UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Geoffrey Howe]

I think we can agree the Tories losing this would be bigger (much) than Labour losing Hartlepool.

[Geoffrey Howe]

That reads just like what Keir Starmer should be hoping...and what the bien pensants were predicting in 2020.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men. And there's the towns fund which is brazenly pork-barrel politics.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side.


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I see Geoff has joined the orange horde.

Do you disapprove? We only have two other regular O-UK posters.

No it's fine.  As long as nobody encroaches on my monopoly of R-UK I'm hakuna matata.

Can I ask why you are disenchanted with Team Blue?

Well I'm not just disenchanted with the party. I'm partly disenchanted with the ideas - though they are dropping some of them. It seems fairly obvious to me that the policies which were absolutely necessary in the 1980s are not the solutions to today's problems. In that sense, I'm somewhat lost ideologically.

As for the party, well, I suppose it's been some time in the making, but their opposition to the EU I don't much like. More broadly, they don't believe in anything anymore - their sole purpose is to stay in power. Now, they have always been good at that, but there used to be, I think, something undergirding their positions; whether that was a belief in individual merit and the market or a more paternal, Butskellite angle - truly small c conservative. Now they will do whatever.
One of their great appeals for me was a respect for our traditions, and sensible government. The former was disgraced with the prorogation of Parliament and their reprehensible rhetoric towards the judiciary. The latter is, for obvious reasons, not something which Boris embodies. They're plainly incompetent and his Cabinet is just full of yes-men.

I'm very sympathetic to their anti-woke stance, but it seems to me that they're going about it quite badly. The university free speech law is an example (see Danny Finkelstein's article in The Times). But it is all perhaps best epitomised by the voter ID law they want to put through. It is, as David Davis said, an illiberal solution to a non-existent problem. It is the most irritating form of demagogy - making up (or exaggerating) a problem and 'solving' it with a restrictive law - which just so happens to disadvantage voters of the other side


All this said, if Angela Rayner is leader, I'm voting Tory.

I can't disagree with anything you've written Geoff.  However I would argue that maintaining power has been the core ideology of the Tories since the Corn Laws debacle rather than a new thing.  Therefore the Tories will do what is perceived as popular and merely vaguely aligned with conservatism rather than taking what Sir Humphrey would call a "courageous decision".  Of course I would prefer the Tories to go full PiS but that's never going to happen.

Sure, but they have taken very unpopular positions in the name of principle - e.g. 1979-1983. I can't see them doing that any more.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Their statement is self-contradictory:

We were very sorry to learn of Ross Peltier's historic but highly offensive tweets. We are clear that people grow and change and should not be limited by youthful mistakes. But, as a party that champions the rights of LGBTIQA+ people and their support communities, we do not feel it is right for Ross to be the party's candidate for Batley and Spen by-election.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Now, if the Tories gain Batley and Spen...


Plus, can we admire the Labour result? 1.6%; possibly the worst they've ever got in a by-election.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Now, if the Tories gain Batley and Spen...


Plus, can we admire the Labour result? 1.6%; possibly the worst they've ever got in a by-election.

It just barely "beats" their 1.7% in the 1997 Winchester by-election.

Labour were in government then...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Obviously I don't think this is somehow a bad result for Starmer. It's just always nice to see Labour on 1.6% , but if it's at the expense of the Lib Dems on 56%...

[Geoffrey Howe]

I've had it up to here with people calling south Buckinghamshire "progressive." The Guardian recently alluded to it being "bourgeois bohemian."
Somewhere doesn't vote over 50% Tory in 2001 if it's progressive!

[Geoffrey Howe]

My hunch is a good result for the Tories, most likely a gain.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Sadly, there will soon be a by-election in Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Doesn't look interesting. Rock solid Tory majority.

Why are the LibDems so weak in that constituency? "Middle-class outer London suburbia" sounds like LibDem turf.

It's not liberal in the same way that Richmond is. Fairly pro-Brexit, UKIP did quite well back in the day. It's more Essex/Northern Kent than Surrey, and that shows in how it votes.
Of course, it used to be Ted Heath's seat with different boundaries and Labour nearly won his seat in 1966.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Surprised no one has mentioned the Orpington by-election...

Anyway, won't indulge in by-election speculation yet, but will quickly point out that this is a very middle class and rather affluent slice of London and that its differences to places like Richmond have nothing to do with the fact that many middle aged residents can claim working class grandparents: this is England, most of the people even in Richmond over fifty will be able to claim at least one. We need to avoid that sort of thing as it leads to very unhelpful misunderstandings of places. It's different because a different sort of middle class person predominates here: this is the land of the Middle Manager not the Higher Professional.

That's essentially what I mean. It is a slightly nebulous cultural difference, and it is surely unlikely the history of the places has nothing to do with it: it may not be on the same level as France, but local historical factors continue to play an important role in English voting patterns. Perhaps it is worth mentioning that this is the part of London where Shaun Bailey got some of his best performances, whereas Richmond is where Zac Goldsmith got some of his best (local factors, of course, playing a role there too).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Really, it's more a case of Richmond being unusually strong for the Lib Dems than Bexley being unusually weak for them.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I wouldn't underestimate the unhappiness of the base at this point, especially in the South. The extent to which that percolates through the population at large is a different question, and there are indications that it has not so much - certainly not as much as one might expect in such circumstances. I don't think anyone expects anything other than a Conservative hold - Old Bexley and Sidcup does not have the choice pick of demographics and specific local issues for the stars to align as they did in Chesham & Amersham. The main question, as adma says, will be the swing; ultimately this will come down to where we find ourselves the week before polling day and how enthused the respective sides are to turn out. 

[Geoffrey Howe]

A gentle reminder that the Tories did actually go on to win Christchurch in 1997 of all elections...

[Geoffrey Howe]

Of course, this is nothing but a terrible embarrassment for the Party and for Boris. In a way it's worse than Christchurch - at least the Lib Dems were clearly second there.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I’d be fascinated to see how members of the farming community voted; Labour made a big outreach (Keir was the first leader to speak at the NFU conference for a decade) and there’s been a number of rows over their treatment by the Government- not helped by Boris saying ‘let the pigs die’,

I've heard credible second-hand reports and rumours of grumbling and muttering from the farming community in North Shropshire about various issues - material pressures (many of which are Brexit-related), concerns about the government's enthusiasm for 'free trade' deals, irritation that Paterson (who was supposed to be their man) wasn't pulling his weight (which added to anger at what he was actually doing instead...), that kind of thing. The farming community in North Shropshire is dominated by dairying and is overwhelmingly comprised of landowning farmers so is ordinarily extremely Tory (we're probably taking over 90% here), but there are good reasons to believe that there was a very large slump. Probably more still voted Conservative than for the LibDem, but when what is normally an absolute pillar gets wobbly that's really, really bad...

Can you explain the importance of this?