UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[EastAnglianLefty]

Labour was established as the party of the organised working class, and there were only a handful of areas where agricultural trade unionism was a thing (chiefly Norfolk.) These days it is increasingly a party of urban areas, the well-educated and those who do not own property. These are not the characteristics of agricultural communities.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though how many pure "agricultural communities" are there these days anyway?

Commuters are more and more a thing in many villages. Of course these aren't usually the types of people to be favourable to Labour either, though there is the odd interesting exception.

[YL]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

[MaxQue]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

He is an barrister AND a medical doctor.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

Military background, which is something that will always go down very well with that particular Conservative Association.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

Will there be any effect of picking a BAME urban lawyer for a rural constituency that's 98% white and only 0.2% Asian ?


https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-statistics-ethnicity/#single_constituency

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

He is an barrister AND a medical doctor.

The vital South Asian Parents vote will love him. Has a painfully generic Twitter account but vague sense he's somewhat culturally liberal.

https://twitter.com/DrNShastriHurst

[Blair]

Sunak and May both visited Bexley (the latter might be because James Brokenshire was one of TM’s true allies in politics)

However this is certainly the type of by-election where I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Governments vote cater.

[YL]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

Will there be any effect of picking a BAME urban lawyer for a rural constituency that's 98% white and only 0.2% Asian ?

I'd hope him being BAME won't be a big factor (and there are several rural seats with BAME Tory MPs) but as hinted above "lawyer from Birmingham" strikes me as a phrase which is quite likely to appear in a few Lib Dem leaflets.  Maybe they will even include a photo of Geoffrey Cox QC MP.

Lib Dems seem to be treating this one seriously and essentially ignoring Old Bexley & Sidcup, Labour the other way round.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

LOL

Let's just say that that is very much in character.

[Blair]

Labour's candidate for the last few GEs in N Shropshire told he won't be shortlisted - and has stormed out of the party in a huff.

I would have expected this with someone parachuted in 2019 but seems a bit odd as he ran in 2015- although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

Currie, who has been a member of Labour for more than 40 years, feels he has been unfairly judged for social media posts in support of Palestine. He called the local executive committee "Stalinist" and said the party has "a corruption in its soul".

In a lengthy statement, he said: "Yesterday the Labour Party National Executive Committee (NEC) blocked my inclusion onto the North Shropshire local members hustings to shortlist for the upcoming by-election candidate. This hustings is taking place today [Sunday].

"Under the guise of 'due diligence' they raised spurious concerns regarding a tweet in 2018 of a Palestinian badge and a Facebook post in 2020 where I quoted Jeremy Corbyn calling for calm following the Equalities Commission’s report on findings of Institutional anti-Semitism in the Labour Party.

"I consider I have been unjustly slurred as anti-Semitic. I abhor this slur and I am devastated and disgusted.

"I have been a member of the Labour Party since 1980, have held various elected positions and previously been the North Shropshire parliamentary candidate for the past three general elections.

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2021/11/14/betrayed-and-abused-labours-previous-north-shropshire-candidate-not-shortlisted-for-by-election/

[Blair]

Ha classic Lib Dems- 'do you hate issue x... we also hate it...' is basically their entire by-election shtick.

https://twitter.com/MatthewGreen02/status/1459864644278001667

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Ha classic Lib Dems- 'do you hate issue x... we also hate it...' is basically their entire by-election shtick.

If it works, you should try it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

And he has very much been part of the problem. The self-importance is amusing. If you're on the record as suggesting that the party ignores the findings and recommendations of a legally-binding statuary investigation, then, no, you won't be selected as a candidate. If you need to have it explained to you why this is the case, then you really have no business being in politics at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour candidate for North Shropshire will be Ben Wood, who is from Oswestry and is in his mid 20s. The Greens have not, I think, selected yet, but are likely to run Duncan Kerr, who is the councillor for the Oswestry South division.

[MaxQue]

although I guess this is one of those CLPs with 6 active members, who all hate each other.

And he has very much been part of the problem. The self-importance is amusing. If you're on the record as suggesting that the party ignores the findings and recommendations of a legally-binding statuary investigation, then, no, you won't be selected as a candidate. If you need to have it explained to you why this is the case, then you really have no business being in politics at all.

Legally-binding and partial, given they refused many times to open an investigation about Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.

[YL]

The Labour candidate for North Shropshire will be Ben Wood, who is from Oswestry and is in his mid 20s. The Greens have not, I think, selected yet, but are likely to run Duncan Kerr, who is the councillor for the Oswestry South division.

The Green candidate is indeed Duncan Kerr, and the Lib Dems have now officially selected their 2019 candidate Helen Morgan, who stood in The Meres ward in May (and came pretty close).

[YL]

14 candidates for North Shropshire

Suzie Akers Smith (Independent) [1]
Andrea Allen (UKIP)
Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin EU) [2]
Martin Daubney (Reclaim Party) [3]
Russell Dean (The Party Party) [4]
James Elliot (Heritage Party) [5]
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) [6]
Yolande Kenward (no description) [7]
Duncan Kerr (Green)
Helen Morgan (Lib Dem)
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con)
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) [8]
Ben Wood (Lab)

[1] Independent councillor for Congleton West (Cheshire East)
[2] No, that isn't his real name.
[3] This is the party led by actor Laurence Fox.  Daubney was a Brexit Party MEP.
[4] Address in Monaco, of all places.
[5] The UKIP splinter led by David Kurten.
[6] Anti-lockdowns.
[7] From Maidstone, and stood there in 2017 and 2019.  According to the Shropshire Star, "she has also spent many years campaigning for action against paedophiles and corruption".
[8] The renamed Brexit Party.  The candidate is the daughter of former Shropshire Council leader Keith Barrow, who was a Tory but is now supporting her.

[MaxQue]

14 candidates for North Shropshire

Suzie Akers Smith (Independent) [1]
Andrea Allen (UKIP)
Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin EU) [2]
Martin Daubney (Reclaim Party) [3]
Russell Dean (The Party Party) [4]
James Elliot (Heritage Party) [5]
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) [6]
Yolande Kenward (no description) [7]
Duncan Kerr (Green)
Helen Morgan (Lib Dem)
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con)
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) [8]
Ben Wood (Lab)

[1] Independent councillor for Congleton West (Cheshire East)
[2] No, that isn't his real name.
[3] This is the party led by actor Laurence Fox.  Daubney was a Brexit Party MEP.
[4] Address in Monaco, of all places.
[5] The UKIP splinter led by David Kurten.
[6] Anti-lockdowns.
[7] From Maidstone, and stood there in 2017 and 2019.  According to the Shropshire Star, "she has also spent many years campaigning for action against paedophiles and corruption".
[8] The renamed Brexit Party.  The candidate is the daughter of former Shropshire Council leader Keith Barrow, who was a Tory but is now supporting her.

That's a very generous assessment.

[Blair]

What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

[Tintrlvr]

What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

I think there will be a big slump for the Tories but no clear single gainer, with Labour, LDs and minor parties all up. Tories still hold with a big majority.

[YL]

What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

I expect a substantial Tory fall but not enough to really put the seat in danger.  The Lib Dems aren't trying, so I doubt they'll make any progress, and I don't see Labour getting enough to win a seat like that unless large parts of the right-wing vote defect to Reform UK.

Maybe something like Con 47%, Lab 32%, Reform UK 11%, LD 5%, also-rans 5% between them.  (Complete stab in the dark, though.)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

The situation right now is unsettled enough that who knows, but I'm expecting Reform to flop yet again unless proven otherwise.

[Continential]

Has/Will there be any polling in any of the by-elections because the results would be interesting.

[YL]

Has/Will there be any polling in any of the by-elections because the results would be interesting.

By-election polls are fairly rare and don't have the best reputation (constituency level sampling being hard) but I suppose someone might commission one.  The Lib Dems actually commissioned some constituency polls themselves before the last General Election, presumably to get some numbers for bar charts, so I suppose they might.  (But they didn't in Chesham & Amersham.)