UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170202 times)
beesley
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« Reply #175 on: May 05, 2021, 02:28:52 PM »

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

Nobody is required to bring their own pencil, it is just encouraged.

You’re allowed to use a pen aren’t you?

Yes. If I'm correct, the reason why polling stations are stocked with pencils rather than pens is to avoid smudging of ink which could make your vote unclear.
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Continential
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« Reply #176 on: May 05, 2021, 08:35:51 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 08:52:41 AM by Ishan »

Hartlepool: Labour
West Midlands: Conservative
Tees Valley Conservative
London: Labour
Scotland: Pro-Independence Minority (SNP/Greens) with SNP as the largest party

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beesley
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« Reply #177 on: May 06, 2021, 08:05:08 AM »

Not sure why the mayoral predictions are here, but nevertheless:

Hartlepool: Within 5% either way.
Cambs, Tees Valley, and West Midlands go Conservative.
Greater Manchester, Liverpool, London, West of England, and West Yorkshire go Labour.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #178 on: May 06, 2021, 08:47:28 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #179 on: May 06, 2021, 08:49:14 AM »

I think a lot of people need a holiday.
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ElectionObserver
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« Reply #180 on: May 06, 2021, 09:48:00 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

Are we expecting Brabin to go?

In Hartlepool, it will certainly be much closer than that poll predicted, but I still think the Tories will gain it by a couple of points.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #181 on: May 06, 2021, 10:09:20 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #182 on: May 06, 2021, 10:20:40 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.


From what I've read, yes; and she has admitted as much. It's something to do with being police and crime commissioner.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #183 on: May 06, 2021, 10:40:38 AM »

It looks like Starmer's "insiders" have moved on from Hartlepool to start dooming about a byelection in Batley and Spen that hasn't even been made official yet Roll Eyes

All that i will say for now is - yes at a superficial level the results of the two seats at the last GE look reasonably similar, but there are also genuinely differences. Which should make it an easier defence for Labour, always assuming that they don't totally mess things up.

Would Brabin even have to resign as an M.P if she was elected mayor?  Dan Jarvis is both an M.P and the mayor of Sheffield City Region.


From what I've read, yes; and she has admitted as much. It's something to do with being police and crime commissioner.


Thanks for the information!  Smiley
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« Reply #184 on: May 06, 2021, 11:11:28 AM »

So it appears Brabin has to go if elected mayor. Not because of the mayoral role, but because it includes the PCC powers.

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1390222580414656516
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #185 on: May 06, 2021, 12:12:31 PM »

I think a lot of people need a holiday.

Didn’t they just have one on Monday? Not that I could use one on this side of the pond though.
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beesley
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« Reply #186 on: May 06, 2021, 01:38:21 PM »

I think a lot of people need a holiday.

Didn’t they just have one on Monday? Not that I could use one on this side of the pond though.

Yes, and it pissed it down all day.
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Pericles
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« Reply #187 on: May 06, 2021, 04:36:30 PM »

I don't believe the Hartlepool polls. The Brexit Party vote would have to split very strongly for the Tories, and Starmer has improved on Corbyn both nationwide and it appears the Brexit divide has reduced. However, perhaps candidate quality and bad luck has taken a Labour marginal to a Tory marginal.
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TheTide
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« Reply #188 on: May 06, 2021, 05:06:20 PM »

I don't believe the Hartlepool polls. The Brexit Party vote would have to split very strongly for the Tories, and Starmer has improved on Corbyn both nationwide and it appears the Brexit divide has reduced. However, perhaps candidate quality and bad luck has taken a Labour marginal to a Tory marginal.

If the Labour vote is depressed (as it may be, per some suggestions) whilst the Tory vote holds up better than Labour's then the Brexit Party vote wouldn't need to do so.
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Blair
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« Reply #189 on: May 06, 2021, 05:08:27 PM »

Would be shocked if I wake up to a Labour win
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #190 on: May 06, 2021, 05:17:24 PM »

One thing to note don't really know what the impact of the changes wrought by the pandemic will be on turnout patterns (and I mean partisan turnout patterns as much as overall), but it's certainly always been a possibility that the answer would be 'bad for Labour'.

Assuming a loss, I'll make another observation: there's an element of classic Labour Party path dependency here, a series of poor decisions compounding each other. Because while it is true that rushing the by-election was a mistake and while it is true that a single candidate shortlist was an error (not even because a 'better' candidate might have been found, but because road-testing is useful!), it is also true that Hill should never have been allowed to run again. Lessons need to be learned here, but question, of course, is whether the Labour Party is even capable of that.
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Mike88
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« Reply #191 on: May 06, 2021, 06:09:01 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 06:16:06 PM by Mike88 »

The Sky News reporter on the count says that the talk on the ground is that Labour is being "slaughter" and that the Conservatives are "walking away" with it.
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Crane
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« Reply #192 on: May 06, 2021, 06:47:00 PM »

Lol Starmer is a joke!
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #193 on: May 06, 2021, 08:06:01 PM »

Confirmed turnout in Sunderland is >50%.

Also reported via Sky that the talk in the room is the Conservatives have won, its just a question of margins. Also Houchen is dominating.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #194 on: May 06, 2021, 08:50:38 PM »



+1 Conservative. Its gonna be big if their conceding before a final count.
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Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« Reply #195 on: May 06, 2021, 09:00:22 PM »


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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #196 on: May 06, 2021, 09:15:00 PM »

Broadly I can identify 3 main reasons behind Labour's poor showing beyond the global trends.



1. Brexit has won: Whatever negative effects that may have come from brexist are masked by the pandemic meaning that a voter hasn't felt any direct negative effects from brexit given the vastly more disruptive pandemic.

2. Successful Vaccination: The UK's vaccination efforts have been far superior to that of the EU once again reinforcing things in favour of the Brexist Side. Furthermore the return to normal under the Tories has begun which has given the Tory Party a large popularity boost.

3. Labour Running on Nothing: Labour literary had no policies or ideas to run on beyond generic tory sleeze which the public is already tired off and see the tories as finally providing stability.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #197 on: May 06, 2021, 09:19:32 PM »


How can this be?! Starmer was a C E N T R I S T
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #198 on: May 06, 2021, 09:22:54 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2021, 09:43:46 PM by Oryxslayer »

Returning officer corrects rumors and says turnout was 47% for the local elections. 42.5% for By-Election. Lower at 41.7% for P&C and mayor. Hartlepool about to begin declarations, but looks to start with councilors.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #199 on: May 06, 2021, 09:28:48 PM »

Is there a live stream of the election coverage?
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