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rc18
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« Reply #650 on: October 08, 2021, 07:28:56 AM »
« edited: October 08, 2021, 10:00:53 AM by rc18 »

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.


The core Lib Dem vote in England is very affluent, just look at the seats they win or are close in. Not so much aspirational middle-class than upper middle-class. If we're being horribly general, you could say it's people who view themselves as socially-conscious, but are rather less enthusiastic about having their wealth redistributed...

The regions of real wealth outside the capital are mostly to the west of London; e.g. the M3, M4 and M40 corridors. The ex-industrial east side of London, towards Essex and Kent, is very different; this is generally where the working class of London moved out to. They may be more middle-class now, but in the aspirational sense, rather than inherited wealth.



The parts that voted remain in the south largely match the wealthiest areas.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #651 on: October 08, 2021, 08:51:40 AM »

Comparisons have been made with nearby Bromley and Chislehurst, where the LibDems nearly won a byelection in 2006 with a big swing away from the (still in opposition)Tories.

But even B&C has more favourable demographics for the yellows than this one. Labour have finished second here in every GE since 1992 too (coming reasonably close in 1997 and 2001) and will surely be making more of an effort than they did in C&A recently.

This is one of the best seat defences that could have come up for the Tories at the present time, in short. A loss would be a genuine and major shock, and might even put "unassailable" BoJo in peril.
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rc18
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« Reply #652 on: October 08, 2021, 09:13:42 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 10:43:59 AM by rc18 »

Comparisons have been made with nearby Bromley and Chislehurst, where the LibDems nearly won a byelection in 2006 with a big swing away from the (still in opposition)Tories.

But even B&C has more favourable demographics for the yellows than this one. Labour have finished second here in every GE since 1992 too (coming reasonably close in 1997 and 2001) and will surely be making more of an effort than they did in C&A recently.

This is one of the best seat defences that could have come up for the Tories at the present time, in short. A loss would be a genuine and major shock, and might even put "unassailable" BoJo in peril.

This highlights one of the great misunderstandings about the Lib Dems. Prior to 2010 the Lib Dems were the primary recipients of the none-of-the-above vote. If you weren't a fan of either Labour or the Tories they were the only high-profile protest, even if you weren't a sandal-wearing liberal. The reason for their collapse was mostly the rise in national profile of UKIP.

General election 2010: Bromley and Chislehurst
Party   Candidate   Votes   %
Conservative   Bob Neill   23,569/53.5
Liberal Democrats   Sam Webber   9,669/22.0
Labour   Chris Kirby   7,295/16.6
UKIP   Emmett Jenner   1,451/3.3
BNP   Rowena Savage   1,070/2.4
Green   Roisin Robertson   607/1.5
English Democrat   Jon Cheeseman   376/0.9
Majority   13,900/31.6
Turnout   44,037/67.3


General election 2015: Bromley and Chislehurst
Party   Candidate   Votes   %   ±%
Conservative   Bob Neill   23,343/53.0/-0.5
Labour   John Courtneidge   9,779/22.2/+5.6
UKIP   Emmett Jenner   6,285/14.3/+11.0
Liberal Democrats   Sam Webber   2,836/6.4/-15.6
Green   Roisin Robertson 1,823/4.1/+2.6
Majority   13,564/30.8/-0.8
Turnout   44,066/68.4/+1.1   

That's why the Lib Dems got decent votes in the early 2000s in areas that went very Brexity.

The idea that the Lib Dems might do well in a certain constituency because of their vote in the 2000s is pure fantasy, especially after bollocks-to-Brexit.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #653 on: October 08, 2021, 09:15:35 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 09:18:58 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Though as it happens B&C is still significantly less pro-Brexit than OB&S.

Plus more graduates and similar stuff.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #654 on: October 08, 2021, 09:18:01 AM »

The Lib Dems did have some success in local elections in Bexley in the 1980s, primarily in this seat, and that staggered on until about 2006 in some wards. That said, it will have been primarily a right-of-centre vote that later found its home in UKIP. Indeed, the last ward they won in was the same ward the BNP nearly won in a by-election.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #655 on: October 08, 2021, 10:46:57 AM »

This has been looming for a while. Brokenshire wasn't my cup of tea politically or otherwise, but his death is genuinely very sad.

Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London and that its differences to places like Richmond have nothing to do with the fact that many middle aged residents can claim working class grandparents: this is England, most of the people even in Richmond over fifty will be able to claim at least one. We need to avoid that sort of thing as it leads to very unhelpful misunderstandings of places. It's different because a different sort of middle class person predominates here: this is the land of the Middle Manager not the Higher Professional.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #656 on: October 08, 2021, 10:49:49 AM »

: this is the land of the Middle Manager not the Higher Professional.
what's the difference ?
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rc18
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« Reply #657 on: October 08, 2021, 11:32:18 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 12:10:43 PM by rc18 »

Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

E.g. average house price in September 2021 in Bexley;

£450,376

That's one of the lowest in all of Greater London, only Barking and Dagenham is significantly lower.

Average house price in Richmond;

£886,052

One of the highest in Greater London, only significantly less than the likes of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster.

It may not have as many areas of grinding poverty as some of the inner London boroughs (which tend to also have very wealthy neighbourhoods), which may be why you imagine it is affluent, but in reality it's absolutely nothing like the wealthy boroughs.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #658 on: October 08, 2021, 11:35:04 AM »

Surprised no one has mentioned the Orpington by-election...


Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London and that its differences to places like Richmond have nothing to do with the fact that many middle aged residents can claim working class grandparents: this is England, most of the people even in Richmond over fifty will be able to claim at least one. We need to avoid that sort of thing as it leads to very unhelpful misunderstandings of places. It's different because a different sort of middle class person predominates here: this is the land of the Middle Manager not the Higher Professional.

That's essentially what I mean. It is a slightly nebulous cultural difference, and it is surely unlikely the history of the places has nothing to do with it: it may not be on the same level as France, but local historical factors continue to play an important role in English voting patterns. Perhaps it is worth mentioning that this is the part of London where Shaun Bailey got some of his best performances, whereas Richmond is where Zac Goldsmith got some of his best (local factors, of course, playing a role there too).
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« Reply #659 on: October 08, 2021, 11:41:22 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 11:44:43 AM by Alcibiades »

It is of course just one measure, but this quite neatly captures the difference between Richmond Park and Old Bexley and Sidcup: 64% have a degree or equivalent in the former (the highest of any constituency in the country), compared to 27% in the latter (roughly in line with the national average).
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YL
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« Reply #660 on: October 08, 2021, 01:17:55 PM »

Here are the ranks (out of 650) of some constituencies in each of the nine occupation categories in the 2011 census.

Richmond ParkChesham & AmershamO Bexley & SidcupBatley & SpenHartlepool
"Managers, directors and senior officials"48310317524
"Professional occupations"973331538514
"Associate professional and technical occupations"1953140429483
"Administrative and secretarial occupations"6313431255498
"Skilled trades occupations"643552278236140
"Caring, leisure and other service occupations"64353055440565
"Sales and customer service occupations"645622453226102
"Process plant and machine operatives"6466144494498
"Elementary occupations"648629594232187
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #661 on: October 08, 2021, 01:25:05 PM »

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

Not 'the entire borough of Bexley' but 'the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup', yes. I would certainly not describe Erith as 'rather affluent', but neither it nor similar areas nearby are in this constituency. Which is largely comprised of privately-built, owner-occupied residential suburbs (with one of the lowest percentages of people living in social housing in the GLA area) where most people in employment work in well-paid jobs with a heavy lean towards lower management and administrative/secretarial work. It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond, but is actually a much more 'typical' sort of middle class area. There are exceptions (particularly towards the southern end), but then there are in just about every constituency in the country these days. Most places are a patchwork, most constituencies are artificial constructions, voting for Brexit or having a grandparent born in Rotherhithe in 1904 does not make you working class.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #662 on: October 08, 2021, 01:39:37 PM »

Of course, it used to be Ted Heath's seat and Labour nearly won it in 1966.

It did used to be Ted Heath's seat, but not until 1974. Before then (and at the time of the '66 election) it was divided between Bexley (Heath's seat) and Chislehurst (which also included a northern slice of what became the London Borough of Bromley from Mottingham out to St Paul's Cray). Essentially it took what were then the best parts of both constituencies for the Tories - a concept more than merely relative back in the days when Labour was much more competitive in humdrum suburbia than is common now - and put them together in one seat.
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #663 on: October 08, 2021, 01:56:55 PM »

Really, it's more a case of Richmond being unusually strong for the Lib Dems than Bexley being unusually weak for them.
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rc18
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« Reply #664 on: October 08, 2021, 02:13:19 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 02:51:00 PM by rc18 »

BEXLEY?!

It's nothing like Richmond, unless you are referring to the gated Bexleyheath enclave (not in this constituency). The rest of the borough is most definitely not "rather affluent". I know, I used to work all around there a couple of years ago!

Not 'the entire borough of Bexley' but 'the constituency of Old Bexley and Sidcup', yes. I would certainly not describe Erith as 'rather affluent', but neither it nor similar areas nearby are in this constituency. Which is largely comprised of privately-built, owner-occupied residential suburbs (with one of the lowest percentages of people living in social housing in the GLA area) where most people in employment work in well-paid jobs with a heavy lean towards lower management and administrative/secretarial work. It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond, but is actually a much more 'typical' sort of middle class area. There are exceptions (particularly towards the southern end), but then there are in just about every constituency in the country these days.

Old Bexley and Sidcup is no Erith, sure, but it's no Bexleyheath either. The relative lack of social housing does not necessarily make a place affluent. And where is this well-paid stuff coming from? The average wage here is pretty distinctly average for London. It seems you are conflating basic administrative middle-class as "affluent", which is frankly bizarre. Basic admin jobs are typically the employment that skilled/manual labours moved into during the 90s, these are the old "Essex man" and "Mondeo man" types. Why do you think the percentage of graduates is so low (for London)?

It's humdrum and not at all like Richmond

A moment ago you were claiming it's just like Richmond except the precise types of middle-class jobs people have. Sorry, no, they are vastly different places with totally different histories of wealth.  

Most places are a patchwork, most constituencies are artificial constructions, voting for Brexit or having a grandparent born in Rotherhithe in 1904 does not make you working class.

Good job I never said that then, isn't it?

Quote
This is generally where the working class of London moved out to. They may be more middle-class now...

But the point is the lower admin "middle-class" has its origins in the working class, the managers and directors of Richmond Park most certainly do not.
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vileplume
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« Reply #665 on: October 08, 2021, 06:31:07 PM »

RIP James Brokenshire, 53 is no age at all.

Regarding the by-election to replace him, it'll likely be an easy Tory hold and and the Lib Dems are unlikely to do anything here other than add a few % to their vote share. It's not a demographically friendly seat for them for reasons others have stated, they have very little local presence here, aren't doing well in the opinion polls nationally and are starting from a very poor third. Labour does a some base support here in the poorer areas (unlike in Chesham and Amersham where the little they had was 'promiscuous progressives') so will actually put up a fight to hold on to their vote whilst Lib Dem sympathetic Tory voters (not that there's many here in the first place) don't tend to flip if they perceive Labour as having even the remotest chance of being competitive.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #666 on: October 09, 2021, 05:25:16 AM »

It will very likely be a Tory hold yes, but the likelihood of their still being a significant swing against them shouldn't be dismissed - especially if they are more unpopular generally by the time it is held.
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Blair
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« Reply #667 on: October 09, 2021, 06:16:58 AM »

Without any local knowledge this is a seat that Labour should improve on compared to 2019 even if they're still on track to lose the next election.

The Labour share of the vote in 2019 was still higher than 2015 & 2010.

It has passing similarities to the types of voters that Keir based his leadership on winning; the seat might be in Greater London but I don't necessarily see it as a London based seat.

One interesting development; I think Labour's new by-election selection rules will apply. This means the shortlist will be drawn up by 5 people; three from the local party executive (a body elected yearly by local members), one from the regional board (in this case London- recently switched to being controlled by Lab Moderates) and one from the NEC (most likely a union member to continue THIGMOO)

Who will Labour pick? The local council has 10 labour councillors; but it's the type of seat where London adjacent people (union officials, party staffers, bag carriers etc) can find a local connection & run. So I expect a dry run from someone who wants to be an MP one day... in that spirit Labour's candidate in 2006 Bromley by-election was Rachel Reeves (she is from South London but now represents a seat in Leeds)
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Blair
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« Reply #668 on: October 09, 2021, 06:18:59 AM »

Labour have had the decency not to campaign in this seat beforehand to this news.

Other parties, who shall remain nameless, were widely reported to have campaigned when MPs have been on their deathbed in the past.
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vileplume
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« Reply #669 on: October 10, 2021, 07:22:40 AM »

Labour have had the decency not to campaign in this seat beforehand to this news.

Other parties, who shall remain nameless, were widely reported to have campaigned when MPs have been on their deathbed in the past.


Well tbf Old Bexley and Sidcup is not a seat Labour have the remotest chance of winning or coming close to doing so. Campaigning before an MP had actually passed in a utter no hope seat like this one would just be terrible PR for no material gain. If it was a seat they could actually win I expect Labour would have been readying their campaign prior to the MP passing (likewise with the Tories), maybe they wouldn't have been as blatant about it as those certain other parties but they'd be preparing (as morbid as that sounds).
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adma
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« Reply #670 on: October 10, 2021, 10:43:09 AM »

Labour have had the decency not to campaign in this seat beforehand to this news.

Other parties, who shall remain nameless, were widely reported to have campaigned when MPs have been on their deathbed in the past.


Well tbf Old Bexley and Sidcup is not a seat Labour have the remotest chance of winning or coming close to doing so. Campaigning before an MP had actually passed in a utter no hope seat like this one would just be terrible PR for no material gain. If it was a seat they could actually win I expect Labour would have been readying their campaign prior to the MP passing (likewise with the Tories), maybe they wouldn't have been as blatant about it as those certain other parties but they'd be preparing (as morbid as that sounds).

In a Blair-era circumstance, they'd have had a chance--though perhaps *not* in a byelection (let's say, if Ted Heath died in his latter days in office).

Right now, at most it'd be more a matter of opposition forces in mutual cancellation--that is, it's neither Labour enough, nor Lib Dem enough, nor (for the sake of argument) UKIP/Brexit enough for a byelection steal.  "Defeat" here would be the Tories with less than a majority (last in 2005, if barely) or reduced to marginality (2001, 1997).
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Geoffrey Howe
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« Reply #671 on: October 10, 2021, 12:16:17 PM »

I wouldn't underestimate the unhappiness of the base at this point, especially in the South. The extent to which that percolates through the population at large is a different question, and there are indications that it has not so much - certainly not as much as one might expect in such circumstances. I don't think anyone expects anything other than a Conservative hold - Old Bexley and Sidcup does not have the choice pick of demographics and specific local issues for the stars to align as they did in Chesham & Amersham. The main question, as adma says, will be the swing; ultimately this will come down to where we find ourselves the week before polling day and how enthused the respective sides are to turn out. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #672 on: October 13, 2021, 11:38:08 AM »

Claudia Webbe (Leicester East) has been convicted of harassment charges. She was elected as a Labour MP but had the whip withdrawn once she faced criminal charges: she will not be getting it back and will presumably be expelled from the party. She has not been sentenced yet, but the maximum sentence for harassment (six months imprisonment) is less than the threshold for automatic disqualification from the Commons, meaning that there will only be a by-election if she resigns or if she is recalled. The former does not seem particularly likely at this stage as she has made noises about a possible appeal.

She was elected in controversial circumstances: an important figure on the Hard Left of the Labour Party for years and a member of the NEC she had previously lost a string of selections before the sudden Fall of Keith Vaz in the runup to the 2019 General Election gave the then-leadership an opportunity to parachute her in to the vacant Leicester East. This went down poorly with the substantial Indian community in the constituency (largely Gujarati Hindu) and, when combined with certain other issues, resulted in a very large swing. Supporters of Vaz continue to control the CLP and Vaz himself is its Chair.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #673 on: October 13, 2021, 11:41:48 AM »

Famously/infamously this was her candidate application form, note no. 5:

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vileplume
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« Reply #674 on: October 13, 2021, 11:54:34 AM »

Famously/infamously this was her candidate application form, note no. 5:



Love her misspelling of Poplar and Limehouse haha Cheesy
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