UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

Said candidate has just been selected for Mid Sussex, which isn't, on new boundaries, as rural as it sounds; it's basically Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill and doesn't actually look that safe.

Interesting. Since the local election results in those two towns, I have had the seat on my "potential" list for 2024, though mainly for the Lib-Dems. However, some of the models suggest Labour could steal their thunder and be the beneficiary, like whats going on in most of Sussex.

[Oryxslayer]

The town is right on the historic boundary between Warwickshire and Staffordshire, which meant that parts of it went into two separate county divisions, one in each county.  

SNIP

And in traditional fashion, the roots of much of this go all the way back to pre-Norman times. Tamworth became a place on the map because it was the center of royal power for the various Mercian kingdoms in what is now the West Midlands. This of course made it a target for various Scandinavian raids and extortions, that eventually diminished the town and kingdom.

 When Wessex established governance over the region, they specifically carved up the Tamworth region between the precursors to Warwickshire and Staffordshire. The was no "Tamworthshire." Historians have theorized a very modern reason for this: gerrymandering away the towns political relevance and transferring that power to other areas in the West. Divided, Tamworth could not utilize it's Mercian legacy to centralize discontent and serve as the core for projects to revive Mercia.

And it worked. The division shifted centers of control to the point Tamworth is not in the Domesday Book.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway,  the writ was just confirmed and the by-election is happening the same day as Mid Bedfordshire.

[Oryxslayer]

In spite of the mixed track record of such things, I'd like to see another poll of Mid Beds.

TFW you know the future

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1703046374407680508?t=juRPxH78A9OKAtpn...

Though in all honesty,  with the track record of by-elections and constituency polls, this really just tells us it's a three-way. Which was already known.

[Oryxslayer]

I wonder how SNP Twitter would react to a defeat…

Somewhere between "it's expected given Labour's massive lead" and "the level of Unionist tactical voting in a special election is unrepeatable in a GE" depending upon the size of the defeat.

[Oryxslayer]

Am I correct that Rutherlegen (which I can't spell) has quite a lot of what I believe a poster on here called tongue in cheek 'Labours core vote now-old Lanarkshire grannies'?

There was a write up of the seat in the Guardian (which ironically didn't interview anyone under the age of 50)

Looking at polling over the past few years, this is or perhaps was the case. Labour's vote got noticeably better increasing age categories, while the SNP's had a declining trend through the age brackets. However, since the scandals and the subsequent narrowing of the polls, both effects are have become somewhat muted. Labour's vote is approximately equivalent across all age categories, with a slight decrease among the Youth and increase among the retired. The SNP age decline meanwhile is less steep. They had less elderly voters to lose than among the middling and younger demographics, so those groups were going to fall and bring down the trendline. The SNP trend was always a much steeper decline then Labour's growth with increasing age: partially cause they had a larger share of the vote, partially cause the Conservative vote increases dramatically in the older age groups

Stepping back, this should be fairly understandable. Part of Labour's initial collapse was because the younger cohorts lacked the party self-identification their parents had from the previous decades, and could only associate Labour with scandal and/or Blair. This age trend can be seen in similar parties on the continent that one had near-duopolistic control but now have to compete with younger and more ideologically divided parties. When combined with the fact that the Tory vote is also elderly-dependent, and unionist voters are increasingly fine voting tactically for each other, this would make the core Labour vote in a SNP-Labour dogfight very dependent on the older cohorts.

The trend since the scandals also makes sense. The issues the SNP are dealing with are party organization and personality focused. This is unlikely to touch any particular age group in particular. Instead, I would not be surprised if income or perceived financial situation has a better correlation among those who shifted parties, given the current situation nationally and how both the SNP and Conservatives are seemingly unable to resolve the situation.

[Oryxslayer]

Because a lot of Scottish Conservative support seems to be associated with the "Unionist" part of the party's name more than the "Conservative" part, I've been assuming that their vote will fall considerably as voters focussed on Unionism switch to Labour to defeat the SNP.  

Which itself is kinda a big question mark that probably still won't be answered by a by-election with unique circumstances.  IIRC Labour have not led a Scottish poll so far (if I'm wrong, my mistake!) but they have come very close to the SNP.  But unionists locally have shown signs of strong tactical voting,  obviously made easier by the transfer system. 

Basically. If we are to go to a GE, the party that is going to be the primary challenger to the SNP in a particular seat is already locked in.  The Tories have approximately 10ish seats in the rural northeast and borders,  the Lib-Dems have 5ish depending upon their targeting, and Labour has the rest of the urban and suburban seats mostly but not exclusively in the central belt. How strong will the unionist tactical voting be when presented with this divide? How will the SNP defectors stand if the opposition is not Labour, but Labour are still obviously running in the seat? There obviously are still some seats the SNP just can't lose, but the answers to these questions will determine if it I'd a SNP loss, or a blowout.

[Oryxslayer]

If it were just Tamworth town I could see that, but the commuter and rural territory attached to it to make up the numbers is as bovinely Conservative as can be found anywhere in the entire country: Little Aston in particular. Surreal if true.

The circumstances surrounding a resignation impact non-GE contests almost everywhere in the world to some degree. These are much worse for the local Tories here, and has been long simmering to some extent, than in say Uxbridge or Selby.

[Oryxslayer]

Yes, but I'm just talking about circumstances, because special elections are special. I'm not trying to rewrite the narrative, but it was said here in this thread that the past MPs in 2/3 contests - including Boris - didn't come up much at the doorstep. Did this single thing change the course of the by-election? Of course not. Everything about these sort of contests though is that they are special, and can become their own little bubbles.

Boris and Co. de facto resigned for political factionalism. It's easy for the electorate in that context to separate the past MP from the current contest. Lets compare that now to the long history of politicians who had to resign mid-cycle, in both the UK and abroad, for things like: corruption, sexual misconduct, abuse of power, drugs, murder, or just committing general crimes. When these contests come up, the electorate tends to remember that the incumbent was a scumbag and do bring these things up with canvassers. The mood of the electorate starts in favor of the challenger and a flip - or at least a very large backlash if the seat is deemed safe, because off-cycle elections are special. Voters have the opportunity to reassert normal behavior come a GE, if such a seat only fell thanks to scandal.

That's why the Tories are seemingly writing it off early. Cause Pincher had issues, those issues caused him to resign, and now the Tory campaign has to make amends on top of normal attempts at persuasion. The "vibes" or local mood is horrible. And in theory we already knew this in advance. It was remarked by not just one commentator that the scale of the Tory defeat in Tamworth locally, when compared to similar towns nearly that also swung against the Conservatives, was particularly intense. The one point of difference between the compared elections was of course Tamworth had Pincher and his long-simmering high-profile scandals, which had forced him to avoid normal constituent services to stay away from angry voters.

[Oryxslayer]

Rutherglen was called at 1.25am in 2019, so shouldn't be too late declaring, at least compared to some of the rural seats we've had in the past few years!

The Teale preview made it clear this part of Scotland does things like in Sunderland,  and regularly is the first to declare.  With only a single contest, and all the press watching the ballots stack up, we may know who is going to win very soon.

[Oryxslayer]

It looks like we're in "not even close" territory based on the vibes at the moment.

New prediction for those active in the thread: Torys save their deposit or nah?

Cause it can go both ways. In a Scottish blowout, you would think they all just hopped over to the leading unionist. But there is also the possible of just the expected decline, and it's more the SNP voters staying home or getting turned off by the bad campaign.

[Oryxslayer]

Sarwar arrived at the count, Yousuf never planned to come.

[Oryxslayer]

Votes:

Michael Shanks, Labour: 17,820, 58.6%, (+24.1%)
Katy Loudon, SNP: 8,399, 27.6%, (-16.6%)

_________Lost Deposit_________

Gloria Adebo, Lib-Dem: 895
Bill Bonnar, SSP: 271
Garry Cooke, Ind: 6
Andrew Daly, Ind: 81
Cameron Eadie, Green: 601
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India, Ind: 34
Niall Fraser, Scottish Family Party: 319
Ewan Hoyle, Volt UK: 46
Thomas Kerr, C‌onservative: 1,192, 3.9%, (-11.1%)
Christopher Sermanni, TUSC‌: 178
David Stark, Reform: 403
Colette Walker, Independence for Scotland Party: 207

Labour Gain

[Oryxslayer]

Half the gains seemingly came from the Tories, half from the SNP.

The Tory side is an complete collapse likely cause of unique by-election circumstances, but suggests more generally the Unionists are fine voting for each other if there is a duopoly versus the SNP. One wonders now just how many Labour voters will do the same in a Borders or Aberdeenshire GE context.

the SNp side of things is similarly bleak. While the SNP will say that they won't fall quite as hard in a GE or everywhere in the region, it confirms a steep decline. Even if we muffle the SNP and Conservative swings to Labour, this would suggest that Labour would be the largest Scottish party ahead of the SNP.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone has already added their own fine takes, so I don't think that much needs to be said. One additional point of comparison tight now between the SNP and the Tories is that both seemingly have and aura of "unaccountability."

In the case of the Tories, they are secretly in full acceptance mode that they will lose big, and there is nothing they can do to stop it.  Therefore many see now as to time for doing all the unpopular dogmatic stuff not normally viable, since everyone who would hypothetically hate said action is already expected to go Labour.  Which is how they end up with a party congress that barely touched cost of living issues in a cost of living crisis. It's de facto the longest lame duck government that will ever exist.

The SNP meanwhile are not in a position as awful as the Tories,  but they could get there. The issues they face are internal,  and born of the party culture.  Taking the hard steps and cutting off the offenders,  rather than claiming a witch hunt, would probably halt any further decline. Claiming nothing is wrong creates the unaccountable atmosphere,  since the average person has zero impact on internal SNP machinations.  But I have no faith the SNP could do this, perhaps because they fear a true hollyrood split.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

[Oryxslayer]

What are the odds of a general election coinciding with the local elections in May?

The going expectation is that the Tories, fully enjoying their Lame Duck year to the maximum extent, will wait until the fall or winter of 2024 to face the inevitable. The absolute latest people could go to the polls is early January 2025, but even a doomed government knows its not smart to force their MPs and loyal activists onto doorsteps during the holidays, potentially though a few feet of snow.

This isn't to say that if the councilors had a voice in these matters, they wouldn't call for a coinciding contest. 2015 showed that nationalization of voter behavior is a thing in these situations. 2023 showed that local elections in the current political environment will result in even more losses than anticipated. Some reliable voters just stay home rather than support the incumbent government, and another cohort look at the Lib-Dems and new Greens as a way to oust the Conservatives from even the safest of seats. And in many places, the cohort of councilors up for reelection were elected in 2021, aka the year when the Tories swept places like Dudley, Peterborough, and Swindon. Nationalizing the local elections will help save the furniture in many of these contests, and in some cases preserve local Conservative control.

Additionally, the single biggest reason to have the elections coincide is to save money. This doesn't sound like such a huge factor, but it is. So many councils controlled by both parties are running shoestring budgets, thanks to Conservative cuts over the past decade and the current financial crunch reducing what cash inflows are accessible.

The rebuttal to this of course is that the 2024 local elections have only ~1.2K seats up compared to the 8K+ last year. And the majority are in Labour councils after 2023, so there is not much control to lose, just a deeper hole to fall into. And while I'm sure the Southend, Walsall, Dudley, and Dorset Conservatives would like assistance from on high, 'independent voices' like Houchen, Street, and Hall would prefer to run away from the national brand and focus on the local.

Looming over everything though is the question of whether the elections will occur the moment things improve economically. Some Tories seem to want this, thinking Labour's lead is solely thanks to people being unable to look past their paycheck. And while it may occur, the Conservatives I think would still find themselves with a similarly sized polling deficit, since their unpopular Lame Duck actions have only given people more reason to chuck them out.

[Oryxslayer]

(as would be any sort of victory in Mid Beds)

Let's be honest about Mid-Beds: the genuine 3-way contest, with the additional potential for others to save their deposit,  is going to produce some wonky vote splits no matter who comes on top. In theory that would be Labour,  in practice who can say.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1714250238666404249?t=GR-8hOyVlgAXpYI267...

Copying this cause it offers some internal expectations of doom in Tamworth, and suggests a potential swing comparable not just to Selby, but also Dudley West.  IMO that's the main question there, whether we see a new record set for Swing to Labour in a by-election, or not.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/joncraig/status/1715160138229625165

This "senior source" could well be a Labour source speaking off the record, as Labour aren't officially claiming victory yet.

It also in theory could be accurate, since we should be approaching a declaration there soon, and its not everything's very secret when the work is done.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1715153322871521673
As they say - big if true.

Lol at the LibDem spin trying to take credit for Labour's victory.

I think the key spin here is "Taken enough Tory Votes" cause thats what the Lib-Dems national focus is right now. So from the perspective of their partisans, the larger voter movement from Blue to Orange should be the story the press runs with, and thats what they are trying to set the stage for. Is it accurate? Well...

[Oryxslayer]

At the same time the Labour candidate is all but claiming victory right now on Sky News in Tamworth.

[Oryxslayer]

Tory Candidate Andrew Cooper may be a no-show.

[Oryxslayer]

Tamworth Results:

Sarah Edwards (Labour):  11,719
Andrew Cooper (C‌onservative): 10,403
Ian Cooper (Reform UK): 1,373

_____Saved Deposit_______

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP): 436
Howling Laud Hope (Loony): 155
Sue Howarth (Green): 417
Peter Longman (Ind): 86
Ashlea Simon (Britain First): 580
Sunny Virk (Liberal-Democrat): 417

Labour Flip

[Oryxslayer]

I actually thought Labour would win this by a bit more - doesn't point to these 'swingy' ex-marginals swinging hard back to Labour. If the swing in the national polls does indeed come to pass, we may well need to get used to a very unfamiliar looking map.

I think they'll take a 23% swing lol

Some of us were expecting it to be closer to the historic swing in Dudley West rather than Selby, mainly cause Pincher seemingly created a worse environment for the local party then even the national situation.

[Oryxslayer]

Mid-Bedfordshire Result:


Alistair Strathern (Labour): 13,872
Festus Akinbusoye (C‌onservative): 12,680
Emma Holland-Lindsay (Liberal-Democrat): 9,420

_____Saved Deposit_______

Sid Cordle (Christian People's): 101
Prince Ankit Love Emperor of India (Ind): 27
Dave Holland (Reform UK): 1,487
Ann Kelly (Loony): 249
Gareth Mackey (Ind): 1,865
Chris Rooney (Mainstream): 24
Cade Sibley (Green): 732
Alberto Thomas (Heritage Party): 63
Alan Victor (True and Fair Party): 93
Antonio Vitiello (English Democrats): 107

Labour Gain