UK By-elections thread, 2021-
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:39:16 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  UK By-elections thread, 2021-
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 [18] 19 20 21 22 23 ... 125
Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170105 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #425 on: June 17, 2021, 05:45:30 AM »

I’m sure the result being due to a backlash over HS2 and the new planning laws won’t prevent parts of the media trying to crowbar in the old ‘Tories under threat in their heartland due to Brexit and socially liberal internationalist (lol) voters leaving the party’ narrative.

Doubtless we will have claims of rEalIGnMenT... as if British politics were about to become a contest between the Tories and the LibDems, lmao. People always read too much into by-elections. They are honestly rather stupid things.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #426 on: June 17, 2021, 07:27:02 AM »

I agree with all the above, but the signs were there even in their 2019 GE triumph that certain areas long safe for the Tories were less enamoured with Johnson than most.

One is reminded somewhat of the Witney byelection in 2016 - also held at a time when the Tories had high poll ratings and Labour not - and the swing there would be enough to turn this one yellow.

I will still believe a LibDem win if and when I see it, but how such a result will be covered by a media that may be becoming restless with seemingly unending Tory dominance is another interesting factor.

(dominance that they of course had a major part in creating, but lets not go into that now)

Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #427 on: June 17, 2021, 07:48:23 AM »

When will the results come out ?
Logged
TheTide
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,593
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #428 on: June 17, 2021, 08:34:35 AM »

A LD victory would give them the useful reward of reminding a lot of people that they actually still exist.
Logged
rc18
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #429 on: June 17, 2021, 11:04:14 AM »


According to the local news it appears they are counting overnight, so probably in the early hours of the morning.

A LD victory would give them the useful reward of reminding a lot of people that they actually still exist.

What an awful thought.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #430 on: June 17, 2021, 04:18:32 PM »

I’m expecting a narrow Tory win... it will be interesting to see how the Green vote does, as it could easily be high enough to stop the Lib Dem’s from winning
Logged
Fubart Solman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,696
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #431 on: June 17, 2021, 04:45:23 PM »

I’m expecting a narrow Tory win... it will be interesting to see how the Green vote does, as it could easily be high enough to stop the Lib Dem’s from winning

My completely BS guess is that it will be within 3% either way, but I’m tilting Tory.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #432 on: June 17, 2021, 06:34:25 PM »

52.2% turnout, about 2/3s of last GE turnout.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #433 on: June 17, 2021, 07:20:26 PM »

Rumour Mill is a mess.

Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #434 on: June 17, 2021, 07:40:35 PM »


brb gonna make a virgin vs Chad Meme.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #435 on: June 17, 2021, 07:46:20 PM »

Declaration imminent, it seems.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,268
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #436 on: June 17, 2021, 07:53:02 PM »

Declaration imminent, it seems.

Is there anywhere to stream this?
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #437 on: June 17, 2021, 07:53:16 PM »

Green 1,480
Rejoin EU 101
Fleet (Con) 13,489
Green (Lib Dem) 21,517
Breakthrough 197
Freedom Alliance 134
Lab 622
Reform UK 414

LIB DEM GAIN!!!

YES!!!!
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #438 on: June 17, 2021, 07:53:29 PM »

Lib-Dem gain, will update with numbers. Ninja'ed
Logged
bore
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,275
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #439 on: June 17, 2021, 07:57:12 PM »

This is terrible news for Ed Miliband.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,877
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #440 on: June 17, 2021, 07:59:19 PM »


Massive
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #441 on: June 17, 2021, 08:01:40 PM »

lmao

I suppose we've been overdue this sort of classic Liberal by-election upset and, as noted above, there were some excellent local issues to work with. Presumably there will be some frothing and indignation on the government backbenches which may or may not have consequences.
Logged
YL
YorkshireLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,511
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #442 on: June 17, 2021, 08:02:27 PM »

One comment: the betting markets got this very wrong: the Tories were easy favourites until well after polls closed and were as short as 16 to 1 on on the day before polling day.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #443 on: June 17, 2021, 08:11:13 PM »

It would be nice it brainless and unfunny sh!tposting could be kept out of what has traditionally been a high-quality board.
Logged
bore
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,275
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #444 on: June 17, 2021, 08:14:01 PM »

Serious point here: to the extent this result means something it is that it is not consistent with Boris Johnson and the Conservative party actually being popular. They had a lot of supporters in 2019 and have a lot now who would happily ditch them if the opposition parties could make the right noises.
Logged
morgieb
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,624
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #445 on: June 17, 2021, 08:48:41 PM »

Not even close. Ouch.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #446 on: June 17, 2021, 08:50:57 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2021, 11:06:21 AM by afleitch »

MEME BE GONE

Is that the same "LibDem London Mayoral Candidate" who was in reality not merely removed from that position but actually expelled from the party, when her AS remarks were (re)discovered?

Sorry to spoil such a carefully crafted meme with facts etc etc Smiley
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #447 on: June 17, 2021, 08:55:46 PM »

Serious point here: to the extent this result means something it is that it is not consistent with Boris Johnson and the Conservative party actually being popular. They had a lot of supporters in 2019 and have a lot now who would happily ditch them if the opposition parties could make the right noises.

I mean we have known for a while that the Tories are potentially sitting on quicksand in some parts of the south, but presently circumstances need to align for everything to manifest against them. Labour's brand is trash in most of the south and it currently isn't getting better. The party seems unwilling to pursue the successful path of attaching globalist rhetoric and branding to traditional left-wing programs - look less to US and more to Canadian Liberals, German Greens, and Swedish Social Democrats as better examples for how you can win enough voters from both sides of the identity divide. The Lib-Dem Party brand is better in the south, but the National Party is near irrelevant outside of these by-elections when they can focus on local issues like their more successful local parties. Of course the electoral separation between the two, and also now the Greens, make things all that much harder.

Presently the Conservatives can lose these seats in a GE, but it would be more because of their own potentially poor policies that isolate these communities, and less because of affinity with the opposition.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,601
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #448 on: June 17, 2021, 09:09:01 PM »

To put this result in some further perspective - Chesham and Amersham is one of a select group of seats (maybe just half a dozen or so, though of course boundary changes muddy the picture in some cases) which has been over 50% Tory in every GE going back to at least 1979.

(indeed in C & A's case it started in Feb 1974, when the newly created seat first voted)
Logged
World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,249


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #449 on: June 17, 2021, 09:45:23 PM »

lmao

I suppose we've been overdue this sort of classic Liberal by-election upset and, as noted above, there were some excellent local issues to work with. Presumably there will be some frothing and indignation on the government backbenches which may or may not have consequences.

Did it really boil down to "NIMBYism" or is there subtler stuff going on locally in Buckinghamshire as well? I wasn't really following this one until seeing the (hilarious) result.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 13 14 15 16 17 [18] 19 20 21 22 23 ... 125  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.041 seconds with 11 queries.