UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

The Bedfordshire seat would not be a fun one to campaign in- iirc it’s very large and doesn’t really have a centre.

The Tories recently won the mayoral race there but that mostly seemed to be thanks to it being FPTP.

[Torrain]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

[JimJamUK]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

[WD]

A Reading West-by election is more or less handing Labour a seat on a silver platter. Hilarious.

[YL]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

The boundary changes are a factor there too, not because the new Mid Beds looks winnable for Labour but because a small bit of the old one goes into the new cross-county Hitchin constituency, which might be.  So Labour may want to put some effort in in that bit.

Meanwhile Reading West is in some ways the opposite situation to Selby & Ainsty: the current seat should be an easy gain in a by-election but the boundary changes take Labour's best bits out and replace them with some very rich and usually Tory (though some of it voted Lib Dem or Green earlier this month) Berkshire countryside (and rename it "Mid Berkshire", not that it's in the middle of the county or anything) which makes it a real long shot.  So if Labour win a by-election there the MP may not be an MP for very long.

[Wiswylfen]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

The boundary changes are a factor there too, not because the new Mid Beds looks winnable for Labour but because a small bit of the old one goes into the new cross-county Hitchin constituency, which might be.  So Labour may want to put some effort in in that bit.

Meanwhile Reading West is in some ways the opposite situation to Selby & Ainsty: the current seat should be an easy gain in a by-election but the boundary changes take Labour's best bits out and replace them with some very rich and usually Tory (though some of it voted Lib Dem or Green earlier this month) Berkshire countryside (and rename it "Mid Berkshire", not that it's in the middle of the county or anything) which makes it a real long shot.  So if Labour win a by-election there the MP may not be an MP for very long.

In current conditions I think an incumbent elected at a by-election would stand a good chance of holding it at the next GE.

[Coldstream]

Whats the calculus on who should challenge in Bedfordshire?

It seems to flip back and forth between Labour and the Lib Dems - presumably Starmer would leave it to Davey, and focus on the other two, especially given what an uphill fight it would be?

If the Lib Dems want to fight it, I imagine Labour will leave them be. The only way Labour are winning that is if the Lib Dems take a chunk out of the Tory vote, in which case they’re almost certainly taking a chunk out of Labour’s vote as well. Better to focus resources and expectations management on Reading West/Selby and Ainsty.

The boundary changes are a factor there too, not because the new Mid Beds looks winnable for Labour but because a small bit of the old one goes into the new cross-county Hitchin constituency, which might be.  So Labour may want to put some effort in in that bit.

Meanwhile Reading West is in some ways the opposite situation to Selby & Ainsty: the current seat should be an easy gain in a by-election but the boundary changes take Labour's best bits out and replace them with some very rich and usually Tory (though some of it voted Lib Dem or Green earlier this month) Berkshire countryside (and rename it "Mid Berkshire", not that it's in the middle of the county or anything) which makes it a real long shot.  So if Labour win a by-election there the MP may not be an MP for very long.

The (presumed) new Labour MP for Reading West may decide to seek selection in the new Reading seat - I’m fairly certain Matt Rodda hasn’t been reselected via trigger given that the constituency is changing so much.

[YL]

The (presumed) new Labour MP for Reading West may decide to seek selection in the new Reading seat - I’m fairly certain Matt Rodda hasn’t been reselected via trigger given that the constituency is changing so much.

Labour have been doing reselections on the old boundaries, and it seems that he has been reselected for the existing Reading East.  Over two thirds of the new Reading comes from there, so I imagine he'll get that by default.

There's also the new Earley & Woodley, which should be a Labour target and for which they haven't selected a candidate yet.  But that only contains one ward from the existing Reading West.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/status/1660591039747440643

[CumbrianLefty]

Recall petition is surely a formality, by-election in September is possible.

[Torrain]

Yeah - both Labour and SNP have endorsed a recall (and subsequent by-election), so collecting signatures should be one of the easiest parts of the process.

[afleitch]

Yeah - both Labour and SNP have endorsed a recall (and subsequent by-election), so collecting signatures should be one of the easiest parts of the process.

In part because it's a good by-election to fight (and even lose) for both parties. It's a dry run at what is likely to be the GE battlefield. Even under late 2021 political conditions I'd have this down as a 60-40 chance of Labour gain with the only difficulty being the 'hard sponginess' of the Tory vote and little else to squeeze other than direct switchers. At the moment, it should be more of a Labour cert...but there are some local issues and potential candidate issues that could muddy things. An SNP hold isn't yet a complete write off.

It's my hometown seat and I have some residual connections to some of the politiking there, but it's still early days.

[CumbrianLefty]

In that context, it shouldn't be forgotten the Airdrie/Shotts contest in May 2021 was closer than some had expected - in an environment where the SNP was still hegemonic and ScotLab stagnant.

Though yes, it still has to be won!

[icc]

One would expect the SNP by-election machine to be rather more polished than Labour's though, even now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

[Tintrlvr]

In that context, it shouldn't be forgotten the Airdrie/Shotts contest in May 2021 was closer than some had expected - in an environment where the SNP was still hegemonic and ScotLab stagnant.

Though yes, it still has to be won!

Airdrie and Shotts was strategic squeeze - the SNP vote went up compared to 2019, the Labour vote just went up more (because there were more squeezable non-Labour unionists than non-SNP nationalists). But the unsqueezable rump Tory vote that would never vote Labour or SNP was still there, and otherwise there were no more votes to squeeze (other parties, including the LDs, got only 2.3% between them).

Labour obviously needs more than just strategic squeeze to win this by-election, they need direct SNP to Labour switchers.

[Torrain]

Commons vote on suspending Ferrier is this evening.

[afleitch]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

Might be the SNP's best asset if they deploy them...

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

Might be the SNP's best asset if they deploy them...

Well both sides can at times make that claim tbf

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1661749216090406913
*Hearing

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like pro-Johnson Tories and maybe "dissident" SNPers planned an "ambush" over the vote in the hope there wouldn't be enough MPs who agreed with the suspension just before the recess.

To be on the safe side, the division was pulled until parliament resumes next month. When there will be enough people present to set things finally in motion.

[Torrain]

Aye - I’m partial to the speculation that *certain* Conservative MPs don’t want to set the precedent that an MP can be suspended from the Commons for reasons relating to COVID rule breaches…

But also, agree that the votes will be there to suspend her when the Commons comes back from recess. If Sunak couldn’t get that vote through, he’d probably be facing far more coordinated pushback than he is right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh there is no doubt it has the votes to pass in "normal" circumstances.

[Blair]

Seb Pain is apparently on the shortlist for Selby which opens the banter chance that he might have to fight a tricky by election… some poor staffer will have to listen to all his podcasts.

[Torrain]

Yeah - saw that Michael Crichton Crick had reported on that.

Honestly feel like this could go either way for Payne. If he loses a safe seat with a 20k majority, in a very high-profile by-election, it could be curtains for his political aspirations.

But we could end up having a number of by-elections in quick succession (the three MPs resigning to go to the Lords, and some combination of Ferrier and Johnson - not to mention other MPs embroiled in potential career-killing scandals like Benton, Warburton, Knight, Pincher etc). If Payne is one of, or the only Tory, to win a seat in that batch, he’d probably get a very kind write-up from outlets like the Spectator.

I’m still rooting for 5 simultaneous by-elections, just for the craic of a mini-election night.