UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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April 21, 2021, 04:21:52 PM

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  UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #100 on: April 06, 2021, 09:08:13 AM »

Would be interested to know why... I’m quite thick when it comes to polling!

There is a wide range of red flags - again, the 'effective sample size of 302' is enough of one in itself - but this will do as a starter:



Top is the unweighted sample, bottom the weighted sample. A quick comparison to the actual GE results in the constituency may be instructive.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #101 on: April 07, 2021, 09:03:51 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 12:00:28 PM by CumbrianLeftie »

Survation have argued the recalled 2019 BxP figure is plausible and goes with previous precedent. But the fact remains that dropping from 28% to 3% is of a different order than from (say) 5% to 1%.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #102 on: April 07, 2021, 09:08:03 AM »

Survation have argued the recalled 2019 BxP figure is plausible and goes with previous precedent. But the fact remains that dropping from 28% to 3% is of a different order from (say) 5% to 1%.

It is absolutely not plausible. And, of course, it is hardly the only problem with the GE recall figures there.
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Blair
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« Reply #103 on: April 08, 2021, 08:39:10 AM »

Oh joy this poll is leading to more battles in the forever war... with the CWU claiming the poll is fine as national polls are only based on slightly bigger samples.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #104 on: April 08, 2021, 11:25:03 AM »

Oh joy this poll is leading to more battles in the forever war... with the CWU claiming the poll is fine as national polls are only based on slightly bigger samples.

Hahahahahahahhahaha
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Blair
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« Reply #105 on: April 08, 2021, 12:55:11 PM »

Thelma Walker will be on the ballot as an independent as NIP failed to register in time... I doubt it makes a huge difference but still interesting
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YL
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« Reply #106 on: April 08, 2021, 01:01:16 PM »

16 candidates for Hartlepool

David Bettney (SDP)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Hilton Dawson (North East Party) [1]
Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)
Rachel Featherstone (Green)
Adam Gaines (Independent) [2]
Andrew Hagon (Lib Dem)
Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Chris Killick (no description)
Sam Lee (Independent) [4]
Claire Martin (Heritage Party) [5]
Jill Mortimer (Con)
John Prescott (Reform UK) [6]
Thelma Walker (Independent) [7]
Ralph Ward-Jackson (Independent) [8]
Paul Williams (Lab)

[1] Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre 1997 to 2005
[2] Pub owner in the town
[3] anti lockdown party with quite a few council election candidates
[4] has a Facebook page, and has some connections with the local football club; I don't know if she's ever dressed up as a monkey
[5] UKIP splinter
[6] no, not that one; Reform UK are the re-branded Brexit Party
[7] the Northern Independence Party weren't registered in time, so she's an Independent on the ballot
[8] appears to be a relative of the man who founded West Hartlepool, of the same name; hard to Google because of that!


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Coldstream
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« Reply #107 on: April 08, 2021, 02:54:29 PM »

16 candidates for Hartlepool

David Bettney (SDP)
The Incredible Flying Brick (OMRLP)
Hilton Dawson (North East Party) [1]
Gemma Evans (Women's Equality Party)
Rachel Featherstone (Green)
Adam Gaines (Independent) [2]
Andrew Hagon (Lib Dem)
Steve Jack (Freedom Alliance) [3]
Chris Killick (no description)
Sam Lee (Independent) [4]
Claire Martin (Heritage Party) [5]
Jill Mortimer (Con)
John Prescott (Reform UK) [6]
Thelma Walker (Independent) [7]
Ralph Ward-Jackson (Independent) [8]
Paul Williams (Lab)

[1] Labour MP for Lancaster & Wyre 1997 to 2005
[2] Pub owner in the town
[3] anti lockdown party with quite a few council election candidates
[4] has a Facebook page, and has some connections with the local football club; I don't know if she's ever dressed up as a monkey
[5] UKIP splinter
[6] no, not that one; Reform UK are the re-branded Brexit Party
[7] the Northern Independence Party weren't registered in time, so she's an Independent on the ballot
[8] appears to be a relative of the man who founded West Hartlepool, of the same name; hard to Google because of that!




8 tried to stand as the Brexit and then Tory candidate in 2019 but was denied both times.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #108 on: April 08, 2021, 04:26:00 PM »

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #109 on: April 08, 2021, 06:02:22 PM »

How likely are we to get a new constituency poll from a quality pollster?
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #110 on: April 09, 2021, 07:28:36 AM »

I think there is far more chance of a popular localist politician winning as an independent than either the Tories or Reform winning in Hartlepool.

That being said I think 2019 was a low water mark for Labour so they should fairly comfortably hold on.

Do you still believe that?
In a word: yes.
But it might be closer than I initially thought.
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YL
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« Reply #111 on: April 15, 2021, 04:07:00 PM »

Eight candidates for Airdrie & Shotts:

Stephen Arrundale (Lib Dem)
Ben Callaghan (Con)
Martyn Greene (Reform UK)
Donald Mackay (UKIP)
Neil Manson (SDP)
Jonathan Stanley (Scottish Unionist)
Kenneth Stevenson (Lab)
Anum Qaisar-Javed (SNP)

No Abla (or even Alba)
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Maik Otter
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« Reply #112 on: April 15, 2021, 04:31:15 PM »

Reichsbürger at elections!

Have there ever been subtitution candidates in the UKs FPTP elections?
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Gary JG
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« Reply #113 on: April 15, 2021, 06:01:37 PM »

Reichsbürger at elections!

Have there ever been subtitution candidates in the UKs FPTP elections?

I do not understand what relevance the German Reichsbürger movement has to a UK election. I am not aware that the somewhat similar sovereign citizen people, sometimes active in the UK, have ever involved themselves in electoral politics.

I presume by a substitution candidate you mean someone who is nominated to fill the vacancy, if the elected candidate ceases to be a member of the legislature, without the need for a by-election. No such concept exists or has ever existed in UK Parliamentary electoral law.

During the world wars the Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties entered into electoral pacts, so they would nominate candidates only to fill the vacancies in seats they already held. However there was nothing to stop Independent or other party candidates from contesting and sometimes winning by-elections.
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