UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[afleitch]

Excluding Airdrie, Hartlepool and Southend, the average vote share changes at by-elections are as follows

CON -14.7
LAB 0.5
LD 9.3

The average across Labour holds or pickups from the Tories is

CON -10.2
LAB 6.1
LD -1.2

Excluding Batley (due to Galloway's intervention)

CON -11.9
LAB 8.8
LD -1.3

[YL]

All other parties losing their deposit was not what quite a few predicted.

Well, it's byelection-style statistical noise in a constituency where there traditionally hasn't been much heft beyond LabCon.  And it also reflects a moment when the generic anti-LabCon vote has "spread out", as opposed to the old days of Lib Dem as a singular NOTA standby or the more recent oxygen-hogging by UKIP/Brexitty types of parties...   

I don't think any of them seriously tried, and I also don't think any of them have enough of a natural base in that constituency to be able to do much better than that when they don't seriously try.  So I'm not surprised (and, though my prediction in another place wasn't particularly good overall, I did have the right parties losing their deposits).

[CumbrianLefty]

All true enough, but polls consistently have Greens and Reform doing decently. The former might hope for some votes from left wingers browned off with Starmer, the latter aren't exactly lacking in hacked off Tories as a pool to fish in right now. And tbh the demographics of this one are arguably a bit more exploitable by a populist right outfit than the previous two NW byelections in recent months were.

[JimJamUK]

All true enough, but polls consistently have Greens and Reform doing decently... the latter aren't exactly lacking in hacked off Tories as a pool to fish in right now. And tbh the demographics of this one are arguably a bit more exploitable by a populist right outfit than the previous two NW byelections in recent months were.

The Brexit Party got 4.3% here last time, if they really were making an impact nationally you’d expect a bit more than a 0.1% increase in their vote. UKIP 2.0 the Reform Party do not seem to be.

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, a certain "senior political commentator" at the Independent has given their assessment of this byelection result. Three guesses as to what it is.....

[YL]

All true enough, but polls consistently have Greens and Reform doing decently. The former might hope for some votes from left wingers browned off with Starmer, the latter aren't exactly lacking in hacked off Tories as a pool to fish in right now. And tbh the demographics of this one are arguably a bit more exploitable by a populist right outfit than the previous two NW byelections in recent months were.

Part of the thing is that I'm sceptical of Reform UK's (and to extent also the Greens') higher polling figures.

Also I suspect that without much of a visible campaign the voters most susceptible to the populist right just won't have voted.

[YL]

Meanwhile, a certain "senior political commentator" at the Independent has given their assessment of this byelection result. Three guesses as to what it is.....

"This is wonderful news for Keir Starmer, and shows that he's set to find himself as Prime Minister with a convincing mandate"?

What would it take for him to actually say something like that?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Meanwhile, a certain "senior political commentator" at the Independent has given their assessment of this byelection result. Three guesses as to what it is.....

"This is wonderful news for Keir Starmer, and shows that he's set to find himself as Prime Minister with a convincing mandate"?

What would it take for him to actually say something like that?

Probably for Starmer to pull off a mask like a villain at the end of a Scooby Doo episode and reveal he was Anthony Lynton Blair all along.

[adma]

All true enough, but polls consistently have Greens and Reform doing decently. The former might hope for some votes from left wingers browned off with Starmer, the latter aren't exactly lacking in hacked off Tories as a pool to fish in right now. And tbh the demographics of this one are arguably a bit more exploitable by a populist right outfit than the previous two NW byelections in recent months were.

Part of the thing is that I'm sceptical of Reform UK's (and to extent also the Greens') higher polling figures.

Also I suspect that without much of a visible campaign the voters most susceptible to the populist right just won't have voted.

"Doing decently" strikes me as an over-projection of what's traditionally been a Euro-election dynamic.  But the splinter right has consistently underperformed the noise they *seem* to make on political social media; while re Green, think of them more as splitting the Lib Dem vote than anything...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It's a real shame we never had a by-election under Truss, would any Tory Seat be safe if it was held during her reign ?

[Torrain]

It's a real shame we never had a by-election under Truss, would any Tory Seat be safe if it was held during her reign ?

Ironically, Rishi Sunak’s seat would probably have been fine.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1641353111829721089

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1641353111829721089

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. The same part of the world where a certain by-election took place in 1967.

[Torrain]

Rutherglen and Hamilton West. The same part of the world where a certain by-election took place in 1967.

Not totemic at all then…

Joking aside, could be very interesting. First test of Yousaf’s electoral impact, and Labour’s potential for Scottish recovery - in a highly marginal seat. Obviously went SNP in 2015, but then narrowly flipped Labour in 2017. Lots to play for.

Of course, the suspension has to be approved by the Commons first, so we’ll see what happens there…

[afleitch]

My hometown seat.

On current polling it's a Labour gain. Would need, turnout aside, direct SNP to Labour switchers for a gain. Tories at 15% last time and the lowest they have obtained in this seat is 7%. Lib Dems at 5% lowest was 1%. So driving the other unionist parties to historic lows would probably not quite be enough.

It's not a by-election the SNP wants to fight but it's probably good for the party to do so as a 'dry run' for defending seats vulnerable to Labour.

[Conservatopia]

As much as I relish the idea of a by-election defeat for the SNP, and would even consider heading there to campaign for Labour as I have family in the area, I strongly feel that the punishment for Ferrier is too harsh.

• It was absolutely ages ago
• She was already punished by the police
• The laws were outrageously stupid and tyrannical
• What she did wasn't even that bad
• Most MPs are way more criminal on a daily basis
• The committee is a dumb, partisan body

Notable that the Conservatives on the committee apparently thought the same. This could be argued to have something to do with protecting Boris but that's unlikely really. It does suggest however that Boris will possibly get off with less than 10 days suspension even if he is found to have misled Parliament.

[Torrain]

I do think there’s a case to made that all the MPs on the committee voted within partisan interest. The SNP and Conservative MPs pushed to shorten the suspension and prevent a by-election, while Labour was gung-ho for one (which probably tells its own story). Perhaps noteworthy though that the lay members of the committee voted for the longer suspension.

Personally, I think constituents should at least have the chance to sign a recall petition - Ferrier hasn’t exactly been a beacon of parliamentary representation or standards, and her breach *was* pretty flagrant. afleitch probably knows a lot more people from that corner of Scotland than I do, but anyone I’ve heard from that neck of the woods sound off has at least been up for the chance to recall/replace her, regardless of party.

[Tintrlvr]

Bump. Chatter today from a Times article on by-elections likely pending later this year in the three seats where Johnson's resignation honours mean MPs leaving for the House of Lords.

Dumfries and Galloway would probably be the most uncertain given the SNP's current difficulties - maybe Labour could even surge to win it, or at the least it would be a close three-way race between Tories, SNP (both losing vote share) and Labour, with Labour and maybe also the LDs gaining significant ground from both anti-SNP and anti-Tory tactical unwind.

Reading West is a snooze fest on current polling, easy Labour pick-up.

Mid-Bedfordshire I imagine the LDs would throw everything at and should be able to put up a strong second but a gain would be challenge.

[CumbrianLefty]

Are you sure you mean Dumfries/Galloway, and not Selby?

Which would be a tough ask for Labour based on the 2019 result, but they weren't very far behind in last year's local elections in the seat - and are only likely to have improved their position by then.

[Torrain]

No by-election in Dumfries and Galloway, sounds like Jack has been promised a peerage by Sunak if he sticks around until the next election.

[Tintrlvr]

Are you sure you mean Dumfries/Galloway, and not Selby?

Which would be a tough ask for Labour based on the 2019 result, but they weren't very far behind in last year's local elections in the seat - and are only likely to have improved their position by then.

The Times article was focused on Allister Jack but apparently events have moved further today and that one won't happen this year.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-by-election-peerage-boris-johnson-tf36hgtrl

Selby and Ainsty would be a reach seat but potentially winnable for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing to note about Selby & Ainsty is that the new Selby-area constituency presently proposed by the Boundary Commission would be a lot more favourable to Labour: Tadcaster and the affluent villages to it's North West are replaced by a dense cluster of ex-mining villages near Leeds. So in the event of a by-election it would make obvious sense to really go for it; either to get an incumbent or some extra local momentum.

[Wiswylfen]

The thing to note about Selby & Ainsty is that the new Selby-area constituency presently proposed by the Boundary Commission would be a lot more favourable to Labour: Tadcaster and the affluent villages to it's North West are replaced by a dense cluster of ex-mining villages near Leeds. So in the event of a by-election it would make obvious sense to really go for it; either to get an incumbent or some extra local momentum.

I hadn't realised quite how favourable to Labour those villages still are, given how full they are with the newbuilds that have proven poisonous to us in so many similar places.

[JimJamUK]

I hadn't realised quite how favourable to Labour those villages still are, given how full they are with the newbuilds that have proven poisonous to us in so many similar places.

I’m sceptical they do anywhere near as well in national elections as they do locally. Even assuming the 2 northern wards in Elmet and Rothwell constituency are completely dire for Labour, the 3 southern ones can only them give so many votes for the numbers to all add up, and I doubt Kippax and Methley is radically more Labour than its 2 neighbours (as you say, the new builds won’t be great for Labour). Obviously still better for Labour than nearly all of Selby and Ainsty of course.

Edit - Just had a look at at the 2004 boundary changes in the area, and golly, there must have been some housebuilding given how much the Kippax/Garforth wards shrank.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect they would be about that strong for Labour in a national election now, but not in the last few GEs.