UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10324785/Tory-MP-arrested-car-crashes-lamp-post-causes-internet-blackout-locals.html

A Conservative 2019 Gain, where the lib Dems got absolutely nuked following 2015. Starmers Critics may be right if they can't gain this seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

The chances of Labour failing to win Bridgend in a byelection are not exactly high.

[Coldstream]

As with Rod Roberts, he won’t resign if he has any choice - the Tories certainly won’t make him - because they know they’d lose it.

[DavidB.]

Nice news to wake up to this morning.     

I too noticed that if Labour got the same vote share as last time and all of it was taken from the LDs, Morgan would still have won. Perhaps it is sensationalism, but it is impressive how many Tory LD switchers there were (and how many the media seems to come across, all in the sort of demographic that was more used to honour in government)

Forgive me for thinking that when people say Johnson only has one final chance after this, it comes across as more than a little ridiculous. I'm aware that this references his position as party leader and not as Prime Minister, but if all the existing problems with Covid and the economy as well as sleaze weren't enough, this doesn't seem a remotely hard-line position. But I suppose it is a logical one now Brexit is out of the way and the party has no electoral need for him, as Al said.

Is this true though? Could Rishi Sunak or Thatcherite Liz Truss really be expected to hold on to all these "red wall" seats Johnson gained last time around more so than Johnson himself? Seems quite the gamble to me...

[beesley]

Nice news to wake up to this morning.     

I too noticed that if Labour got the same vote share as last time and all of it was taken from the LDs, Morgan would still have won. Perhaps it is sensationalism, but it is impressive how many Tory LD switchers there were (and how many the media seems to come across, all in the sort of demographic that was more used to honour in government)

Forgive me for thinking that when people say Johnson only has one final chance after this, it comes across as more than a little ridiculous. I'm aware that this references his position as party leader and not as Prime Minister, but if all the existing problems with Covid and the economy as well as sleaze weren't enough, this doesn't seem a remotely hard-line position. But I suppose it is a logical one now Brexit is out of the way and the party has no electoral need for him, as Al said.

Is this true though? Could Rishi Sunak or Thatcherite Liz Truss really be expected to hold on to all these "red wall" seats Johnson gained last time around more so than Johnson himself? Seems quite the gamble to me...

It's valid enough to say that they wouldn't - and I doubt they would be the best fits - but if Boris becomes as much of a liability that they are as far behind in voter intentions as they appear to be, then the party ceases to have that electoral need for him because they have an electoral need for someone more. At that point, it's more of a 2019 picture where there were only three losses outside of Scotland in the Remain seats - not 2017 where there were a few gains in seats of the 'opposing trend' If the qualities that he has become liabilities (which is more what was being alluded to by previous posters), that is quite the turnaround. And any Labour government/poll lead will inevitably mean decent gains in those targets - not all switchers have to be Tory lent votes coming back to the fold, especially if Labour works harder to present a big unifying vision.

I also think the number of those seats that don't fall into the 'seats that the Tories would've likely gained in 2019 anyway' (Bishop Auckland, Great Grimsby) and 'Brexit-voting Labour seats they gained in 2019 that would be competitive in the best circumstances' (Bolton NE, NW Durham) is quite small, but that's a point I'm less confident on.

Though there are a large number of 'ifs' in those paragraphs I just wrote, the party has time to work them out.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Yeah I agree that Boris has the best election-winning instincts in the Conservative Party (mostly because he's an unprincipled charlatan rather than an ideologue like most Tories). The problem is if his personal brand is so damaged by the managerial incompetence emanating from Number 10 that it doesn't matter.

It's quite possible people are writing him off early - there was also a lot of speculation about Boris being chucked before the vaccine bounce happened and suddenly he was invincible again. But I think the recurring question marks are because anyone who is familiar with Boris Johnson's career could have well predicted a flameout of the sort that's happened in the past couple of months.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this true though? Could Rishi Sunak or Thatcherite Liz Truss really be expected to hold on to all these "red wall" seats Johnson gained last time around more so than Johnson himself? Seems quite the gamble to me...

The issue is simply that at his present levels of unpopularity (we have now reached the point where not-at-all-political people spontaneously mock him without prompting: that's really only one level on the ladder above Late Period Corbyn) he would not be helping to hold seats anywhere. To carry on with the Shropshire theme, it isn't as if he remains popular or is any less hated in Telford than the rest of the county: quite the contrary. But you are correct that a new leader would require a significant recalibration of strategy and that it may now be too late to do this in a way that does not entail a serious risk of the electoral equivalent of a structural adjustment. There are no longer any safe options, a reality that is really going to add something to the coming drama.

[YL]

It would be interesting to see how he would go down in Hartlepool today.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would be interesting to see how he would go down in Hartlepool today.

Heh, was wondering that myself after seeing the scale of the NS swing.

Not impossible it is one of the few places that still remains *relatively* loyal to him - its different from even most of the "red wall" areas it gets bracketed with.

[Alcibiades]

It would be interesting to see how he would go down in Hartlepool today.

Heh, was wondering that myself after seeing the scale of the NS swing.

Not impossible it is one of the few places that still remains *relatively* loyal to him - its different from even most of the "red wall" areas it gets bracketed with.

It’s totally politically unique, different from just about everywhere else in the country, yeah. So I suppose it is a possibility that his popularity hasn’t declined as much there, but considering just how much of a hit it has taken across the board…

[patzer]

It would be interesting to see how he would go down in Hartlepool today.

Honestly if the Hartlepool by-election had happened today, it wouldn't entirely surprise me if the independent Sam Lee would have won.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It would be interesting to see how he would go down in Hartlepool today.

Heh, was wondering that myself after seeing the scale of the NS swing.

Not impossible it is one of the few places that still remains *relatively* loyal to him - its different from even most of the "red wall" areas it gets bracketed with.

It’s totally politically unique, different from just about everywhere else in the country, yeah. So I suppose it is a possibility that his popularity hasn’t declined as much there, but considering just how much of a hit it has taken across the board…

What's so unique about it ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's just a very insular place and can be a bit odd about things. If you look at voting habits (rather than simply who won) then it has one of the stranger post-1918 electoral histories of any large town in England. Of course it has always been odd. They hanged a monkey you know.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Only because they thought it was from somewhere distant and confusing, like Billingham.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's just a very insular place and can be a bit odd about things. If you look at voting habits (rather than simply who won) then it has one of the stranger post-1918 electoral histories of any large town in England. Of course it has always been odd. They hanged a monkey you know.

Its electoral history from 1832 to 1918 isn't uninteresting either......

[YL]

The writ for the Southend West by-election caused by the murder of Sir David Amess was moved yesterday and the by-election will be on 3 February.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

We know that Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK aren't contesting this, but UKIP have announced a candidate, as have some new outfit called the "English Constitution Party", and far right activist Jayda Fransen is also supposedly standing.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1471696617950568452

Is it just BritainElects that truncates ReformUK to REFUK?  Because to a casual observer, that looks a little....profane.

[CumbrianLefty]

The writ for the Southend West by-election caused by the murder of Sir David Amess was moved yesterday and the by-election will be on 3 February.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

We know that Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK aren't contesting this, but UKIP have announced a candidate, as have some new outfit called the "English Constitution Party", and far right activist Jayda Fransen is also supposedly standing.

No doubt about the winner of this one.

Something to look for is turnout - the lowest previous figure for a peacetime UK byelection was 18% at Manchester Central in 2012, if a lot of browned off Tory voters stay at home that record could go.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

FTR only (at this stage) - Birmingham Erdington coming up, following the death of Jack Dromey.

[YL]

The writ for the Southend West by-election caused by the murder of Sir David Amess was moved yesterday and the by-election will be on 3 February.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

We know that Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK aren't contesting this, but UKIP have announced a candidate, as have some new outfit called the "English Constitution Party", and far right activist Jayda Fransen is also supposedly standing.

No doubt about the winner of this one.

Something to look for is turnout - the lowest previous figure for a peacetime UK byelection was 18% at Manchester Central in 2012, if a lot of browned off Tory voters stay at home that record could go.

To be honest I don't think there'll be much point in trying to take anything from the result of this unless something very strange happens.  It's just not a normal by-election.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The writ for the Southend West by-election caused by the murder of Sir David Amess was moved yesterday and the by-election will be on 3 February.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

We know that Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK aren't contesting this, but UKIP have announced a candidate, as have some new outfit called the "English Constitution Party", and far right activist Jayda Fransen is also supposedly standing.

No doubt about the winner of this one.

Something to look for is turnout - the lowest previous figure for a peacetime UK byelection was 18% at Manchester Central in 2012, if a lot of browned off Tory voters stay at home that record could go.

To be honest I don't think there'll be much point in trying to take anything from the result of this unless something very strange happens.  It's just not a normal by-election.

Biggest question would be whether anyone other than the Tories keeps their deposit.

[CumbrianLefty]

The writ for the Southend West by-election caused by the murder of Sir David Amess was moved yesterday and the by-election will be on 3 February.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

We know that Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and Reform UK aren't contesting this, but UKIP have announced a candidate, as have some new outfit called the "English Constitution Party", and far right activist Jayda Fransen is also supposedly standing.

No doubt about the winner of this one.

Something to look for is turnout - the lowest previous figure for a peacetime UK byelection was 18% at Manchester Central in 2012, if a lot of browned off Tory voters stay at home that record could go.

To be honest I don't think there'll be much point in trying to take anything from the result of this unless something very strange happens.  It's just not a normal by-election.

Its not, but it is reasonably comparable to the 2016 Batley and Spen contest.

Which saw a turnout of 25%, and a vote of 85% for the incumbent party.

So that is perhaps a decent benchmark for this one.

[JimJamUK]

Biggest question would be whether anyone other than the Tories keeps their deposit.

UKIP did above average in Southend West previously and their post-collapse performance in the English 2019 local elections shows that they retain a good protest vote identity for many of their former voters. Therefore, it’s not hard to see them picking up some protest votes here given the only other party people will have heard of is the Conservatives who are not exactly popular atm.

[CumbrianLefty]

FTR only (at this stage) - Birmingham Erdington coming up, following the death of Jack Dromey.

The inevitable speculation and ramping has already started regarding this one.

[Blair]

FTR only (at this stage) - Birmingham Erdington coming up, following the death of Jack Dromey.

The inevitable speculation and ramping has already started regarding this one.

It's so strange- especially when the same people will spend whole weeks obsessing about it. There will be enough time to waste but it would be nice to see people at least wait.