UK By-elections thread, 2021-
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:16:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK By-elections thread, 2021-
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 ... 125
Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170040 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #625 on: July 02, 2021, 07:26:11 AM »

Did Galloway's campaign appeal to both BNPish and Biradariish currents, or does it just seem "aesthetically" like the sort of campaign that might have? It's hard as a foreign armchair observer to tell to what extent he was running as a Muslim sectional candidate and to what extent he was running as a general-interest turbo#populist Purple heart maniac.

There is some speculation - particularly from shocked Conservatives* - that he might have taken a small but sizeable chunk of the white far-right vote (and doing so seems to have been part of the plan) along with his more anticipated support, but it's hard to be entirely sure.

*To which someone might point out that a) such voters aren't yours even when they are lending you their votes and b) do you necessarily want to be in a position where you're relying on them voting for you?
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #626 on: July 02, 2021, 10:12:34 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2021, 10:45:51 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Oof.  Cheers Hancock.

Oh well - I think I'm the only one who predicted Gorgeous George above 20%.  The rest of my prediction was off of course.

Tory campaign seemed a bit complacent to me tbh, and certainly seemed to think that replicating the Hartlepool formula almost to the letter - low-profile "outsider" candidate who does little but repeat "build back better" and "change", nakedly trying to bribe voters by saying you will only get local goodies if you vote in a Tory, and just hope to profit from Labour misfortune - would work in just the same way again. But it was a different seat, with a better Labour candidate and campaign (especially if you give credence to the reports locals effectively took it over mid-way when it was somewhat floundering)

Though not as dramatically as in Chesham and Amersham, its the second time in a fortnight that the Tories have been over-optimistic about their chances.
Logged
afleitch
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #627 on: July 02, 2021, 10:32:25 AM »

For fun, the average vote share change in the 3 English by-elections, despite the crazy swings in two of them is surprisingly neat:

Tory +0.5
Labour -9.2
Lib Dem +8.7
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,248


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #628 on: July 03, 2021, 12:30:31 PM »

An astounding variety of headlines over the past two days, from the Torygraph stressing the narrowness of the Labour win to the Grauniad presenting it as a resounding upset. Moar liek Banter and Spin amirite?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #629 on: July 03, 2021, 01:28:43 PM »

An astounding variety of headlines over the past two days, from the Torygraph stressing the narrowness of the Labour win to the Grauniad presenting it as a resounding upset. Moar liek Banter and Spin amirite?

Particularly impressive as all of that is spontaneous work: an awful lot of copy was pre-written and ready to go but had to be spiked when the result came through...
Logged
ElectionObserver
Rookie
**
Posts: 63
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #630 on: July 04, 2021, 04:33:28 AM »

I was unsure whether Labour would hold this seat or not, but if I knew that Galloway would take over 20% of the vote, I would have had this down as a certain Conservative gain. They did incredibly well to hold on given that.

From what I have seen, Labour just ran a far superior ground game to the Conservatives who were far too complacent (as we saw the other week in Chesham and Amersham).

They also allowed the narrative that they would win to become the mainstream one. That meant a Labour hold, no matter how narrow, was incredibly good for Labour. Starmer woiuld have been in an exceptionally difficult position if they had lost, though I think he would have clung on.
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #631 on: July 04, 2021, 05:04:21 AM »



'Case you wanted further material.

Sigh...
Logged
adma
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,718
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #632 on: July 04, 2021, 06:22:19 AM »

"Stop The Steal"! ;-)
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #633 on: July 04, 2021, 09:24:22 AM »

Hopefully he will be about as successful as Trump, then.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #634 on: July 04, 2021, 10:06:03 AM »

Reminder that Galloway did this trash when he lost his Bradford seat by over 10K votes. Its not serious, its attention grabbing - which is the goal of his profession.
Logged
Boobs
HCP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,509


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #635 on: July 08, 2021, 10:07:41 AM »

How likely is a Wakefield by-election?
Logged
beesley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,140
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #636 on: July 08, 2021, 10:15:09 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2021, 04:10:22 AM by Tax Havens are the real Sanctuary Cities »

How likely is a Wakefield by-election?

Purely legally, it depends on the conviction and sentence. If an MP is sentenced to over a year's custody, they are automatically disqualified from the House of Commons.
Logged
Boobs
HCP
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,509


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #637 on: July 08, 2021, 11:58:00 AM »

How likely is a Wakefield by-election?

Purely legally, it depends on the conviction and sentence - if the sentence is over a year (which seems plausible here) the MP is automatically disqualified from the House of Commons.

So it’s more of a question of when, not if?

On paper this seems like it would be a very interesting by-election (although the ones we’ve had so far have not lacked for excitement, either) given its marginal history. I’m not too keen on the local scandal helping Labour all too much considering the party’s general dysfunction and especially in Yorks. And given that Khan would not be standing in the by-election… Even though we expect the incumbent party to perform worse due to scandal (partially in Hartlepool, although I wouldn’t attribute much of Labour’s loss due to that), I’m thinking about the rather underwhelming Lib Dem win in Brecon & Radnorshire, and that had Davies running again…
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #638 on: July 08, 2021, 12:08:12 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley

---

Anyway, the Labour Party is pretty well organised in Wakefield district, though it must be admitted that this is truer of the outlying parts than the city itself. It's also one of those places where Labour polled a lot better in the May elections than at the last GE, though, again, particularly outside the city.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #639 on: July 08, 2021, 09:45:50 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley

---

Anyway, the Labour Party is pretty well organised in Wakefield district, though it must be admitted that this is truer of the outlying parts than the city itself. It's also one of those places where Labour polled a lot better in the May elections than at the last GE, though, again, particularly outside the city.
If does become a Labour Gain do you think that will mostly end talk about getting rid of Keir Starmer ?
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #640 on: July 09, 2021, 02:57:50 AM »

Anyway, the Labour Party is pretty well organised in Wakefield district, though it must be admitted that this is truer of the outlying parts than the city itself. It's also one of those places where Labour polled a lot better in the May elections than at the last GE, though, again, particularly outside the city.

Aggregated results in May:
Con 11730
Lab 10541
Green 1768
LD 285 (Horbury & South Ossett and Ossett only)
Yorkshire Party 263 (Wakefield North only)
TUSC 118 (Wakefield East only)
For Britain 101 (Wakefield West only)
UKIP 85 (Wakefield North only)
Independent 65 (Wakefield North only)

Tories won Ossett, Wakefield East and Wakefield Rural, Labour won Horbury & South Ossett, Wakefield North and Wakefield West.

Boundaries are slightly odd: the seat doesn't include Wakefield South (in Hemsworth) and does include Ossett and Horbury which are really Heavy Woollen District towns and might fit better in Kirklees.  The proposed new boundaries move Ossett, Horbury and "Wakefield Rural" to a new Ossett & Denby Dale constituency crossing the Kirklees boundary which would also include Wakefield South, and replace them with the two Outwood wards currently in the Morley & Outwood constituency and Rothwell over the border in Leeds (but not really part of "Leeds proper").

Anyway, there may well not be a by-election.
Logged
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #641 on: July 09, 2021, 05:04:49 AM »

Delyn is probably a more likely candidate for a by-election. Not imminently, as the MP won't resign and the Tories are prepared to make the right noises but not to do anything that would allow a recall petition to be lodged in relation to his actions. However, he's clearly an idiot and the likelihood of him doing something else that enables a recall position is not small.
Logged
Crane
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,080


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #642 on: July 09, 2021, 12:54:01 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley


Would hastily remind you that nobody on this site has anything to do with that trial and nothing we say here has any relevance to the proceedings? Tf?
Logged
MaxQue
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,600
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #643 on: July 09, 2021, 01:05:00 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley


Would hastily remind you that nobody on this site has anything to do with that trial and nothing we say here has any relevance to the proceedings? Tf?

UK courts have an extremely wide description of subjurice and have been known to crackdown on internet forums discussing pending affairs.
Logged
Crane
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,080


Political Matrix
E: -8.16, S: 3.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #644 on: July 09, 2021, 01:08:20 PM »

Would hastily remind everyone that British criminal law does extend to internet discussions and that posting anything that could be argued to prejudice a trial is not a good idea Smiley


Would hastily remind you that nobody on this site has anything to do with that trial and nothing we say here has any relevance to the proceedings? Tf?

UK courts have an extremely wide description of subjurice and have been known to crackdown on internet forums discussing pending affairs.

Even by the most generation interpretation I doubt that would apply to discussing the implications of someone's parliamentary seat becoming vacant.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #645 on: July 09, 2021, 06:03:45 PM »

All I'm saying is that it would not be a good idea to post anything presuming the guilt of anyone (particularly a public figure) presently facing criminal proceedings. The same would apply to a couple of other honourable members as well. 'Ah but what if x happens' - fine. 'X is clearly guilty so...' - no, do not post this. I make this point because the owner of this forum has a thing about legal issues. Smiley
Logged
TheTide
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,593
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #646 on: October 08, 2021, 05:44:36 AM »

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.
Logged
Lord Halifax
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,304
Papua New Guinea


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #647 on: October 08, 2021, 05:53:44 AM »

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.
Logged
Geoffrey Howe
Geoffrey Howe admirer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,788
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #648 on: October 08, 2021, 06:57:36 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2021, 01:51:22 PM by Geoffrey Howe »

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.


It's not liberal in the same way that Richmond is. Fairly pro-Brexit, UKIP did quite well back in the day. It's more Essex/Northern Kent than Surrey, and that shows in how it votes.
Of course, it used to be Ted Heath's seat with different boundaries and Labour nearly won his seat in 1966.
Logged
jeron
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 662
Netherlands
Political Matrix
E: -1.16, S: -7.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #649 on: October 08, 2021, 07:01:17 AM »

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.


That would be only be true for the more well to do areas. This seat voted for brexit by more than 60%. The same is true for other seats in East London, like Bexleyheath and Crayford, Hornchurch and Upminster, Romford or Dagenham and Rainham which are all seats where the LibDems perform poorly.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 21 22 23 24 25 [26] 27 28 29 30 31 ... 125  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 11 queries.