UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

It's also very odd.  It was conducted in 83 Northern seats, not particularly focussed on marginals (both safe Labour and safe Tory seats were included, but many Northern marginals were not; also the one Lib Dem seat in the North was not included), but it did include Hartlepool.  It produced predictions for all of those seats, but not for seats outside the 83.  Overall it shows Labour making modest progress, with a reasonable number of gains, including one in a seat Labour didn't win even in 1997 (Altrincham & Sale West, but note that the details in this sort of thing can be badly off), but also some 2019 losses not regained (Sedgefield the most striking, note same caveat).  Because of the weird selection of seats, it's hard to translate into a national picture, but I'd guess hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but a little short of a majority.

I don't think it says as much about the by-election as some people seem to think, even if it's accurate.  People don't vote in the same way in by-elections as in general elections.

[Coldstream]

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

It's also very odd.  It was conducted in 83 Northern seats, not particularly focussed on marginals (both safe Labour and safe Tory seats were included, but many Northern marginals were not; also the one Lib Dem seat in the North was not included), but it did include Hartlepool.  It produced predictions for all of those seats, but not for seats outside the 83.  Overall it shows Labour making modest progress, with a reasonable number of gains, including one in a seat Labour didn't win even in 1997 (Altrincham & Sale West, but note that the details in this sort of thing can be badly off), but also some 2019 losses not regained (Sedgefield the most striking, note same caveat).  Because of the weird selection of seats, it's hard to translate into a national picture, but I'd guess hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but a little short of a majority.

I don't think it says as much about the by-election as some people seem to think, even if it's accurate.  People don't vote in the same way in by-elections as in general elections.

Altrincham and Sale West is pretty similar to seats like Canterbury that went for Labour post-2016 due to Brexit, albeit more rural hence why it didn’t switch in 2017/19, so I could see Labour winning it next time even on a middling night.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Focaldata are just... not very good and so not really worth paying attention to. There's a real and stupid greed for data at all costs in what passes for electoral analysis in this country at the moment, which often leads to more credence being given to things than is an entirely good idea.

[beesley]

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

It's also very odd.  It was conducted in 83 Northern seats, not particularly focussed on marginals (both safe Labour and safe Tory seats were included, but many Northern marginals were not; also the one Lib Dem seat in the North was not included), but it did include Hartlepool.  It produced predictions for all of those seats, but not for seats outside the 83.  Overall it shows Labour making modest progress, with a reasonable number of gains, including one in a seat Labour didn't win even in 1997 (Altrincham & Sale West, but note that the details in this sort of thing can be badly off), but also some 2019 losses not regained (Sedgefield the most striking, note same caveat).  Because of the weird selection of seats, it's hard to translate into a national picture, but I'd guess hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but a little short of a majority.

I don't think it says as much about the by-election as some people seem to think, even if it's accurate.  People don't vote in the same way in by-elections as in general elections.

Altrincham and Sale West is pretty similar to seats like Canterbury that went for Labour post-2016 due to Brexit, albeit more rural hence why it didn’t switch in 2017/19, so I could see Labour winning it next time even on a middling night.

I'm not sure how Altrincham and Sale West is more rural, even if the seat does contain Partington, but the broader point stands. There are quite a few of those potential 'Major/Labour' seats: Chipping Barnet, Kensington, Chingford and WG, Truro and Falmouth, and Wycombe, and if Labour were to win a majority there would likely be loads of them: Bournemouth East and West, Basingstoke, York Outer, Worthing East and Shoreham, etc.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lmao apparently NIP may run Thelma Walker, MP for Colne Valley for two years.

[Coldstream]

It's MRP, which models individual seats by applying the national voting intention of demographics.  Perhaps useful for a broad indication of the "state of play" but isn't going to be very predictive of a by-election.

It's also very odd.  It was conducted in 83 Northern seats, not particularly focussed on marginals (both safe Labour and safe Tory seats were included, but many Northern marginals were not; also the one Lib Dem seat in the North was not included), but it did include Hartlepool.  It produced predictions for all of those seats, but not for seats outside the 83.  Overall it shows Labour making modest progress, with a reasonable number of gains, including one in a seat Labour didn't win even in 1997 (Altrincham & Sale West, but note that the details in this sort of thing can be badly off), but also some 2019 losses not regained (Sedgefield the most striking, note same caveat).  Because of the weird selection of seats, it's hard to translate into a national picture, but I'd guess hung parliament with the Tories the largest party but a little short of a majority.

I don't think it says as much about the by-election as some people seem to think, even if it's accurate.  People don't vote in the same way in by-elections as in general elections.

Altrincham and Sale West is pretty similar to seats like Canterbury that went for Labour post-2016 due to Brexit, albeit more rural hence why it didn’t switch in 2017/19, so I could see Labour winning it next time even on a middling night.

I'm not sure how Altrincham and Sale West is more rural, even if the seat does contain Partington, but the broader point stands. There are quite a few of those potential 'Major/Labour' seats: Chipping Barnet, Kensington, Chingford and WG, Truro and Falmouth, and Wycombe, and if Labour were to win a majority there would likely be loads of them: Bournemouth East and West, Basingstoke, York Outer, Worthing East and Shoreham, etc.

Well more rural in that it’s got countryside, whereas Kensington, Chipping Barnet, Canterbury etc are almost wholly urban. Though it’s less rural than Truro and Falmouth. And yeah I agree with you that Worthing, Bournemouth, Basingstoke are where the next Labour majority will go through.

[CumbrianLefty]

And it shows Labour 3 points ahead.

For the record, they were 9 points ahead in December 2019, albeit with a divided opposition. Labour's overall percentage of the vote is about the same in this poll as it was in 2019.

To the extent any of this could be seen as indicative of what's on the ground, it's mostly bad news for Labour.

To reiterate, it isn't an actual poll.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lmao apparently NIP may run Thelma Walker, MP for Colne Valley for two years.

I just found out today that the bloke who runs that Twitter account lives in Brighton lmao.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Labour is to win a majority at any time in the non-distant future it would need to win a lot of seats everywhere.* Not in a position to pick and choose, the numbers do not work and can't. But that's for the future.

*Of course it happens that most of this country is actually quite similar and is increasingly so and that this actually explains much of our tediously volatile politics these days.

[Coldstream]

If Labour is to win a majority at any time in the non-distant future it would need to win a lot of seats everywhere.* Not in a position to pick and choose, the numbers do not work and can't. But that's for the future.

*Of course it happens that most of this country is actually quite similar and is increasingly so and that this actually explains much of our tediously volatile politics these days.

Sure, but Labour aren’t going to win every seat or see the same swing in every seat, so it’s okay so speculate as to which kinds of seats Labour will be most likely to win in a hypothetical victory...

[beesley]

Obviously Labour would need to win back loads of seats they lost in 2019. But there are seats they lost in 1997 that they would be more likely to win than seats they won even in 2010. That would apply even on a uniform swing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Lmao apparently NIP may run Thelma Walker, MP for Colne Valley for two years.

I just found out today that the bloke who runs that Twitter account lives in Brighton lmao.

The founder of the party is apparently a sociology lecturer at the University of Bath, which feels painfully on the nose.

Also, what is it with Bath and attracting people with nationalist politics and dodgy Twitter accounts?

[CumbrianLefty]

Lmao apparently NIP may run Thelma Walker, MP for Colne Valley for two years.

They have been busy having a go at Labour "parachuting" in their candidate (from distant Stockton) previously, so this would fit well with the level of political nous they have displayed thus far

[Coldstream]

It's a very boring point but I do wonder how the Northern Independence Party is going to actually run a by-election campaign.

Lmao apparently NIP may run Thelma Walker, MP for Colne Valley for two years.

They have been busy having a go at Labour "parachuting" in their candidate (from distant Stockton) previously, so this would fit well with the level of political nous they have displayed thus far

It's mainly just sh**t posting twitter accounts flirting with it, but the fact that a former MP seems to think this is somehow a viable strategy shows that people really haven't learnt the lessons from Change UK (who irrc were replaced in every case by members of the Socialist Campaign Group)

I did see that some Scot Nats were getting annoyed at being compared to the NIP; as a lot of people were claiming were that the SNP just somehow appeared when New Labour all went a bit south.

Not quite, Joan Ryan was replaced by Feryal Clark someone very much on the right of the party (she’s in the LFI) and Angela Smith was replaced by a Tory.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Another former Labour MP makes an appearance: Lancaster and Wyre MP from 1997-2005, Hilton Dawson for the North East Party. NEP is much less known online than NIP, but is a lot more locally known.

[Conservatopia]

And another former NE Labour MP is running:

Tony Blair has just announced he is running in Hartlepool as a Tory.

I'm kidding, I'm kidding.  But it is kind of weird to have 3 former MPs running.

[beesley]

I'm kidding, I'm kidding.  But it is kind of weird to have 3 former MPs running.

What's more remarkable is that none of them are actually from the seat or even a neighbouring seat. Indeed, only one is from the same statistical region. I can think of an example where two former MPs ran against the incumbent in a general election (Northampton North, 2015) but I can't possibly think of the last case exactly like this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, Williams has strong ties to the constituency and represented another Teesside constituency even if it doesn't share a boundary, so that would ordinarily count as quite local. Dawson represented a constituency in northern Lancashire, but is actually from the North East - except that he is in no sense local as he is from and based in Northumberland. Walker's former constituency might as well have been in Cornwall.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, Williams has strong ties to the constituency and represented another Teesside constituency even if it doesn't share a boundary, so that would ordinarily count as quite local. Dawson represented a constituency in northern Lancashire, but is actually from the North East - except that he is in no sense local as he is from and based in Northumberland. Walker's former constituency might as well have been in Cornwall.

Walker was a teacher in Stockton for a while, though.

[beesley]

Well, Williams has strong ties to the constituency and represented another Teesside constituency even if it doesn't share a boundary, so that would ordinarily count as quite local. Dawson represented a constituency in northern Lancashire, but is actually from the North East - except that he is in no sense local as he is from and based in Northumberland. Walker's former constituency might as well have been in Cornwall.

Walker was a teacher in Stockton for a while, though.

Oh right - I assumed she was a teacher in Colne Valley. I expected too much!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh right - I assumed she was a teacher in Colne Valley. I expected too much!

She was, but very early in her career she was in Stockton for a while. Not that it matters, much like her political career.

I mean, I'm sorry but 'headteacher who took earlier retirement to become a consultant'...  vomit.

[Conservatopia]

Well, Williams has strong ties to the constituency and represented another Teesside constituency even if it doesn't share a boundary, so that would ordinarily count as quite local. Dawson represented a constituency in northern Lancashire, but is actually from the North East - except that he is in no sense local as he is from and based in Northumberland. Walker's former constituency might as well have been in Cornwall.

I agree - Williams should really be considered 'local' considering he's from the same metropolitan area.  It would be like if I ran for a seat in Bristol despite being from South Glos.

To be honest I've always thought attacks on candidates for not being from their seat is kind of dumb although I am glad we don't take it to the extreme that Americans seem to.

[CumbrianLefty]

Distinct rumblings that not all Tories are happy with their chosen candidate in Hartlepool.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Distinct rumblings that not all Tories are happy with their chosen candidate in Hartlepool.

A curious choice on paper, certainly.

[Blair]

Distinct rumblings that not all Tories are happy with their chosen candidate in Hartlepool.

Makes you wonder how bad the other candidates were; the only warped logic is that they just need an empty vessel but yeah it does seem baffling awful & the type of person who you run in a seat with a Labour majority of 10K+