UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1667255627092054040
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1667259420030521354
It's about to get ugly for the Tories, the Boris Brigade is out for revenge!

[Blair]

Not sure what it achieves; makes it a huge target for the Lib Dems, he might lose and even then the privileges committee could just do another report or apply this one again.

Can they do that if he's been re-elected since the report?

I think that if Dorries's resignation really was to set him up to come straight back in Mid Beds it's a huge risk and he could easily lose, especially as we now have two by-elections, one for Labour to focus on and one for the Lib Dems.

It’s an unknown but the committee have sanctioned ex MPs who tried to quit before sanction but god knows with all this

[CumbrianLefty]

Reported that the committee's findings on Johnson will still be published, which might put the kibosh on him standing anywhere before the next GE at least.

[Logical]

Political equivalent of catching a grenade and throwing it to your own side.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's handling of all this definitely adds to the "just not very good at politics" vibe around him.

[afleitch]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.

Good point - so it’ll probably be well in to the autumn before we actually get a date.

Worth noting that the recall depends on voters caring enough to sign it. Ferrier has a reputation as a good constituency, and constituency based MP, which in part contributed to her behaviour which led to her suspension.

Its not merely a paper exercise.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

LOL Boris Johnson.

LOL Nigel Adams.

[afleitch]

MOAR!

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Thinking in fantastical terms, what number would it have to get to in order to become so farcical that a general election would have to be called? Not quite 'have to be', but a point at which the pressure would be immense.

[afleitch]

Thinking in fantastical terms, what number would it have to get to in order to become so farcical that a general election would have to be called? Not quite 'have to be', but a point at which the pressure would be immense.

The Tory majority is 64, down from 80. This is before factoring in the recent resignations.

If thirtyish Tory MPs resigned for example, or even twenty would expect the government to go to a GE under which they'd have some more favourable conditions to retain them rather than carry on with a small to non majority

Having said that, all parties would struggle with a mass by-election day.

The last time this happened was in Northern Ireland in 1986 for very different reasons.

[Blair]

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?

[JimJamUK]

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?

Selby and Ainsty - Rural North Yorkshire, to the east of Leeds. The Conservatives will have won everything in 2019, but in the forthcoming by-election Labour will do best in Selby itself along with a few other forming mining villages nearby and on the western border of the constituency. Against that, the Tories will still do well in the wealthy rural parts of the constituency, especially in the Ainsty area which is very North Yorkshire.

Mid Bedfordshire - Rural Bedfordshire, in-between Bedford and Luton. Hard to say really, the Lib Dems are competitive in the wards near Bedford, but it’s otherwise really quite a homogenous constituency consisting of mostly well off villages and the Tories will have been far ahead at the last general election everywhere.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Outer west London. Labour are strongest in Yiewsley and Uxbridge itself (more working class and a modest number of students), Hillingdon is comfortably Conservative (but pretty representative so will probably be Labour at the by-election), while southern Ruislip is the most Conservative part (more middle class and noticeably whiter).

[Oryxslayer]

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?

Selby and Ainsty - The Conservatives will have won everything in 2019, but in the forthcoming by-election Labour will do best in Selby itself along with a few other forming mining villages nearby and on the western border of the constituency. Against that, the Tories will still do well in the wealthy rural parts of the constituency, especially in the Ainsty area which is very North Yorkshire.

Mid Bedfordshire - Hard to say really. Labour did well in a couple of wards bordering Hitchin while the Lib Dems are competitive in the wards near Bedford, but it’s otherwise really quite a homogenous constituency consisting of mostly well off villages and the Tories will have been far ahead at the last general election everywhere.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour are strongest in Yiewsley and Uxbridge itself (more working class and a modest number of students), Hillingdon is comfortably Conservative (but pretty representative so will probably be Labour at the by-election), while southern Ruislip is the most Conservative part (more middle class and noticeably whiter).

One thing to add is at least under the currently proposed boundary changes the Selby seat is going to get comparatively better for Labour through getting sucked in closer to Leeds. Obviously still a Tory seat in a national nailbiter, but straight two-party swings using current polling would see the new seat flip whereas the old seat would hold. So Labour have an incentive to push hard in that seat, even if picking it up won't be as easy as Uxbridge.

[mileslunn]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

[MaxQue]

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?

Selby and Ainsty - The Conservatives will have won everything in 2019, but in the forthcoming by-election Labour will do best in Selby itself along with a few other forming mining villages nearby and on the western border of the constituency. Against that, the Tories will still do well in the wealthy rural parts of the constituency, especially in the Ainsty area which is very North Yorkshire.

Mid Bedfordshire - Hard to say really. Labour did well in a couple of wards bordering Hitchin while the Lib Dems are competitive in the wards near Bedford, but it’s otherwise really quite a homogenous constituency consisting of mostly well off villages and the Tories will have been far ahead at the last general election everywhere.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Labour are strongest in Yiewsley and Uxbridge itself (more working class and a modest number of students), Hillingdon is comfortably Conservative (but pretty representative so will probably be Labour at the by-election), while southern Ruislip is the most Conservative part (more middle class and noticeably whiter).

One thing to add is at least under the currently proposed boundary changes the Selby seat is going to get comparatively better for Labour through getting sucked in closer to Leeds. Obviously still a Tory seat in a national nailbiter, but straight two-party swings using current polling would see the new seat flip whereas the old seat would hold. So Labour have an incentive to push hard in that seat, even if picking it up won't be as easy as Uxbridge.

And for the two other seats:

Mid Bedfordshire: Lose some villages west of Bedford and the parts near Hitchin. Majority probably goes down because of reduced population, but is actually safer % wise.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Lose some of Ruislip, picks up Harefield (which is actually a village surronded by fields and woods) in the extreme north west of London. That's obviously more Conservative than Ruislip, so that's good for them.

[adma]

It might be worth noting that Mid Beds was Lib Dems 2nd and a bit under 1/4 of the vote in their '05/'10 highwater mark elections--though yeah, the '19 figure looks at least on the surface like a bridge-too-far benchmark (except that North Shropshire marked an even bolder leap-from-third than Mid Beds would be).  But somehow, the Lib Dems seem like an ideal default catchbasin for that local-independent streak, whatever their degree of actual local organization...

[YL]

Can someone smarter than me do an idiots guide re the political geography of each seat?

Selby and Ainsty - Rural North Yorkshire, to the east of Leeds. The Conservatives will have won everything in 2019, but in the forthcoming by-election Labour will do best in Selby itself along with a few other forming mining villages nearby and on the western border of the constituency. Against that, the Tories will still do well in the wealthy rural parts of the constituency, especially in the Ainsty area which is very North Yorkshire.

Mid Bedfordshire - Rural Bedfordshire, in-between Bedford and Luton. Hard to say really, the Lib Dems are competitive in the wards near Bedford, but it’s otherwise really quite a homogenous constituency consisting of mostly well off villages and the Tories will have been far ahead at the last general election everywhere.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Outer west London. Labour are strongest in Yiewsley and Uxbridge itself (more working class and a modest number of students), Hillingdon is comfortably Conservative (but pretty representative so will probably be Labour at the by-election), while southern Ruislip is the most Conservative part (more middle class and noticeably whiter).

It may be very hard to get the student vote out given the timing in the summer vacation.  Even now will be too late to go around trying to get the students to get postal votes.

Mid Bedfordshire also contains a university, but it's the rather unusual Cranfield and its student population is not high; there are a couple of output areas, covering the campus, right on the border with Milton Keynes which are heavily student, but there's no overspill beyond that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

[MillennialModerate]

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

Lord Ashcroft faking polls to push a narrative? Who could’ve seen that coming from the esteemed tax cheat. A man who called the PM a pig fcker because he was denied a job in the Foreign Office? Lying?

[icc]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

Lord Ashcroft faking polls to push a narrative? Who could’ve seen that coming from the esteemed tax cheat. A man who called the PM a pig er because he was denied a job in the Foreign Office? Lying?

In fairness I don’t think this is a ‘fake’ poll. Ashcroft’s polling has always been non-partisan - it’s just terrible. His polls are often very wrong but not in a consistent direction.

[Continential]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

Lord Ashcroft faking polls to push a narrative? Who could’ve seen that coming from the esteemed tax cheat. A man who called the PM a pig er because he was denied a job in the Foreign Office? Lying?

In fairness I don’t think this is a ‘fake’ poll. Ashcroft’s polling has always been non-partisan - it’s just terrible. His polls are often very wrong but not in a consistent direction.

Either way there is no world where 18-29 voters in Uxbridge vote for the Tories in 2023 so it is fake/wrong. 

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Can someone give a Lean Likely Tossup type analysis of the By elections and when will they be?

After some quick research it seems like the 3 are

Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Safe CONSERVATIVE (likely Swing to LAB)
Lean CONSERVATIVE (SAFE Swing to LAB)

I would lean towards telling you to piss off from this thread.

[JimJamUK]

Lib Dems gonna Lib Dem.

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1667988259278815233?s=61&t=I1DE8_c...