UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

It may just be expectation management, but pessimistic noises are coming out of the Tory camp.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

This should be fun at the very least

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Here's the Owen Jones guide to tonight's election results:

Tories hold on:
"Despite the fact that we have the most incompetent and unpopular Tory government ever, the opposition can't win a by-election. Kier Starmer should resign!"

LibDems win:
"The LibDems are able to win by-elections against the Tories. Why isn't Labour able to do the same? Kier Starmer should resign!"

Labour wins!!?!:
"With the unpopular Tory government in a complete state of dissolution, Labour should be winning by a much larger margins than this. Kier Starmer should resign!"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It may just be expectation management, but pessimistic noises are coming out of the Tory camp.

It's likely the former, but if not it would mean that they think they're struggling to hit their raw vote target, whatever it is. They won't actually know much about how anyone else is doing - no one ever really does in a by-election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway I've no idea what will happen, except that I'd be surprised at anything other than a low turnout. If the seat is lost it would be roughly equivalent to Glasgow East in 2008 on the 'oh shit' scale, in other words very bad indeed. It would also be very amusing. I've no idea how Labour will do - contrary to what #FBPE twitter insists they haven't run dead, but they've not put an intensive effort into things either and the local party is very weak so not really capable of much of an effort on its own. I suspect it probably doesn't matter.

[Blair]

Would this be the first by-election for a while where the party in third at the GE has won?

[Cassius]

Would this be the first by-election for a while where the party in third at the GE has won?

If we discount the two UKIP by-election wins (where the party didn’t stand at the preceding election) and George Galloway’s win in Bradford in 2012 (where Respect had come in fifth place in 2010), this would be the first time since Leicester South in 2004 (which the Lib Dems also won).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Funny thing isn't it? Once upon a time it was a very common thing to happen. I suppose all of this tracks the purgatory period of the LibDems.

[Blair]

Would this be the first by-election for a while where the party in third at the GE has won?

If we discount the two UKIP by-election wins (where the party didn’t stand at the preceding election) and George Galloway’s win in Bradford in 2012 (where Respect had come in fifth place in 2010), this would be the first time since Leicester South in 2004 (which the Lib Dems also won).

Ah the lesser known of the 2004 by-elections- I know of the Birmingham one for it's well, rather yikes, New Labour approach to immigration that only West Midlands Labour could do.

'I know that people here are worried about fraudulent asylum claims and illegal immigration. Yet the Lib Dems ignore what people say. They ignore what local people really want. The Lib Dems want to keep giving welfare benefits to failed asylum seekers. They voted for this in Parliament on 1 March 2004. They want your money -and mine - to go to failed asylum seekers.'

Labour didn't mention that the disputed measure was a plan to take the children of asylum seekers from their parents and put them into care, which Michael Howard had denounced as 'despicable'.

The leaflet implied that Byrne was a comrade of the working class rather than a former City slicker who made his pile as an accountant at Andersons Consulting and a banker at NM Rothschild. 'I know what you want,' he cried. 'Someone who is tough and on your side. Someone who wants the same as you. And I do. I want to push my new baby's buggy along the road without having to face a gang of youths spitting and swearing.'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/aug/22/politicalcolumnists.guardiancolumnists

[Blair]

There's a very good book to write on outlandish by-election campaigns. 

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Would this be the first by-election for a while where the party in third at the GE has won?

If we discount the two UKIP by-election wins (where the party didn’t stand at the preceding election) and George Galloway’s win in Bradford in 2012 (where Respect had come in fifth place in 2010), this would be the first time since Leicester South in 2004 (which the Lib Dems also won).

Ah the lesser known of the 2004 by-elections- I know of the Birmingham one for it's well, rather yikes, New Labour approach to immigration that only West Midlands Labour could do.

'I know that people here are worried about fraudulent asylum claims and illegal immigration. Yet the Lib Dems ignore what people say. They ignore what local people really want. The Lib Dems want to keep giving welfare benefits to failed asylum seekers. They voted for this in Parliament on 1 March 2004. They want your money -and mine - to go to failed asylum seekers.'

Labour didn't mention that the disputed measure was a plan to take the children of asylum seekers from their parents and put them into care, which Michael Howard had denounced as 'despicable'.

The leaflet implied that Byrne was a comrade of the working class rather than a former City slicker who made his pile as an accountant at Andersons Consulting and a banker at NM Rothschild. 'I know what you want,' he cried. 'Someone who is tough and on your side. Someone who wants the same as you. And I do. I want to push my new baby's buggy along the road without having to face a gang of youths spitting and swearing.'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/aug/22/politicalcolumnists.guardiancolumnists

Wait so the labour candidate took a position to the right of Michael Howard on immigration and lost the by election?

[Cassius]

Would this be the first by-election for a while where the party in third at the GE has won?

If we discount the two UKIP by-election wins (where the party didn’t stand at the preceding election) and George Galloway’s win in Bradford in 2012 (where Respect had come in fifth place in 2010), this would be the first time since Leicester South in 2004 (which the Lib Dems also won).

Ah the lesser known of the 2004 by-elections- I know of the Birmingham one for it's well, rather yikes, New Labour approach to immigration that only West Midlands Labour could do.

'I know that people here are worried about fraudulent asylum claims and illegal immigration. Yet the Lib Dems ignore what people say. They ignore what local people really want. The Lib Dems want to keep giving welfare benefits to failed asylum seekers. They voted for this in Parliament on 1 March 2004. They want your money -and mine - to go to failed asylum seekers.'

Labour didn't mention that the disputed measure was a plan to take the children of asylum seekers from their parents and put them into care, which Michael Howard had denounced as 'despicable'.

The leaflet implied that Byrne was a comrade of the working class rather than a former City slicker who made his pile as an accountant at Andersons Consulting and a banker at NM Rothschild. 'I know what you want,' he cried. 'Someone who is tough and on your side. Someone who wants the same as you. And I do. I want to push my new baby's buggy along the road without having to face a gang of youths spitting and swearing.'

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2004/aug/22/politicalcolumnists.guardiancolumnists

Wait so the labour candidate took a position to the right of Michael Howard on immigration and lost the by election?

Byrne actually won the by-election (and is still in parliament to this very day, having had a rather pratfall ridden career), albeit narrowly. Labour lost Leicester South on the same day.

[afleitch]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

[JerryArkansas]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

And another that says the exact opposite.  Once against mixed signals.

[Lord Halifax]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

And another that says the exact opposite.  Once against mixed signals.

What other rumor? Do you got a link?

The betting markets have switched and now have the Tories as most likely winners.

[TheTide]

Early rumours that the Tories have held on. Labour vote firmer than the Lib Dems would have liked.

And another that says the exact opposite.  Once against mixed signals.

What other rumor? Do you got a link?

The betting markets have switched and now have the Tories as most likely winners.

Lib Dems back as favourites as of now.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1471620962001076226?s=20

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not even sure if all of the boxes would be at the count yet. Beware of early rumours!

[Continential]

I'm not even sure if all of the boxes would be at the count yet. Beware of early rumours!

How long does it take for them to be at the count?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm not even sure if all of the boxes would be at the count yet. Beware of early rumours!

How long does it take for them to be at the count?

Depends on the constituency and all sorts of other factors. This is a large rural constituency without a central urban core and the count is being done in another constituency so this process will take longer than in a small urban constituency and so on. Of course they'll still count what they have: they don't generally wait for everything but this is one reason why counts can drag in rural seats sometimes.

[Blair]

Was it Batley were people were trying to understand the angle of a table to try and work out the pile?

I have developed a very sad trait of waking up in the night for by-elections; happened in both Batley & Old Bexley- so lets see how tonight goes.

I think it will be v close but still feel a conservative win is the obvious answer!

[Blair]

I did forget to ask if there was a reason the Tories didn't select someone local?

[Continential]

Was it Batley were people were trying to understand the angle of a table to try and work out the pile?

Yes, Sky News iirc intentionally did that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I did forget to ask if there was a reason the Tories didn't select someone local?

Local party is a bit of a nest of vipers and some of the better known and better established figures are compromised in various ways. Of course they could have looked for someone not politically active but known as a loyal supporter and well known in the community in this or that part of the constituency, that might have been a good idea.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1471633587199959046?s=20