UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Lord Halifax]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" maybe isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)

the interesting aspect is that they reversed the historical pattern and became a party that did better with gene pool (Irish) Catholics than Protestants, that's fairly unique for a nationalist party. It's basically the equivalent of if Catalan nationalists hypothetically did better among descendants of Andalusian migrants than among Catalan speakers.

[JimJamUK]

If it remains a three horse race then the Tories need to be on at least 30% or thereabouts, which is about where they've been in several recent by-elections in seats they've been defending, but unless they get a bit more than that they would need a very even split of the opposition vote between Labour and the Lib Dems.  If they got 38%, which is what they got in Tiverton & Honiton, then they'd have a decent chance.

If things remain as they are, I’d expect them to be on the lower end of that range. The cause of the by-election (and that it took so long) will hurt the Tories, as will the fact both opposition parties will be campaigning hard rather than just 1.

[YL]

If it remains a three horse race then the Tories need to be on at least 30% or thereabouts, which is about where they've been in several recent by-elections in seats they've been defending, but unless they get a bit more than that they would need a very even split of the opposition vote between Labour and the Lib Dems.  If they got 38%, which is what they got in Tiverton & Honiton, then they'd have a decent chance.

If things remain as they are, I’d expect them to be on the lower end of that range. The cause of the by-election (and that it took so long) will hurt the Tories, as will the fact both opposition parties will be campaigning hard rather than just 1.

That's my feeling too, which would suggest that they're not very likely to win unless there's a very close three-way result.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An extra issue here is that the circumstances are dire, and there's no obvious way to get around that.

[Harry Hayfield]

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

[Blair]

Already seeing some very funny coverage saying if the vote is split between labour and the liberals then the Tories will be very happy and it will be a great victory- but how does them winning a 35% vote share against say 30% for labour and 28% for the liberals show they’re doing well?

The horse race coverage for by elections has gotten very bad- Tim Farron made a very good point that the recent Uxbridge one was actually similar to the liberals winning Eastleigh and well we know what happened to the liberals in 2015.

This is not a target seat for either party either.

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

Not sure I agree; it’s certainly a seat with a lot of commuters in it and based around towns where people commute to either MK, Bedford or London but it’s not too similar to the commuter belt seats like Reading- tbh patterns of work and migration have changed so much since 2019 it’s going to be hard to tell with these things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This ought to be a completely bomb-proof constituency against any other party as it just doesn't have any obvious kernel for another party to build a challenge around; the sort of place that you'd win easily even if there was a particularly nasty swing locally in a very bad General Election. In practice it should be safer than quite a few constituencies won in 2019 with larger majorities and shares of the vote. Of course once upon a time the area was strong territory for the Liberal Party, but in this case 'once upon a time' means 'before the 1950s'.

[Blair]

This ought to be a completely bomb-proof constituency against any other party as it just doesn't have any obvious kernel for another party to build a challenge around; the sort of place that you'd win easily even if there was a particularly nasty swing locally in a very bad General Election. In practice it should be safer than quite a few constituencies won in 2019 with larger majorities and shares of the vote. Of course once upon a time the area was strong territory for the Liberal Party, but in this case 'once upon a time' means 'before the 1950s'.

Yeah it lacks any largish town or area where labour have some sort of base and the sort of areas that labour did well in the locals aren’t actually in this seat but the neighbouring MK ones.

Equally as much as I see it called a rural seat it’s not exactly one where there would be high levels of  NFU activity…

[YL]

Mid Bedfordshire is finally vacant:

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1696449373775749299

"The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Nadine Vanessa Dorries to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern."

[Coldstream]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" maybe isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)

the interesting aspect is that they reversed the historical pattern and became a party that did better with gene pool (Irish) Catholics than Protestants, that's fairly unique for a nationalist party. It's basically the equivalent of if Catalan nationalists hypothetically did better among descendants of Andalusian migrants than among Catalan speakers.

Agree with Halifax that this is an important trend to note.

But can it not be explained fairly simply? The SNP moved away from their traditional tartan Tory approach, wearing kilts and being exclusively “Scottish” (which put off many Irish Catholics historically- Monklands being an obvious example) and moved to Scottish Nationalism being about rejecting England/Westminster - and adopted a less exclusive concept of what being “Scottish” was, which therefore appealed more to Irish catholics - but also other ethnic minorities who’d historically voted Labour.

I mean, i’m as an anti-SNP as they come, but no one can accuse them of being blood & soil nationalists - or even particularly Scottish chauvinists - so it’s not that surprising that they attract a more diverse pool of voters than other nationalist parties.

Also CL has a point - the SNP won everywhere & every group pretty much in 2015 - so whilst there’s individual explanations for why they improved across the board, we won’t know until the next GE how solid their support is.

[Torrain]

"The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Nadine Vanessa Dorries to be Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern."

Huh - Dorries ended up being the one to remove the previous Steward and Bailiff (one Boris Johnson), from his final government-appointed position. Sinecure or not, there’s a tinge of irony to the whole affair.

[YL]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" maybe isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)

the interesting aspect is that they reversed the historical pattern and became a party that did better with gene pool (Irish) Catholics than Protestants, that's fairly unique for a nationalist party. It's basically the equivalent of if Catalan nationalists hypothetically did better among descendants of Andalusian migrants than among Catalan speakers.

Agree with Halifax that this is an important trend to note.

But can it not be explained fairly simply? The SNP moved away from their traditional tartan Tory approach, wearing kilts and being exclusively “Scottish” (which put off many Irish Catholics historically- Monklands being an obvious example) and moved to Scottish Nationalism being about rejecting England/Westminster - and adopted a less exclusive concept of what being “Scottish” was, which therefore appealed more to Irish catholics - but also other ethnic minorities who’d historically voted Labour.

I mean, i’m as an anti-SNP as they come, but no one can accuse them of being blood & soil nationalists - or even particularly Scottish chauvinists - so it’s not that surprising that they attract a more diverse pool of voters than other nationalist parties.

Also CL has a point - the SNP won everywhere & every group pretty much in 2015 - so whilst there’s individual explanations for why they improved across the board, we won’t know until the next GE how solid their support is.

I'm sure I remember seeing fairly clear evidence that Catholics had voted more strongly for independence than Scotland did as a whole.

[Blair]

I assume both by elections will be on the same day now- oh the discourse machine will have fun.

[YL]

I had to look twice to confirm that this was a Labour leaflet.

https://twitter.com/ju_owens/status/1696501754018287649

(In case the image is invisible or disappears, it features a bar chart based on the Opinium poll with some of the classic features: a distorted scale, and the good old "can't win here", but the last of those is on an arrow pointing at the Lib Dem bar.)

[YL]

I assume both by elections will be on the same day now

Probably, though as the writs are being moved by different parties there's no reason to think that they'll co-ordinate.

I think the SNP have already indicated that they will move the writ for R&HW as soon as Parliament returns from recess, which means next Monday; if they do, then the by-election will be on Thursday 5 October.  My guess is that the Tories will move the writ for Mid Beds then as well and so they'll be on the same day -- unnecessary delays of by-elections seem to be out of fashion -- but if the Tories prefer 12 October for some reason they can delay moving the writ by a few days.

[Blair]

Although I read that conference season might lead Mid Beds to being delayed a few weeks.

I’m v unsure how Nadine unpopularity will impact the seat- I actually vaguely know someone in the seat who is voting Tory after years of not being able to because they didn’t like her!

[CumbrianLefty]

Although I read that conference season might lead Mid Beds to being delayed a few weeks.

I’m v unsure how Nadine unpopularity will impact the seat- I actually vaguely know someone in the seat who is voting Tory after years of not being able to because they didn’t like her!

I do suspect that is a classic example of anecdote not equalling data, though

[Blair]

Although I read that conference season might lead Mid Beds to being delayed a few weeks.

I’m v unsure how Nadine unpopularity will impact the seat- I actually vaguely know someone in the seat who is voting Tory after years of not being able to because they didn’t like her!

I do suspect that is a classic example of anecdote not equalling data, though

Ha if a single focus group gets written up in the Times I can justify it.

I was thinking of Al’s point re Uxbridge having a negative personal vote for Boris and wondered if it would be the same!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Equally as much as I see it called a rural seat it’s not exactly one where there would be high levels of  NFU activity…

It is a substantially less rural constituency than Selby & Ainsty.

[CumbrianLefty]

Equally as much as I see it called a rural seat it’s not exactly one where there would be high levels of  NFU activity…

It is a substantially less rural constituency than Selby & Ainsty.

But also a less (traditionally) industrial one, so it sort of balances out perhaps.

[afleitch]

FWIW, Labour have not had the best few weeks in Scotland in terms of press coverage. In that it's been (for once) actively critical; today with drug law and taxation. In part because of very rapidly paced u-turns on their 2021 manifesto commitments or still wet policy pronouncements. The Daily Record; effectively its masthead, have taken the gloves off.

It's not new; much of this criticism was bouncing around outside of mainstream media and indeed, from Labour activists. It's been heard on the ground where it counts too.

https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1696878708693348467

[ObserverIE]

Well, its maybe interesting if it is maintained - and the coming GE could tell us a bit about that.

("SNP wins most Catholics when it is winning almost everywhere" maybe isn't that earth shattering - sorry if this appears a little cynical)

the interesting aspect is that they reversed the historical pattern and became a party that did better with gene pool (Irish) Catholics than Protestants, that's fairly unique for a nationalist party. It's basically the equivalent of if Catalan nationalists hypothetically did better among descendants of Andalusian migrants than among Catalan speakers.

Agree with Halifax that this is an important trend to note.

But can it not be explained fairly simply? The SNP moved away from their traditional tartan Tory approach, wearing kilts and being exclusively “Scottish” (which put off many Irish Catholics historically- Monklands being an obvious example) and moved to Scottish Nationalism being about rejecting England/Westminster - and adopted a less exclusive concept of what being “Scottish” was, which therefore appealed more to Irish catholics - but also other ethnic minorities who’d historically voted Labour.

I mean, i’m as an anti-SNP as they come, but no one can accuse them of being blood & soil nationalists - or even particularly Scottish chauvinists - so it’s not that surprising that they attract a more diverse pool of voters than other nationalist parties.

Also CL has a point - the SNP won everywhere & every group pretty much in 2015 - so whilst there’s individual explanations for why they improved across the board, we won’t know until the next GE how solid their support is.

I'm sure I remember seeing fairly clear evidence that Catholics had voted more strongly for independence than Scotland did as a whole.

Scottish Catholics might not have been keen on the old-style SNP (and I can remember the focus on Helen Liddell's maiden name being Reilly in the Monklands East by-election) but they were even less keen on Scottish Labour getting entangled in a Union Jack-bedecked No campaign. There isn't really an equivalent of the Old Firm in England to keep the pot boiling and antagonize the descendants of Irish immigrants (yes, there are echoes in Liverpool but they're faint and growing ever fainter).

[EastAnglianLefty]

Equally as much as I see it called a rural seat it’s not exactly one where there would be high levels of  NFU activity…

It is a substantially less rural constituency than Selby & Ainsty.

But also a less (traditionally) industrial one, so it sort of balances out perhaps.

The historic industry was brickworks, which I would call a fairly traditional one, if not one that had the same electoral impact as mining or heavy industry.

[robocop]

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

I don't think all of those provide a barometer for this and I am based in the Chilterns area anyways.

Labour during the Michael Foot years were hopeless and the Beaconsfield by-election (where a certain grinning cottager stood for Labour) was when the Falklands War was reaching its conclusion and Maggie Thatcher's approval and support and government approval did go up. The current government has nothing of the sort to cling on to now to claim popularity.

[afleitch]

The actual difference between Catholics and Protestants in Monklands was always over exaggerated. In the 2011 Census, 50% were Catholic in Coatbridge; the highest in the central belt, with 35% in Airdrie. Airdrie is also one of the most Catholic towns in Scotland.

The real issue was traditional Labour nepotism; the enquiry did find differentiations in spending and recruitment between the two towns, which was in part linked to insane amounts of Labour councillors families being recruited into admin bodies, which was linked to the legacy of Coatbridge Burgh effectively swallowing Airdrie rather than a genuine merger in the 70's.