UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[beesley]

To me the main difference between the two is that North Shropshire would be more of a national indictment - there is no local wedge issue there like planning was in Chesham, that can be quickly solved by a potential change in policy.

[beesley]

Nice news to wake up to this morning.     

I too noticed that if Labour got the same vote share as last time and all of it was taken from the LDs, Morgan would still have won. Perhaps it is sensationalism, but it is impressive how many Tory LD switchers there were (and how many the media seems to come across, all in the sort of demographic that was more used to honour in government)

Forgive me for thinking that when people say Johnson only has one final chance after this, it comes across as more than a little ridiculous. I'm aware that this references his position as party leader and not as Prime Minister, but if all the existing problems with Covid and the economy as well as sleaze weren't enough, this doesn't seem a remotely hard-line position. But I suppose it is a logical one now Brexit is out of the way and the party has no electoral need for him, as Al said.

[beesley]

Nice news to wake up to this morning.     

I too noticed that if Labour got the same vote share as last time and all of it was taken from the LDs, Morgan would still have won. Perhaps it is sensationalism, but it is impressive how many Tory LD switchers there were (and how many the media seems to come across, all in the sort of demographic that was more used to honour in government)

Forgive me for thinking that when people say Johnson only has one final chance after this, it comes across as more than a little ridiculous. I'm aware that this references his position as party leader and not as Prime Minister, but if all the existing problems with Covid and the economy as well as sleaze weren't enough, this doesn't seem a remotely hard-line position. But I suppose it is a logical one now Brexit is out of the way and the party has no electoral need for him, as Al said.

Is this true though? Could Rishi Sunak or Thatcherite Liz Truss really be expected to hold on to all these "red wall" seats Johnson gained last time around more so than Johnson himself? Seems quite the gamble to me...

It's valid enough to say that they wouldn't - and I doubt they would be the best fits - but if Boris becomes as much of a liability that they are as far behind in voter intentions as they appear to be, then the party ceases to have that electoral need for him because they have an electoral need for someone more. At that point, it's more of a 2019 picture where there were only three losses outside of Scotland in the Remain seats - not 2017 where there were a few gains in seats of the 'opposing trend' If the qualities that he has become liabilities (which is more what was being alluded to by previous posters), that is quite the turnaround. And any Labour government/poll lead will inevitably mean decent gains in those targets - not all switchers have to be Tory lent votes coming back to the fold, especially if Labour works harder to present a big unifying vision.

I also think the number of those seats that don't fall into the 'seats that the Tories would've likely gained in 2019 anyway' (Bishop Auckland, Great Grimsby) and 'Brexit-voting Labour seats they gained in 2019 that would be competitive in the best circumstances' (Bolton NE, NW Durham) is quite small, but that's a point I'm less confident on.

Though there are a large number of 'ifs' in those paragraphs I just wrote, the party has time to work them out.

[beesley]

What even constitutes as the fringe left nowadays?

The Worker’s Party (George Galloway’s reactionary communists) , Breakthrough Party (young Corbynistas), and Northern Independence Party (extremely online southern based students) are the only 3 that immediately come to mind. The more traditional far left as represented by Socialist Party etc seems to have melted away and only contests random council wards if they even still functionally exist.

A few outfits said that they wouldn't stand against Corbyn's Labour party, most notably TUSC - who did return and stand a few hundred candidates last May.

[beesley]

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

There are three big hitters for the DUP in Lagan Valley - Donaldson, Edwin Poots and Paul Givan. It's possible the DUP win three seats there, as did happen when constituencies had six MLAs, but it doesn't seem likely. So assuming a by-election takes place, it's possible Poots or Givan do the swap as so often happens. Not sure either of them would be entirely keen on that.

[beesley]

Dave Nellist is standing as the TUSC candidate in Erdington.

[beesley]

There's a likely by-election in Lagan Valley, caused by the DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson needing to get himself into the Northern Ireland Assembly in the forthcoming election (this May) if he's going to become First Minister.

Briefly, it looked like this wasn't going to happen after all, because the Government announced a plan to remove the ban on double jobbing between Westminster and Stormont in certain restricted circumstances which looked rather specifically defined to allow Donaldson to remain an MP until the next Westminster election.  But now this plan, which went down pretty badly with everybody other than the DUP and some Tories, has been withdrawn, so the by-election is back on again.

This one looks to be a snoozefest based on past results, unless I’m missing something.

It ought to be, but there was a 17% swing to Alliance in 2019 and with the DUP not in particularly great shape at the moment they'd give it a go in a by-election.  If the big U Unionist vote splits they might have a chance.

The trouble for the Alliance is that they have had some local drama since 2019; their long-time MLA from the area, Trevor Lunn, defected to sit as an Independent in 2020. He's already announced his retirement at the next election anyway, but he's a huge figure in local politics in Lagan Valley and has left the Alliance a bit disorganized there in particular.

He has endorsed the Alliance candidate, whoever that is. I think if it hasn't already been announced it'll be Sorcha Eastwood - reasonably strong.

[beesley]

Reform have been trying no less than usual.

[beesley]

Joke parties like the LibDems, Loonies and Elvis did very poorly - again a reflection of low turnout.

To be fair the Loonies and Elvis, they probably tried harder than the Lib Dems and shouldn't be treated as a joke candidate to the same extent.

[beesley]

UKIP was a perfect storm that probably can't be recreated and it would be a waste of time to even try recreate what they had.

RefUK's current strategy of being essentially "honest, real Tories" isn't going to win them parliamentary seats any time soon but might be the best long-term strategy, who knows.

On a slightly amusing note I have been "invited to stand as a parliamentary candidate" by RefUK. They must be really desperate for candidates. I'm nuts.

I think you would get more votes than Reform did last time in any of the South Gloucestershire seats.

[beesley]

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

Yeah, if there is genuine local anger at a stitch-up then it can result in support for the non-anointed candidate. The most obvious recent example of this being in Bassetlaw in 2019 where the national party blocked the very popular council leader from standing and instead shortlisted a far left councillor from elsewhere in Nottinghamshire, and a pro-remain former Camden councillor. Local members were so pissed they voted for the latter (of course this being a stitch-up, the NEC forced the Corbynista on them anyways).

Also Coventry North West - Taiwo Owatemi was the spare in about three other seats too before being selected here.

[beesley]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Largely, but none of that mattered compared to the fact that the Tory was from Birmingham whereas she had local roots. How much that mattered is another thing, but yeah