UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

There is a wide range of red flags - again, the 'effective sample size of 302' is enough of one in itself - but this will do as a starter:



Top is the unweighted sample, bottom the weighted sample. A quick comparison to the actual GE results in the constituency may be instructive.

[CumbrianLefty]

Survation have argued the recalled 2019 BxP figure is plausible and goes with previous precedent. But the fact remains that dropping from 28% to 3% is of a different order than from (say) 5% to 1%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Survation have argued the recalled 2019 BxP figure is plausible and goes with previous precedent. But the fact remains that dropping from 28% to 3% is of a different order from (say) 5% to 1%.

It is absolutely not plausible. And, of course, it is hardly the only problem with the GE recall figures there.

[Blair]

Oh joy this poll is leading to more battles in the forever war... with the CWU claiming the poll is fine as national polls are only based on slightly bigger samples.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh joy this poll is leading to more battles in the forever war... with the CWU claiming the poll is fine as national polls are only based on slightly bigger samples.

Hahahahahahahhahaha

[Blair]

Thelma Walker will be on the ballot as an independent as NIP failed to register in time... I doubt it makes a huge difference but still interesting

[YL]

16 candidates for Hartlepool

David Bettney (SDP)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Hilton Dawson (North East Party) [1]
Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)
Rachel Featherstone (Green)
Adam Gaines (Independent) [2]
Andrew Hagon (Lib Dem)
Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Chris Killick (no description)
Sam Lee (Independent) [4]
Claire Martin (Heritage Party) [5]
Jill Mortimer (Con)
John Prescott (Reform UK) [6]
Thelma Walker (Independent) [7]
Ralph Ward-Jackson (Independent) [8]
Paul Williams (Lab)

[1] Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre 1997 to 2005
[2] Pub owner in the town
[3] anti lockdown party with quite a few council election candidates
[4] has a Facebook page, and has some connections with the local football club; I don't know if she's ever dressed up as a monkey
[5] UKIP splinter
[6] no, not that one; Reform UK are the re-branded Brexit Party
[7] the Northern Independence Party weren't registered in time, so she's an Independent on the ballot
[8] appears to be a relative of the man who founded West Hartlepool, of the same name; hard to Google because of that!

[Coldstream]

16 candidates for Hartlepool

David Bettney (SDP)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Hilton Dawson (North East Party) [1]
Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)
Rachel Featherstone (Green)
Adam Gaines (Independent) [2]
Andrew Hagon (Lib Dem)
Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Chris Killick (no description)
Sam Lee (Independent) [4]
Claire Martin (Heritage Party) [5]
Jill Mortimer (Con)
John Prescott (Reform UK) [6]
Thelma Walker (Independent) [7]
Ralph Ward-Jackson (Independent) [8]
Paul Williams (Lab)

[1] Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre 1997 to 2005
[2] Pub owner in the town
[3] anti lockdown party with quite a few council election candidates
[4] has a Facebook page, and has some connections with the local football club; I don't know if she's ever dressed up as a monkey
[5] UKIP splinter
[6] no, not that one; Reform UK are the re-branded Brexit Party
[7] the Northern Independence Party weren't registered in time, so she's an Independent on the ballot
[8] appears to be a relative of the man who founded West Hartlepool, of the same name; hard to Google because of that!

8 tried to stand as the Brexit and then Tory candidate in 2019 but was denied both times.

[Lord Halifax]

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?

[Lord Halifax]

How likely are we to get a new constituency poll from a quality pollster?

[Conservatopia]

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?

In a word: yes.
But it might be closer than I initially thought.

[YL]

Eight candidates for Airdrie & Shotts:

Stephen Arrundale (Lib Dem)
Ben Callaghan (Con)
Martyn Greene (Reform UK)
Donald Mackay (UKIP)
Neil Manson (SDP)
Jonathan Stanley (Scottish Unionist)
Kenneth Stevenson (Lab)
Anum Qaisar-Javed (SNP)

No Abla (or even Alba)

[Maik Otter]

Reichsbürger at elections!

Have there ever been subtitution candidates in the UKs FPTP elections?

[Gary JG]

Reichsbürger at elections!

Have there ever been subtitution candidates in the UKs FPTP elections?

I do not understand what relevance the German Reichsbürger movement has to a UK election. I am not aware that the somewhat similar sovereign citizen people, sometimes active in the UK, have ever involved themselves in electoral politics.

I presume by a substitution candidate you mean someone who is nominated to fill the vacancy, if the elected candidate ceases to be a member of the legislature, without the need for a by-election. No such concept exists or has ever existed in UK Parliamentary electoral law.

During the world wars the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties entered into electoral pacts, so they would nominate candidates only to fill the vacancies in seats they already held. However there was nothing to stop Independent or other party candidates from contesting and sometimes winning by-elections.

[StateBoiler]

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

There is a wide range of red flags - again, the 'effective sample size of 302' is enough of one in itself - but this will do as a starter:



Top is the unweighted sample, bottom the weighted sample. A quick comparison to the actual GE results in the constituency may be instructive.

So they're intentionally undercounting the number of people that voted for the Brexit Party in 2019, and the Tories are winning the poll. I'm trying to think what they're trying to pull here if it's not just one of incompetence.

[YL]

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

There is a wide range of red flags - again, the 'effective sample size of 302' is enough of one in itself - but this will do as a starter:



Top is the unweighted sample, bottom the weighted sample. A quick comparison to the actual GE results in the constituency may be instructive.

So they're intentionally undercounting the number of people that voted for the Brexit Party in 2019, and the Tories are winning the poll. I'm trying to think what they're trying to pull here if it's not just one of incompetence.

I doubt it was intentional.

They claim that it's false recall: many people saying they voted Tory actually voted Brexit Party.  This is probably true to some extent, but the extent to which the poll shows it stretches credulity a bit.

[Lord Halifax]

The UK press seems filled with stories about how the Tories are going to win Hartlepool and interviews with locals confirming that people are fed up with being taken for granted by Labour and are voting Tory but won't say so publicly etc. Is that just because it's the most exciting narrative or is this race actually trending Conservative now?

How important is the accusation that the Labour candidate helped shut down the local hospital?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The UK press seems filled with stories about how the Tories are going to win Hartlepool and interviews with locals confirming that people are fed up with being taken for granted by Labour and are voting Tory but won't say so publicly etc. Is that just because it's the most exciting narrative or is this race actually trending Conservative now?

The question to ask yourself is how easy it is likely to be, given the current restrictions (even easing as they are), to even find people happy to speak at great length to journalists about their political preferences. Or even how easy it is for journalists to actually get there at the moment.

Press narratives about by-elections are generally not based on much. Journalists mostly do not know the first thing about the places reported from and spend most of the (usually very limited) time spent in the constituency finding anecdotes or other information that supports the line they've already decided to to take. Sometimes they end up being 'correct', but sometimes they are miles out - there was a press consensus, for instance, that the Oldham West & Royton by-election was going to be very tight between UKIP and Labour and that UKIP were perhaps even slight favourites.

Though by-elections are hard to get a handle on - even for the campaigns! - at the best of times, and these are not those. A lot of the usual tools used to gauge what is happening are less reliable than normal or flat-out off the table.

[CumbrianLefty]

The UK press seems filled with stories about how the Tories are going to win Hartlepool and interviews with locals confirming that people are fed up with being taken for granted by Labour and are voting Tory but won't say so publicly etc. Is that just because it's the most exciting narrative or is this race actually trending Conservative now?

How important is the accusation that the Labour candidate helped shut down the local hospital?

Have to say, that is the bit that doesn't really ring true to me. Labour to Tory switchers in recent years have mostly been "loud and proud" about it - indeed if anything people have been more likely to talk about it than actually do it.

The hospital accusation was basically a Guido Fawkes smear, of course that doesn't in itself prevent it gaining traction (sadly) but I'm not sure if it actually has done so much.

[CumbrianLefty]

The UK press seems filled with stories about how the Tories are going to win Hartlepool and interviews with locals confirming that people are fed up with being taken for granted by Labour and are voting Tory but won't say so publicly etc. Is that just because it's the most exciting narrative or is this race actually trending Conservative now?

The question to ask yourself is how easy it is likely to be, given the current restrictions (even easing as they are), to even find people happy to speak at great length to journalists about their political preferences. Or even how easy it is for journalists to actually get there at the moment.

Press narratives about by-elections are generally not based on much. Journalists mostly do not know the first thing about the places reported from and spend most of the (usually very limited) time spent in the constituency finding anecdotes or other information that supports the line they've already decided to to take. Sometimes they end up being 'correct', but sometimes they are miles out - there was a press consensus, for instance, that the Oldham West & Royton by-election was going to be very tight between UKIP and Labour and that UKIP were perhaps even slight favourites.

Though by-elections are hard to get a handle on - even for the campaigns! - at the best of times, and these are not those. A lot of the usual tools used to gauge what is happening are less reliable than normal or flat-out off the table.

Oldham East was a bit of an odd one actually - its easy to poke fun at the media "hot takes" given the actual result (and I did it myself) but the predominant feeling amongst Labour people *on the ground* in the days before the vote was that it was very likely going to be close.

Labour's big win was foreseen by genuinely few.

[beesley]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Wrong thread, I'll respond in the other one.

[Geoffrey Howe]

It now looks like Sadiq Khan will do very well in the London Mayoral election. Do you think his coattails will flip some GLA constituencies?

I'm thinking particularly of South West (Hounslow, Kingston, Richmond) and West Central (Westminster, Kensington, Hammersmith).

Havering and Redbridge less likely I think because of the strong UKIP vote last time.

Wrong thread, I'll respond in the other one.

Good point 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oldham East was a bit of an odd one actually - its easy to poke fun at the media "hot takes" given the actual result (and I did it myself) but the predominant feeling amongst Labour people *on the ground* in the days before the vote was that it was very likely going to be close.

Labour's big win was foreseen by genuinely few.

Not that odd because results do quite often come as a surprise to the various campaigns!

[Geoffrey Howe]

Why is Sadiq so far ahead in the opinion polls for mayor? He hasn’t been a particularly good mayor in my opinion, but objectively he hasn’t done all that much. Now he has done some stuff which upsets outer London voters - for example the ULEZ expansion*. So I’m not sure why he is so far ahead in the polls. Ken Livingstone never got over 57% of the vote yet some polls have Khan >60%. Clearly Shaun Bailey isn’t a gifted campaigner, but Khan is doing very well in the first preferences.

All I can think of is that the Tories have become significantly more unpopular in London thanks to Brexit. But then Zac Goldsmith wasn’t crushed (and did very well in places like Richmond) but he was campaigning for Brexit and had a lot of issues around Islamophobia.

*Although that was sort of Mr Shapps trying to make Khan unpopular...

[Blair]

If anybody still cares the SDP appear to have been campaigning with a Tank.

I've heard various (and usual) rumblings that its not looking great for Labour; but it certainly doesn't feel the same way that Copeland felt- although that seat was a lot more marginal & had the issue of Sellafield