UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #700 on: October 26, 2021, 05:33:20 AM »

In other news, a couple of far right outfits have said they intend to stand in Southend West - so there is likely going to be a contest of some sort.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #701 on: October 26, 2021, 05:35:13 AM »

For the Major Parties, are deposits put up by the individual candidate or by the party?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #702 on: October 26, 2021, 05:58:22 AM »

By the party.
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YL
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« Reply #703 on: October 26, 2021, 08:29:14 AM »

North Shropshire would be an interesting one to watch to see whether the recall petition passes.  So far we've had three: North Antrim (narrow miss), Brecon & Radnor (comfortable success), Peterborough (overwhelming success).

As a mostly rural constituency where there would be no non-incumbent party who would be likely to be particularly optimistic about a by-election, and as the petition would be caused by suspension rather than conviction, this is perhaps most like North Antrim.  OTOH, it is in England (even if place names like Llynclys, Rhydycroesau and Porth-y-waen might suggest otherwise) not Northern Ireland, so it is not that like North Antrim.

My guess would be a narrow success, but with considerable uncertainty.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #704 on: October 26, 2021, 08:55:20 AM »

North Shropshire would be an interesting one to watch to see whether the recall petition passes.  So far we've had three: North Antrim (narrow miss), Brecon & Radnor (comfortable success), Peterborough (overwhelming success).

As a mostly rural constituency where there would be no non-incumbent party who would be likely to be particularly optimistic about a by-election, and as the petition would be caused by suspension rather than conviction, this is perhaps most like North Antrim.  OTOH, it is in England (even if place names like Llynclys, Rhydycroesau and Porth-y-waen might suggest otherwise) not Northern Ireland, so it is not that like North Antrim.

My guess would be a narrow success, but with considerable uncertainty.
In the absence of any normally competitive party aren't the liberal democrats favoured to be competitive party if anything to make the race competive happens ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #705 on: October 26, 2021, 10:20:22 AM »

A complicating factor is that there may be more sympathy than usual for Paterson - both at Westminster (relevant because he hasn't been suspended yet: this is just a recommendation) and locally - because of the suicide of his wife last year. He has already been playing this card for all that it is worth, so we shall see.

As for the constituency (which was named for Oswestry, after its largest town, until 1983), it was formed in 1918 and has had only six MPs since, all of them Conservatives. The Conservative nomination has traditionally been controlled by the local NFU, which tells you a few things. The last time any of its predecessors elected a non-Conservative MP was the West Shropshire (sometimes also called Oswestry, but with very different boundaries) constituency at a by-election in 1904 - the seat was then re-gained by the Conservatives in 1906, despite the landslide elsewhere. Long ago and far away, but that's sort of the point. There is a Labour vote here (many of the towns have substantial working class elements due to - especially - food manufacturing employment and there are also some former mining villages north of Oswestry), but the local party collapsed some time ago and there's not much organisation. The Liberals used to have a serious presence, but could never make it stick and that all faded away during the 1990s. These days the Green Party has developed a local government vote in Oswestry town, due to a mix of local factors (read: local corruption and planning scandals) and the organisational weakness of all other non-Conservative forces.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #706 on: October 26, 2021, 11:05:02 AM »

A complicating factor is that there may be more sympathy than usual for Paterson - both at Westminster (relevant because he hasn't been suspended yet: this is just a recommendation) and locally - because of the suicide of his wife last year. He has already been playing this card for all that it is worth, so we shall see.

As for the constituency (which was named for Oswestry, after its largest town, until 1983), it was formed in 1918 and has had only six MPs since, all of them Conservatives. The Conservative nomination has traditionally been controlled by the local NFU, which tells you a few things. The last time any of its predecessors elected a non-Conservative MP was the West Shropshire (sometimes also called Oswestry, but with very different boundaries) constituency at a by-election in 1904 - the seat was then re-gained by the Conservatives in 1906, despite the landslide elsewhere. Long ago and far away, but that's sort of the point. There is a Labour vote here (many of the towns have substantial working class elements due to - especially - food manufacturing employment and there are also some former mining villages north of Oswestry), but the local party collapsed some time ago and there's not much organisation. The Liberals used to have a serious presence, but could never make it stick and that all faded away during the 1990s. These days the Green Party has developed a local government vote in Oswestry town, due to a mix of local factors (read: local corruption and planning scandals) and the organisational weakness of all other non-Conservative forces.
Green generarly tend to do quite badly in by-elections, is there any particular reason they can't seem to translte local goverment succses into by-elections suprises like the liberal democrats can ?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #707 on: October 26, 2021, 11:13:49 AM »

Tbf there was debate at the time over the propriety of contesting byelections like Enfield Southgate in 1984 and indeed Eastbourne in 1990 (of course the Tories tried to raise it as an issue in the latter, but did so in such a crude and clumsy fashion that it undoubtedly backfired)

The nature of Cox's killing was so shocking and horrific, however, that Cameron's statement the Tories would not contest the resulting vacancy (followed by the other "main" parties, which in 2016 included UKIP even if that's not the case now) was half expected.

And having set that precedent, it would be tricky to back out of it now.

One other thing that I think was relevant for Batley and Spen was that, fundamentally, the by-election, if competitive, would almost certainly have centered on the same issue (Brexit and related grievances) that led to Jo Cox's murder. I think it was seen therefore as very difficult for the parties to campaign without inflaming tensions in that particular scenario.

Southend West feels like it doesn't suffer from the same issue at all, but the precedent was already set and is difficult to break.
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YL
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« Reply #708 on: October 26, 2021, 12:27:04 PM »

North Shropshire would be an interesting one to watch to see whether the recall petition passes.  So far we've had three: North Antrim (narrow miss), Brecon & Radnor (comfortable success), Peterborough (overwhelming success).

As a mostly rural constituency where there would be no non-incumbent party who would be likely to be particularly optimistic about a by-election, and as the petition would be caused by suspension rather than conviction, this is perhaps most like North Antrim.  OTOH, it is in England (even if place names like Llynclys, Rhydycroesau and Porth-y-waen might suggest otherwise) not Northern Ireland, so it is not that like North Antrim.

My guess would be a narrow success, but with considerable uncertainty.
In the absence of any normally competitive party aren't the liberal democrats favoured to be competitive party if anything to make the race competive happens ?

Yes, I think they're the most likely to make a go of it, but I don't think it's a particularly favourable constituency for the current incarnation of the party, and AIUI they're not that organised in quite a lot of it.  Though I do note that they came quite close in some wards in May (The Meres for example).

Green generarly tend to do quite badly in by-elections, is there any particular reason they can't seem to translte local goverment succses into by-elections suprises like the liberal democrats can ?

They have actually started doing quite well in some local by-elections in a similar way to the Lib Dems, but I suspect in Westminster ones there is usually a better resourced party able to position their candidate as the challenger.  There's also a question of getting lucky with which seats come up.  As Al said, they do have some strength in Oswestry, but I doubt this is their chance.
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YL
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« Reply #709 on: November 03, 2021, 02:15:35 PM »

So no recall petition in North Shropshire for now, thanks to today's ridiculous antics.

In other news, the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election has been called for 2 December.  Nominations close on Tuesday.
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YL
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« Reply #710 on: November 04, 2021, 09:34:35 AM »

And now it appears Paterson is going to resign...

So a North Shropshire by-election early in the New Year, I guess.
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YL
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« Reply #711 on: November 04, 2021, 10:47:10 AM »

Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #712 on: November 05, 2021, 10:29:49 AM »

Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.

Given the likely timetable for all that, a byelection there is unlikely before next spring.
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« Reply #713 on: November 07, 2021, 08:35:51 PM »

Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.
Is the recall petition likely to succeed ?
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YL
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« Reply #714 on: November 08, 2021, 02:44:54 AM »

Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.
Is the recall petition likely to succeed ?

Almost certain to, I'd say.  Labour have said they'll support it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #715 on: November 08, 2021, 08:05:00 AM »

A useful rule of thumb is that nearly all recall petitions are more likely to succeed than not.

The only one to fall short thus far was the original effort in North Antrim - and that only just failed, despite being majorly hampered by a distinctly (and deliberately) low number of signing places.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #716 on: November 08, 2021, 10:35:16 AM »

The irony is that one that might well have failed was North Shropshire as it is a rural constituency without a dominant centre, the opposition parties are poorly to barely organised and that, until the farcical scenes of the past week, Paterson would have been able to count on a degree of sympathy due to his personal circumstances.
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YL
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« Reply #717 on: November 09, 2021, 07:41:29 AM »

The writ was moved for North Shropshire this morning.  Polling day is being reported as 16 December.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #718 on: November 09, 2021, 10:27:29 AM »

The irony is that one that might well have failed was North Shropshire as it is a rural constituency without a dominant centre, the opposition parties are poorly to barely organised and that, until the farcical scenes of the past week, Paterson would have been able to count on a degree of sympathy due to his personal circumstances.

I think it would still have passed even if not as easily as some previous ones, there are surely enough anti-Paterson voters in the towns to get at least close.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #719 on: November 09, 2021, 10:48:27 AM »

The irony is that one that might well have failed was North Shropshire as it is a rural constituency without a dominant centre, the opposition parties are poorly to barely organised and that, until the farcical scenes of the past week, Paterson would have been able to count on a degree of sympathy due to his personal circumstances.

I think it would still have passed even if not as easily as some previous ones, there are surely enough anti-Paterson voters in the towns to get at least close.
Is a there a farmer vs non-farmer divide in this counstieuncy ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #720 on: November 09, 2021, 01:16:48 PM »

I think it would still have passed even if not as easily as some previous ones, there are surely enough anti-Paterson voters in the towns to get at least close.

It might have edged it, yes. But it would have been quite close.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #721 on: November 09, 2021, 01:25:23 PM »

Is a there a farmer vs non-farmer divide in this counstieuncy ?

Farming community (many more people than those directly employed in agriculture) and not, yes. This is extremely productive lowland dairying country, and therefore the farming community is monstrously Tory and has been since they were given the right to vote. There's also a substantial military element, if not to the extent that was the case during the Cold War. The towns are politically and socially mixed: sizeable but not massive market towns with a degree of prosperity in places but also some big estates and more industry (esp. food processing) than outsiders tend to notice.
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YL
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« Reply #722 on: November 09, 2021, 01:27:52 PM »

11 candidates for Old Bexley & Sidcup

Elaine Cheeseman (English Democrats)
Daniel Francis (Labour)
Louie French (Conservatives)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
David Kurten (Heritage Party)
John Poynton (UKIP)
Simone Reynolds (Lib Dem)
Jonathan Rooks (Green)
Richard Tice (Reform UK)
Carol Valinejad (Christian People's Alliance)
Mad Mike Young (Official Monster Raving Loony)
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #723 on: November 10, 2021, 04:35:27 AM »

Is a there a farmer vs non-farmer divide in this counstieuncy ?

Farming community (many more people than those directly employed in agriculture) and not, yes. This is extremely productive lowland dairying country, and therefore the farming community is monstrously Tory and has been since they were given the right to vote. There's also a substantial military element, if not to the extent that was the case during the Cold War. The towns are politically and socially mixed: sizeable but not massive market towns with a degree of prosperity in places but also some big estates and more industry (esp. food processing) than outsiders tend to notice.
Why has labour not been able to make inroads with agricultural communities ? The liberal democrats seem to be stronger among them then the labour party.
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« Reply #724 on: November 10, 2021, 06:17:54 AM »

Is a there a farmer vs non-farmer divide in this counstieuncy ?

Farming community (many more people than those directly employed in agriculture) and not, yes. This is extremely productive lowland dairying country, and therefore the farming community is monstrously Tory and has been since they were given the right to vote. There's also a substantial military element, if not to the extent that was the case during the Cold War. The towns are politically and socially mixed: sizeable but not massive market towns with a degree of prosperity in places but also some big estates and more industry (esp. food processing) than outsiders tend to notice.
Why has labour not been able to make inroads with agricultural communities ? The liberal democrats seem to be stronger among them then the labour party.

I think you have to look at the politics of the 19th century, to understand Liberal and to a greater extent Labour weakness in agricultural areas. The aristocrats and gentry who dominated rural areas in the 19th century were originally divided between Whig and Tory factions. Often leading families negotiated to share out available parliamentary seats, in the counties and rotten boroughs under their influence.

By the 1840s the national leaderships of both parties were influenced by urban interests and insane ideas like the highest national priority no longer being maximising the income of rural landowners.

The Conservative leader of the time was Sir Robert Peel. His money came not from landowning but from manufacturing. Peel favoured free trade and reducing protection for agricultural interests. He went too far, too fast and badly split his party. The Tory squires looked for a protectionist leader in the Commons, as a reaction to the repeal of the Corn laws (which had guaranteed a minimum price for grain and thus had increased the price of food to consumers above the free market price). They found Lord George Bentinck, who had been an obscure backbench MP for decades, but had the advantages of being the son of a Duke and someone prominent in horse racing circles. He was also backed by Benjamin Disraeli, who actually had some political talents.

Meanwhile the Earl of Derby was the only prominent member of the Conservative leadership who broke with Peel and so he  became the prospective protectionist national leader. The Peelites or liberal conservatives remained a distinct group for a time, but ultimately realigned between Derby's party and the Whigs. By 1859 a formal Liberal Party was organised and Peel's political heir, W.E. Gladstone, became the dominant figure in that party for most of the second half of the 19th century.

Gladstone split the Liberal Party, over Irish home rule, in 1886. Most of the Whig families became Liberal Unionists and Liberal prospects in most English agricultural areas disappeared. The agricultural labourers union leaders also joined the Liberal Unionists.

Labour support was slow to develop in most agricultural areas and the reduction in the size of the agricultural labour force during the 20th century made such vote as was developed gradually reduce. The Liberals, weak as they were in agricultural districts, usually had a bit more support there than Labour so this also reduced Labour's chances.
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