes ahead of Leadbeater

So something like:
Conservatives 40-47%
Galloway 23-33%
Labour 21-30%
LibDems 2%

I am going to either look really smart or really foolish in 24 hours.  Probably the latter

I would be extremely suprised I'd Galloway breaks 5%, European Muslims generaly haven't had a problem with LGBT candidates and in unsure why it would be different here

He's the main 'protest' candidate which is always worth a fair few votes in a by-election. I doubt he'll reach the 20s but 10% seems quite plausible.

[Cassius]

Batley and Spen by-election today.

I'm going to be bold with my prediction (why not?) and say:
- Tories win
- Tories increase their share from 2019 by around 8%
- Galloway and Leadbeater are within 5% of each other
- Galloway comes ahead of Leadbeater

So something like:
Conservatives 40-47%
Galloway 23-33%
Labour 21-30%
LibDems 2%

I am going to either look really smart or really foolish in 24 hours.  Probably the latter

I would be extremely suprised I'd Galloway breaks 5%, European Muslims generaly haven't had a problem with LGBT candidates and in unsure why it would be different here

He's the main 'protest' candidate which is always worth a fair few votes in a by-election. I doubt he'll reach the 20s but 10% seems quite plausible.

Yeah, I’m sceptical that Galloway will poll particularly well, 5-10% seems a reasonable figure. I think the issue here is that a lot of people are likely conflating Batley and Spen with Bradford West, even though the latter has a much larger Muslim population (second highest percentage for any constituency in the country I believe). Now, obviously, not every Galloway voter is a Muslim and certainly not every Muslim is a Galloway voter, even so it seems that the seat’s Muslim communities are his key support base and they’re simply not large enough to give him a huge result like the one he got in Bradford West. Still, 5-10% could well make the difference and deny it to Labour, but I’m inclined to think they’re still in with a shout and that it will be close.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I realy do think Galloway is vastly overhyped, he offers nothing of any interest to people not even the most basic form of anti-lockdown populism. Muslim communities are deeply culturally conservative but frankly have transactional rather than ideological relation with labour parties, voting for them because of a combination of economic policy helping them, distate for xenophobia from conservative parties and better immigration policy. An LGBT candidate doesn't bother them much in that regard because it doesn't upset that transactional relationship(A non-muslim white canidate, A muslim LGBTQ candidate would go down horribly)
 
 I honestly think labour will hold this seat and it won't be as narrow as many commentaries are saying. This isn't a marginal labour seat, they have a good canidate while the tories have parachuted in a nobody. Furthermore the governments pushback of the full reopening as well as increasing delta cases is going to squeeze in their popularity.

Hancock's scandal is also the top of the news story which is unlikely to help the government.

[cp]

Agreed that Galloway isn't likely to break 15%. A more interesting question is whether his vote total will end up being greater than whatever Labour loses by, should they lose.

[Geoffrey Howe]

My hunch is a good result for the Tories, most likely a gain.

[rc18]

I may be totally wrong, but the mood music I'm hearing suggests to me a Labour hold.

[Oryxslayer]

I predict Tories win, and it won't be because of the quixotic Galloway.

[beesley]

I may be totally wrong, but the mood music I'm hearing suggests to me a Labour hold.

From...?

[rc18]

I may be totally wrong, but the mood music I'm hearing suggests to me a Labour hold.

From...?

Just reading between the lines of what various sources are saying; activists/campaigners and politicians.

As I said, could be totally wrong. I sense though that Labour are much more bullish after a significantly more robust by-election campaign than their recent efforts.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I never trust sources. I'm going to say narrow Labour win, joke turnout, Galloway just wins his deposit. This is based on absolutely nothing btw.

[Zinneke]

Are people there really bothered with politics this time of year, with the sun out, England just beat Germany, saturation of media...loads of factors point to a low turn out, activist head count despite the considerable hype the media has tried to drum up for Galloway and the end of Starmer.

[Tintrlvr]

Are people there really bothered with politics this time of year, with the sun out, England just beat Germany...loads of factors point to a low turn out activist head count despite the considerable hype the media has tried to drum up for Galloway and the end of Starmer.

Honestly the media's long-term focus on this race makes me think big swings are less likely (and thus a Labour hold). By-elections seem to be much more likely to have sensational results the less attention that was paid to them beforehand.

[Conservatopia]

I think it's brilliant that we all have very different opinions on what the outcome will be.

Somebody will be smug tomorrow morning.

[beesley]

I predict there will be three saved deposits.

[LabourJersey]

My study abroad roommate's cousin's best mate works at the Batley and Spen Gregg's, and is certain the Tories will win   /s


Anyway I'm really intrigued how this election turns out.

[Roblox]

Gonna guess...

Conservatives: 46%
Labour: 40%
Galloway: 8%
Others: 6%

[thumb21]

I'm half expecting a 20 point Tory win but my head says the Tories will win but not a landslide. Unlike Hartlepool, there isn't a popular and active Tory mayor and Labour seems to be running a better campaign than their disasterous one in Hartlepool. The local elections were also basically even in Batley and Spen.

My guess:
45% Tory
42% Labour
10% Galloway

[cp]

Before the results come in, I just want it known that my dyslexic brain has been calling this place 'Spatley and Benn' for the past 10 weeks.

Also, whatever way you say it it sounds like a 3rd rate comedy duo.

[beesley]

Before the results come in, I just want it known that my dyslexic brain has been calling this place 'Spatley and Benn' for the past 10 weeks.

Also, whatever way you say it it sounds like a 3rd rate comedy duo.

That reminded me of Mr. Benn:

[Continential]

Conservatives 47%
Labour 39%
Galloway 11%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I never trust sources.

Often sensible. Particularly when - as in this case - the place in question is so demographically and geographically polarised that in practice it would be very hard to get a sure sense of anything, even with lots of information...