UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Torrain]

Yeah - low turnout could do some really odd things to this race. Could push Galloway to a disconcerting win.

Really curious where Tory and Lib Dem votes go. They’re pretty volatile - worth anywhere between 30-50% of the electorate depending on the cycle, but they've been completely absent from the conversation.

If we end up in a Belfast South 2015 style split, they could throw this thing one way or another. Shame there's no coordinated third choice in the race...

[afleitch]

Yeah, the narrowness of Galloway's path, is what stuck out from Ben Walker's New Statesman article on Rochdale - his vote total, post-Labour expulsion, has always run under the total Muslim vote share:

It’s not a one-to-one comparison (he seems to pick up some white working class populists too, while losing a portion of the Muslim vote to mainstream parties), but a pretty important benchmark, given the comparison to seats like Bradford West.

The lack of an official Labour candidate or frontbench-led campaign against Galloway does throw out some of the conventional wisdom though.

One criticism of that comparison is GE and by-elections being linked together.

Based on the Bradford West and Batley by-elections his vote share is almost 1:1.

So you could expect 30% if that ratio holds. Possibly more given the clown car and the international situation.

[CumbrianLefty]

But in both those byelections he not just won quite a lot of white "protest" votes but actually went out and campaigned for them - not sure if that has been happening so much here.

[Coldstream]

He’s not exactly tweeting like a man expecting to win either.

[TheTide]

He’s not exactly tweeting like a man expecting to win either.

Mostly it just seems to be retweets. Over the past few hours the only two tweets composed by him are a video of him out and about on the streets and a post regarding alleged Labour corruption. I believe he's strongly criticised returning officers on those occasions where he's won.

Incidentally he created his account in July 2008, well before Twitter became a prominent platform in politics, here or elsewhere. Must be one of the longest running accounts of any notable British political figure.

[YL]

I suspect no-one really has much idea what's going on. Even on turnout election day rumours tend to be rubbish.

[Torrain]

I believe he's strongly criticised returning officers on those occasions where he's won.

I had the BBC 2005 election coverage on as white noise while doing some coding a while back. When Galloway wins, he gets onstage, and launches into a tirade about perceived irregularities, directly attacking the counting staff.

And when he’s interviewed by the BBC later, he spends the entire time crowing about ending Oona King’s career, and how he’s a better representative for black people than she is. He really is an odious little man.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is worth noting that there is no such thing as a solid and monolithic 'Muslim vote' in Britain even if it might be politically useful for some people and organizations (of very different hues!) to pretend otherwise. There was a high degree of consolidation around Labour at the last General Election, but this was the result of a series of unusual factors, none of which are now current, and should not be taken as the norm. Equally, it should be noted that Galloway's successes and relative successes (when they have come) have often involved the skillful manipulation of tensions and divisions within local Muslim electorates to some extent. They are not example of a hive mind at work. Galloway has a surprisingly well-defined core demographic, that is amongst younger Muslims who are less religious and less involved in Muslim communal life than their parents and yet who, paradoxically, are much more likely than their parents to identify first as Muslims. At Bradford West he was able to expand well beyond this base as enough of the elders who control the local biradari networks (kinship groupings, essentially, and the most important unit of social organization amongst British Pakistanis of Mirpuri descent. They do not exist amongst other Muslim ethnicities in Britain, although other forms of machine politics certainly do) were panicked by the prospect of losing political control of the community that they threw their support (and the votes that they control) behind him. At Batley & Spen, where the Muslim community is predominantly Gujarati and thus very different, he was able to appeal to what is a very conservative community by running a vicious homophobic campaign against the Labour candidate (and now MP) which appears to have allowed him to pick up some ex-BNP voters as well, although the exact scale of that will never be clear. It is also worth pointing out, though this really is just for completeness, that a) not all British Muslims are of South Asian descent (and that a lot of those who are not are simply not eligible to vote at all), b) not all British Muslims of South Asian descent live in majority Muslim neighbourhoods (and that those that do not are the least likely to be swayed by internal community politics of any kind), though these points are less important in the Pennine towns than elsewhere.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, a note on turnout issues. There is a widespread view amongst British electoral nerd circles that Muslims are more likely to vote than average. This is incorrect and largely reflects the bias towards analysis of local elections in Britain due to the lack of lower-level data from General Elections. The existence of strong political machines in many majority Muslim neighbourhoods means that turnout is often unusually high in those areas in local elections, often twice (or more) than that would be typical of areas of similar SES but a different population balance. The difference (which is largely drive by postal voting) melts away in General Elections and, on average, turnout in the places in question is generally at the lower end of the scale.

[Coldstream]

I think the election will help to answer a fundamental question about how much the public knows/cares about the ins and outs of political stories.

I’ll also point out that Labour might have disavowed Ali, but that’s consisted of abandoning him not denouncing him & encouraging Labour voters to do something else. I still think the average Labour voter in Rochdale will go in to the ballot box and put the X next to the Labour candidate. Question is if enough stay home/know not to do that that Galloway turning out a few thousand angry people is enough to win.

[YL]

But in both those byelections he not just won quite a lot of white "protest" votes but actually went out and campaigned for them - not sure if that has been happening so much here.

https://twitter.com/bobfrombrockley/status/1763301794250199086

He even has "MAKE ROCHDALE GREAT AGAIN".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That so many of these are finding their way online is suggestive of a fairly crude targeting operation rather than one with a lot of on the ground intelligence available: I suspect a case of just sending the relevant leaflet based on the names on the electoral register. Admittedly, in a place as segregated as Rochdale...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the election will help to answer a fundamental question about how much the public knows/cares about the ins and outs of political stories.

I’ll also point out that Labour might have disavowed Ali, but that’s consisted of abandoning him not denouncing him & encouraging Labour voters to do something else. I still think the average Labour voter in Rochdale will go in to the ballot box and put the X next to the Labour candidate. Question is if enough stay home/know not to do that that Galloway turning out a few thousand angry people is enough to win.

Well, if we're going to be blunt about it, then one big issue, yes, is simply what people presently minded to vote Labour at the GE in about two-thirds of the constituency will end up doing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Where is the best by-election coverage?

[Harlow]

I’d probably be voting for Coleman if I was in this constituency(/country) but it seems like there are no good realistic options here. Dreading the response of uninformed fellow pro-Palestinians who might see Galloway’s win as a positive thing, without knowing what a ghoulish man he is.

[Torrain]

Where is the best by-election coverage?

BBC and Sky have sent people to the count, so they'll run TV coverage, picking up after midnight.

For text, there are live blogs on the BBC, Sky, The Times, Independent and the Manchester Evening News. BBC probably best.

For the most chaotic experience, find a Twitter list of Westminster journalists (most importantly Sam Coates), and watch them jump on every rumour going for the next four hours.

[TheTide]

Mason (BBC) says that "Team Galloway are sounding confident".

[YL]

LBC reporter:

https://twitter.com/HenryRiley1/status/1763328899583537530

[afleitch]

Sunak should dissolve Parliament tomorrow just for a laugh.

[TheTide]

LBC reporter:

https://twitter.com/HenryRiley1/status/1763328899583537530

A further tweet says that Chris Williamson (Galloway's Deputy and another former Labour MP) is going to the count. Usually a sign of a good night for any party when they are getting their biggest guns out. Galloway himself has been known not to turn up to declarations when he hasn't done well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They won't have actually started counting properly yet, for whatever that's worth.

[TheTide]

The above Henry Riley thread now quotes Galloway's campaign manager as saying that they have won.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The above Henry Riley thread now quotes Galloway's campaign manager as saying that they have won.

Team Galloway: Stop the Count

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They won't have actually started counting properly yet, for whatever that's worth.

I do actually think there's a decent chance that he's won comfortably as there's no reason for Labour supporters in a majority of the constituency to turn out and as the usual efforts to get them to do so will not have occurred, the Conservative government is deeply unpopular, the LibDems do not appear to have made any sort of effort (surprisingly), and as Danczuk's personal vote has already been measured and found to be rather low. But there's also a long history of grandiose claims being made early into a count that turn out to be wanting by the morning.

[TheTide]

Riley (LBC) saying that the independent David Tully has done well. Probably means not much more than a saved deposit.