UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170058 times)
YL
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« Reply #975 on: January 11, 2022, 12:47:40 PM »
« edited: January 11, 2022, 01:38:39 PM by YL »

Nine candidates for Southend West:

Christopher Anderson (Freedom Alliance)
Catherine Blaiklock (English Democrats)
Olga Childs (no description) [1]
Ben Downton (Heritage Party)
Anna Firth (Conservative)
Jayda Fransen (Independent) [2]
Steve Laws (UKIP)
Graham Moore (English Constitution Party)
Jason Pilley (Psychedelic Movement) [3]

[1] Address in the Corby constituency; a quick search didn't find anythingsee Tintrlvr's post below
[2] The British Freedom Party isn't registered
[3] Stood in the last General Election in Rochford & Southend East with the similar description "Psychedelic Future Party" and got 37 votes in Westborough ward in last year's Southend council election with this description.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #976 on: January 11, 2022, 12:58:09 PM »

Olga Childs appears to be this person: https://sagareva.com/

The number of weird fringe righties running in races like this is a bit disturbing.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #977 on: January 11, 2022, 03:12:22 PM »

I guess I’d vote for Firth here. Mostly to deny the far right idiots their deposits.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #978 on: January 11, 2022, 03:48:05 PM »

Nine candidates for Southend West:

Christopher Anderson (Freedom Alliance)
Catherine Blaiklock (English Democrats)
Olga Childs (no description) [1]
Ben Downton (Heritage Party)
Anna Firth (Conservative)
Jayda Fransen (Independent) [2]
Steve Laws (UKIP)
Graham Moore (English Constitution Party)
Jason Pilley (Psychedelic Movement) [3]

[1] Address in the Corby constituency; a quick search didn't find anythingsee Tintrlvr's post below
[2] The British Freedom Party isn't registered
[3] Stood in the last General Election in Rochford & Southend East with the similar description "Psychedelic Future Party" and got 37 votes in Westborough ward in last year's Southend council election with this description.


Blaiklock was a founder of the Brexit Party who had to resign (to be replaced by Farage) over some old tweets.
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morgieb
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« Reply #979 on: January 11, 2022, 03:59:55 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.
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adma
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« Reply #980 on: January 11, 2022, 05:37:39 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #981 on: January 11, 2022, 05:57:02 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...


One of his few campaign planks is to appoint Tommy Robinson to the House of Lords.
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adma
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« Reply #982 on: January 11, 2022, 09:52:57 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...


One of his few campaign planks is to appoint Tommy Robinson to the House of Lords.

Oh, okay; just looked him up.  More lower-case monster raving loony than upper-case...
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #983 on: January 11, 2022, 10:16:51 PM »

I mean I get why but it's disturbing that literally every non-Tory candidate is a far-right asshole.

Even the Psych guy?

Well, look at it this way:  they're each so much into individual freedom and liberty, they feel they're invididually viable enough to be elected.  Like, the ballot-box equivalent of serial Tinder left-swipees...


One of his few campaign planks is to appoint Tommy Robinson to the House of Lords.

Oh, okay; just looked him up.  More lower-case monster raving loony than upper-case...

Notably, the Official Monster Raving Loony Party didn’t stand in Batley and Spen in 2016 either.
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adma
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« Reply #984 on: January 12, 2022, 05:30:32 AM »

Notably, the Official Monster Raving Loony Party didn’t stand in Batley and Spen in 2016 either.

Yeah, to extend the Tinder left-swipee metaphor, this batch of lunatic-righters would be the equivalent of a bunch of single guys at a sex club (paying a premium because they're, well, single guys)...in the middle of a pandemic.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #985 on: January 12, 2022, 08:00:38 AM »

No fringe left candidate is slightly surprising tbh.
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adma
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« Reply #986 on: January 13, 2022, 05:30:18 PM »

No fringe left candidate is slightly surprising tbh.

Maybe it says something about the nature of the "fringe left", or just the nature of the fringe, these pandemic/post-Brexit days--like it's all being pushed to the "right" by proxy, even the George Galloway types.  Or maybe the 2022-model fringe right has scared the erstwhile fringe left straight, at least when it comes to running for political office...
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Continential
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« Reply #987 on: January 13, 2022, 07:45:53 PM »

No fringe left candidate is slightly surprising tbh.
What even constitutes as the fringe left nowadays?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #988 on: January 13, 2022, 08:12:22 PM »

What even constitutes as the fringe left nowadays?
The Worker’s Party (George Galloway’s reactionary communists) , Breakthrough Party (young Corbynistas), and Northern Independence Party (extremely online southern based students) are the only 3 that immediately come to mind. The more traditional far left as represented by Socialist Party etc seems to have melted away and only contests random council wards if they even still functionally exist.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #989 on: January 14, 2022, 08:03:15 AM »

I think there was some expectation that Breakthrough might try their luck here.
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beesley
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« Reply #990 on: January 14, 2022, 08:53:23 AM »

What even constitutes as the fringe left nowadays?
The Worker’s Party (George Galloway’s reactionary communists) , Breakthrough Party (young Corbynistas), and Northern Independence Party (extremely online southern based students) are the only 3 that immediately come to mind. The more traditional far left as represented by Socialist Party etc seems to have melted away and only contests random council wards if they even still functionally exist.

A few outfits said that they wouldn't stand against Corbyn's Labour party, most notably TUSC - who did return and stand a few hundred candidates last May.
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YL
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« Reply #991 on: January 14, 2022, 02:06:20 PM »

The Worker’s Party (George Galloway’s reactionary communists) , Breakthrough Party (young Corbynistas), and Northern Independence Party (extremely online southern based students) are the only 3 that immediately come to mind. The more traditional far left as represented by Socialist Party etc seems to have melted away and only contests random council wards if they even still functionally exist.

In addition to those there was an Alliance for Green Socialism (a Leeds based outfit) candidate in Batley & Spen.  TUSC seem to be by some way the most active at local level, but were dormant during the Corbyn years and haven't stood in any of the recent by-elections.

I think there was some expectation that Breakthrough might try their luck here.

Well they might have got a decent vote share if they had, but possibly they just decided that it wasn't appropriate for them to do so in the circumstances.  They haven't actually stood many candidates anywhere yet so they may just not really be that organised.
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YL
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« Reply #992 on: January 19, 2022, 12:09:58 PM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #993 on: January 19, 2022, 12:40:51 PM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless I’m missing something.
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Boobs
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« Reply #994 on: January 19, 2022, 12:45:39 PM »
« Edited: January 19, 2022, 12:49:08 PM by Boobs »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless I’m missing something.

A “perfect storm” scenario where Alliance receives the tacit support of the few nationalists in the seat, combined with UUP (and possibly TUV, both of which has been rising in Stormont polls at the expense of DUP) challenging DUP could result in a narrow flip.

This seat did have the worst DUP 2019 performance relative to 2017, with Alliance’s gain (17.7%) being greater than DUP’s loss (16.8%). Went from a 19k majority to just 6k, although I imagine NI by-election dynamics being different from the rest of the UK’s.
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YL
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« Reply #995 on: January 19, 2022, 12:49:01 PM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless I’m missing something.

It ought to be, but there was a 17% swing to Alliance in 2019 and with the DUP not in particularly great shape at the moment they'd give it a go in a by-election.  If the big U Unionist vote splits they might have a chance.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #996 on: January 20, 2022, 09:59:57 AM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

It was noted by some that Ian Paisley Jnr was sitting on the government benches at PMQs yesterday.
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beesley
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« Reply #997 on: January 20, 2022, 12:09:41 PM »

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.


There are three big hitters for the DUP in Lagan Valley - Donaldson, Edwin Poots and Paul Givan. It's possible the DUP win three seats there, as did happen when constituencies had six MLAs, but it doesn't seem likely. So assuming a by-election takes place, it's possible Poots or Givan do the swap as so often happens. Not sure either of them would be entirely keen on that.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #998 on: January 20, 2022, 01:55:15 PM »

Givan is almost certain to cease being First Minister after the election so I imagine he would be open to switching to Westminster.
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Blair
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« Reply #999 on: January 24, 2022, 03:52:33 AM »

Labour have shortlisted two candidates- one is a councillor and the other a GMB activist. Would be the first time Labour have selected a black man for a winnable by election since Tottenham 2000?

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