UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[EastAnglianLefty]

Crick rather than Crichton - sometimes fiction does turn up on his Twitter feed, but only because his fact-checking is poor enough that he has fallen for obviously made-up names of potential candidates, such as the rumoured Labour candidate for Worcester 'Amon Gus'.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Crick rather than Crichton - sometimes fiction does turn up on his Twitter feed, but only because his fact-checking is poor enough that he has fallen for obviously made-up names of potential candidates, such as the rumoured Labour candidate for Worcester 'Amon Gus'.

Lol.
Sounds like a really funny prank.
An imposter of a potential Labour candidate...

[Blair]

Crick rather than Crichton - sometimes fiction does turn up on his Twitter feed, but only because his fact-checking is poor enough that he has fallen for obviously made-up names of potential candidates, such as the rumoured Labour candidate for Worcester 'Amon Gus'.

Think SP confirmed it at the think tank report launch or something similar: if he was wise he would not fight a by election as iirc he’s not even vaguely local (although tbh that didn’t stop them before!) and it’s said above it would bring a high focus on him.

I am though doubting these by elections will even happen; been rumoured for nearly what 8-9 months now and there’s clearly wrangling over the rules. I know nothing but the idea of being able to defer a peerage while you clock out your parliamentary term seemed very bad and should be stopped on the basis every party would then do it for retiring MPs. And ofc it breaks the historic tradition of giving an old hand a peerage to create a tactical by election…

[CumbrianLefty]

The rumour I have heard is that Sunak might try to kibosh BoJo's resignation list entirely, though that would both require him to show rather more mettle than he has normally displayed so far as PM - and could set an unwelcome precedent for whenever he might desire his own list.

[Torrain]

Ferrier suspended - over to the recall petition…

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1666053588043419648

[Coldstream]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

[MaxQue]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.

[Coldstream]

With the recall petition closing July 31st it could be a really weird time to have a by-election - august or early September pre-conferences.

Recall elections can't be called during recess, so it would be later.

Good point - so it’ll probably be well in to the autumn before we actually get a date.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

[Oryxslayer]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

Is there any serious chance of Mid-Bedfordshire flipping even with the environment? The Bedford region is kinda sorted politically sorted by density, which means the Bedford seat contains most of the non-Tory voters in the region. The opposition is divided, and they both have loyal bases of support given the local election results. And those results didn't point towards dramatic flips, just a lot of independents.

[Torrain]

Huge majority for the Conservatives (24.6k).

But - after Tiverton and Honiton (previous majority of 24.2k), North Shropshire (previous majority of 22.9k), and Chesham and Amersham (previous majority of 16.2k) - I think there's a chance...

In Tiverton, we saw a fairly divided opposition, with Labour in second place. The dynamics of these rural by-elections do favour the Lib Dems setting it up as a two-way fight, if they're given a clear run.

[afleitch]

Labour would need a swing bigger than it's recently achieved in order to win. The Lib Dems need a swing in the range that it has achieved, in order to win from 3rd. Provided Labour don't advance.

It's worth noting that the three by election wins for the Lib Dems happened in seats that recorded an increase in their share, swung against the government against the national trend or both in 2019. This gave them some headwind.

This seat is similar. Even with the 2019 swing, it's clear that Dorries built up a personal vote too.

53-47 Leave.

[YL]

Central Bedfordshire council (which doesn't cover all of the constituency) had a weird result last month where the Tories lost a lot of seats, but most of them were to Independents.

It's not immediately clear what to make of that, but it might suggest that the Lib Dem organisation is surprisingly poor given that the seat has been on by-election watch for nearly a year.

[JimJamUK]

Recall petition in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will see 7 signing sites, which is quite a large number for such an urban constituency. Will help it reach the 10% threshold needed to trigger a by-election.

[YL]

The SNP have selected Katy Loudon, councillor for Cambuslang East on South Lanarkshire council (in the constituency) as their candidate for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

[Oryxslayer]

Johnson has resigned. If Labour fail to flip Uxbridge something unusual will need to have happened.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL Nadine Dorries.

LOL Boris Johnson.

[JimJamUK]

LOL Boris Johnson.

BUT… Bring Back Boris?!?!

[Oryxslayer]

LOL Boris Johnson.

BUT… Bring Back Boris?!?!

Boris defenders will say this move is designed to show just how weak Sunak is right now since the seat is all but going to fall to Labour. Can't say I agree with them but...

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

At the moment there is some (probably baseless) speculation that he will contest Mid Beds. In his statement he does say that he's leaving Parliament "at least for now".

[JimJamUK]

At the moment there is some (probably baseless) speculation that he will contest Mid Beds. In his statement he does say that he's leaving Parliament "at least for now".

I feel like there’s a non-negligible possibility he contests the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election to ‘prove’ his popularity.

[Blair]

Not sure what it achieves; makes it a huge target for the Lib Dems, he might lose and even then the privileges committee could just do another report or apply this one again.

[afleitch]

The SNP have selected Katy Loudon, councillor for Cambuslang East on South Lanarkshire council (in the constituency) as their candidate for Rutherglen & Hamilton West.

Good choice!

[YL]

Not sure what it achieves; makes it a huge target for the Lib Dems, he might lose and even then the privileges committee could just do another report or apply this one again.

Can they do that if he's been re-elected since the report?

I think that if Dorries's resignation really was to set him up to come straight back in Mid Beds it's a huge risk and he could easily lose, especially as we now have two by-elections, one for Labour to focus on and one for the Lib Dems.

[MABA 2020]

Johnson has resigned. If Labour fail to flip Uxbridge something unusual will need to have happened.

Oh wow okay didn't expect that one