UK By-elections thread, 2021- (user search)
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  UK By-elections thread, 2021- (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170052 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #25 on: July 01, 2021, 10:18:02 PM »





We got images of the ballots. Leadbreaker's (right) pile looks even, maybe a bit smaller than the Tory's in the middle, maybe a bit shorter in stack one. Perspective is deceptive. Another view:






Declaration expected in 20ish minutes.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2021, 10:45:46 PM »

Bundle recount ordered. Probable means a 400-600 majority. Apparently requested by the Tories.

Galloway finally showed up.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2021, 10:53:44 PM »

2nd Bundle check. Full recount possible, but administrators apparently disfavor such a move.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2021, 11:04:08 PM »

Labour apparently requested the second count.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #29 on: July 01, 2021, 11:10:14 PM »

Labour <300 is the number going around on twitter, not sure what the source is. First site to report it was BBC, then Sky, then locals - but I saw it before on rando handles.

Galloway's team's group body language displays disappointment right now inside the building.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: July 01, 2021, 11:24:44 PM »

Declared Results:

Labour: 13296
Conservatives: 12973
Galloway: 8264
LD: 1254

Others: 1908

Lab hold
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #31 on: July 01, 2021, 11:52:49 PM »

I see this is some people's first time experiencing the perennial oddball that is George Galloway.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #32 on: July 04, 2021, 10:06:03 AM »

Reminder that Galloway did this trash when he lost his Bradford seat by over 10K votes. Its not serious, its attention grabbing - which is the goal of his profession.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2022, 01:09:15 PM »

Any idea as to when the by-election will be held?

It can't be held concurrent with the locals...can it?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2022, 11:06:14 AM »

Didn’t I read that the local councils that fall in the Wakefield constituency voted Albour by a very wide margin on Thursday? That should be a good predictor of an easy Labour win here



The real question therefore will be if such a large margin repeats itself. Wakefield in 2019 was more of less even with the national labour-tory margin, Whether the swing back is larger or smaller than the national polling will help answer many questions.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #35 on: May 28, 2022, 08:13:51 AM »

How does Galloway get people to staff his campagin ?

He has a loyal clique of mainly Muslim and Tankie voters, and is then despised by everyone else.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #36 on: June 04, 2022, 12:32:59 PM »



Obvious disclaimer about the accuracy constituency polls. However, lol just more evidence why the Tories already threw the towel.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #37 on: June 06, 2022, 10:52:29 AM »



Strangely enough, another constituency poll of the Wakefield electorate.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #38 on: June 08, 2022, 02:23:32 PM »

Very early muttering about a Reading (East?) by election if Alok Sharma quits to take up a UN climate position.

Doing so would be an FU to the Government as it would be a hard by-election to defend- I didn’t realise how marginal it was even in 2019.

Reading West* and yes it would be another hard hold. I get the suspicion this seat is on borrowed time for the Tories and will be part of a future Labour opposition - like Cardiff North and Canterbury now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #39 on: June 15, 2022, 12:01:18 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2022, 12:18:57 PM by Oryxslayer »

Yeah this smells like strategy, given that both of their previous internal polls for the by-elections they won underestimated their support and seemed designed to focus the electorate/narrative.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #40 on: June 23, 2022, 01:26:42 PM »

Wild unverified rumour time?

Tiverton could be better than expected for the Liberals.

Given all that has happened I wouldn't be surprised if we end up shocked by both margins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #41 on: June 23, 2022, 09:04:39 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2022, 09:21:25 PM by Oryxslayer »

I thought we would have more pictures of stacks of ballots on tables by now Sad

EDIT: Wakefield imminent
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #42 on: June 23, 2022, 09:57:01 PM »

Wakefield Goes Labour by a good deal.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #43 on: June 23, 2022, 10:00:48 PM »

Labour: 13,166 Votes, 47.94%
Conservative: 8,241 Votes, 30%
Akbar: 2,090 Votes, 7.61%
Yorkshire Party: 1,182 Votes, 4.3%
Greens: 587 Votes, 2.14%
Reform: 513 Votes, 1.87%
Lib-Dem: 508 Votes, 1.85%

All Others: 1,179 Votes, 4.29%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #44 on: June 23, 2022, 10:03:03 PM »

Holy f That lib dem vote count.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #45 on: June 23, 2022, 10:08:13 PM »

Tiverton & Honiton

Lib-Dem: 22,563 Votes, 52.94%.
Conservative: 16,393 Votes, 38.47%
Labour: 1,562 Votes, 3.67%
Green: 1,064 Votes, 2.5%

All Others: 1,035 Votes, 2.43%
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: June 24, 2022, 05:43:47 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 07:22:17 PM by Oryxslayer »

I mean the perpetual issue for the Lib-Dems is that they are three local parties in a trench coat. A few areas have actual base Lib-Dems: areas that once would be called too wealthy for Labour, too reformist for the Tories, but I suspect if the Lib-Dems vanished these areas would now vote Labour. The remainder of their strongholds are places where the local Lib-Dem brand is strong, even though the national one is weak. Sometimes it is precisely because the national brand is weak, and the Lib-Dems are the most organized local opposition to unquestioned local control by whichever of the larger parties happens to consider said region safe turf.

Which is one main reason why the Lib-Dems can always attach rocket boosters to their campaigns during by-elections but run out of steam in a general. By-elections allow the candidate to align with the local brand, and run against an unpopular government action without needing to propose solutions. Because by-elections are likely to occur in safe seats statistically, it will be the Lib-Dems who take up the opposition mantle most often. General Elections require the Lib-Dems to propose policy and run against other large platforms, which weaken their local advantages.

As noted up-thread with the comparison to Christchurch, the Lib-Dems are likely to loose a lot of the turf they gained in these by-elections. We even have the example of 2019 to show that a bunch of former conservative incumbents couldn't win their seats when the Tory brand is at high tide. It does however suggest that the Lib-Dems could make sizable gains in more realistic targets like say Hazel Grove, Cheltenham, Woking, and Winchester - now that the Tory brand is receding.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #47 on: July 04, 2022, 11:02:19 AM »

But there has been a consistent refusal to accept this from senior people in the Conservative Party. It hasn't even entirely gone away post-Wakefield.
Just today, the Conservative supporting press are talking about Boris’ great (current) appeal and how this cannot he replicated by any potential leadership challengers. There seems to be a complete unwillingness among large sections of the commentariat to accept that not only was Boris never an electoral juggernaut during his leadership to begin with, but also that his popularity has crashed and he is now electoral poison to basically anybody who isn’t a dyed in the wool Conservative supporter. What’s the event that will make them realise he’s a liability, because they’re already well behind in the polls and losing by-elections on big swings, including now to Labour?

Pet theory time: With Brexit 'done' the elite (Etonian?) Conservative machine has no idea how to appeal to the electorates in the many first-time seats gained in 2019. Boris is therefore the only thing they therefore have to supposedly put forward - especially since many of the intake personally owe their jobs to his 2019 decisions - so it just comes off as pathetic.

This the type of parliamentary rot sets in once a government has run its course and has no idea how to maintain its coalition, and the only way to cure it is to lose and electorally purge the deadwood and outdated thinkers. Cause much of the seats the Tories won in 2019 will probably be marginals for a while, and there are ways the Tories can appeal to them post-Brexit, but Boris ain't it and he is now part of the deadwood. Losing a bunch of seats for the first time in the home counties to the Lib-Dems, like YouGov suggest, will certainly hammer the point home.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #48 on: August 07, 2022, 07:26:09 AM »
« Edited: August 07, 2022, 08:33:03 AM by Oryxslayer »

So you can knock the Labour score in a Westminster context up by a point or two, to take account of the absence in the Harrogate wards. That makes it a bit more interesting still, though I agree Tories are still favourites barring things getting really bad really quickly for the new PM.

(and yes, that could actually happen)

Something else to note about this seat, which might lead to Labour interest, is that the currently proposed lines from that boundary commission pretty radically change this seat. So getting an incumbent in there won't be the worst thing. The northern 'arm' towards Harrogate is lost and instead it reaches into West Yorkshire. This change in territory swapped the name back to Selby - since the new seat kinda lacks a secondary identity - and notionally moves about 4.5-5% of the vote from the Tories to Labour. When looking at the 2022 locals the seat might be in contention, but Labour did have a environment in North Yorkshire that was even better than the national one.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #49 on: June 09, 2023, 10:18:27 AM »


Is there any serious chance of Mid-Bedfordshire flipping even with the environment? The Bedford region is kinda sorted politically sorted by density, which means the Bedford seat contains most of the non-Tory voters in the region. The opposition is divided, and they both have loyal bases of support given the local election results. And those results didn't point towards dramatic flips, just a lot of independents.
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