UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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MABA 2020
MakeAmericaBritishAgain
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« Reply #1675 on: December 02, 2022, 01:45:45 PM »

Great result, looking forward to 2024
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1676 on: December 02, 2022, 02:19:35 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2022, 04:23:38 AM by Filuwaúrdjan »

OK thanks everyone for the background about Chester - maybe a better question is why was City of Chester ever a Tory seat in the first place. Its in the north, a medium sized urban area - sounds like the kind of place that could have been a perennial Labour seat in the 60s and 70s...

Historically just a little bit too prosperous, but then there 'was' always a random element to these things: similar things could have been said of other small city and/or large town constituencies that Labour did often win in the 50s, 60s and 70s.* The mention of Liverpool is maybe relevant: North West Cheshire and South West Lancashire were more Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the middle twentieth century, and then became progressively less Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the late twentieth century and beyond.

*e.g. Gloucester, Reading and Watford had a vaguely similar SES profiles in the 1960s and early 70s.
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Blair
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« Reply #1677 on: December 02, 2022, 03:26:07 PM »

OK thanks everyone for the background about Chester - maybe a better question is why was City of Chester ever a Tory seat in the first place. Its in the north, a medium sized urban area - sounds like the kind of place that could have been a perennial Labour seat in the 60s and 70s...

Historically just a little bit too prosperous, but then there 'was' always a random element to these things: similar things could have been said of other small city and/or large town constituencies that Labour did often win in the 50s, 60s and 70s.* Another issue was that the constituency used to  The mention of Liverpool is maybe relevant: North West Cheshire and South West Lancashire were more Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the middle twentieth century, and then became progressively less Conservative-voting than might have been expected in the late twentieth century and beyond.

*e.g. Gloucester, Reading and Watford had a vaguely similar SES profiles in the 1960s and early 70s.

Still baffles me that Robert Maxwell of all people was the Labour MP for Buckingham.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1678 on: December 03, 2022, 04:49:04 AM »

Though of course the seat then contained what was to become Milton Keynes.

Back to Chester - in many ways a pretty good parallel is Exeter.

Which only ever voted Labour once prior to 1997. Btw anyone not already aware might look up the hilariously inappropriate* candidate the Tories picked for that election..... 

(* this is actually a distinctly diplomatic description)
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« Reply #1679 on: December 03, 2022, 08:20:47 AM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1680 on: December 03, 2022, 08:23:47 AM »

Though of course the seat then contained what was to become Milton Keynes.

Back to Chester - in many ways a pretty good parallel is Exeter.

Which only ever voted Labour once prior to 1997. Btw anyone not already aware might look up the hilariously inappropriate* candidate the Tories picked for that election.....  

(* this is actually a distinctly diplomatic description)
How would it have felt, being on the ground in that election campaign in Chester? As an observer, anyhow.
EDIT: Post #32,000
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adma
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« Reply #1681 on: December 03, 2022, 05:32:46 PM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

And it also had more of a "market town" cast--the northernmost carryover of the Shrewsburys and Ludlows and Leominsters and Herefords and Worcesters and Gloucesters further south.  So it felt oddly genteel and disconnected from the Merseyside industrial dynamic (more so than Blackpool, which even as a resort town was much more distinctly "North Country" in tenor than Brighton or Bournemouth).  And fittingly, Chester finally tipped into the Labour column when Labour itself became "Islington-genteel" under Blair...
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1682 on: December 04, 2022, 11:09:15 AM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1683 on: December 04, 2022, 11:47:52 AM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).
As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.
Also, places like Blackpool used to be quite middle class, it’s only in the 2nd half of the 20th century that they began trending Labour because of the collapse of the British holiday industry leading to a great deal of deprivation, and even then places like Blackpool have been reasonably good for the Conservatives more recently thanks to Brexit and their growing (and increasingly Conservative) elderly population. It’s not a very good comparison to Chester imo.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1684 on: December 04, 2022, 12:45:24 PM »

And it also had more of a "market town" cast--the northernmost carryover of the Shrewsburys and Ludlows and Leominsters and Herefords and Worcesters and Gloucesters further south.  So it felt oddly genteel and disconnected from the Merseyside industrial dynamic (more so than Blackpool, which even as a resort town was much more distinctly "North Country" in tenor than Brighton or Bournemouth).  And fittingly, Chester finally tipped into the Labour column when Labour itself became "Islington-genteel" under Blair...

Fundamentally it's a Marches city, yes, right down to its peculiarly polarized social geography meaning that to a visitor it looks to be a richer place than it actually is: after all, even little Ludlow has its comparatively large peripheral estate. Cheshire is a funny county in that in terms of region it belongs to several: the northern parts were always part of the North West (which has always been, in effect, Greater Lancashire), the western parts were Marches and the eastern parts essentially an extension of the North Midlands. The Marches thing might be as relevant as the Liverpool link in explaining certainly its past voting habits: a lot of the region was historically more Tory than might have been expected as the sectarian split in voting patterns was actually about the same as in Wales rather than what was typical in England. Plausible that the migration of a lot of working class people from North Wales to the city - including members of my family as it happens - in the mid Twentieth century reinforced that dynamic for a while, though quite probably bringing it to a swifter ending eventually.
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YL
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« Reply #1685 on: December 04, 2022, 01:00:53 PM »

Of course Liverpool and its surroundings itself also have a lot of Welsh influence (including some of my family).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1686 on: December 04, 2022, 01:10:50 PM »

Of course Liverpool and its surroundings itself also have a lot of Welsh influence (including some of my family).

Even the accent is what happens when you combine South Lancashire accents with coastal North (East) Walian ones. People often assume that accents in e.g. Flintshire sound a bit like Scouse because of Liverpool influence, but it's actually the other way around.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1687 on: December 05, 2022, 06:06:07 AM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.

because it involved a lot of small family run businesses, or..?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1688 on: December 08, 2022, 04:02:18 PM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.

Brighton Pavilion is also a great example, being a safe-ish Tory seat until 1997.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1689 on: December 13, 2022, 08:15:16 AM »

Seems to me the best explanation is that Labour was seen as an industrial party, and Chester was not so transformed by the industrial revolution even as it depended on the downstream effects of industry (similar to Blackpool, also Tory till 1997).

As with similar seaside towns, the hospitality industry was traditionally also monolithically pro-Tory.

Brighton Pavilion is also a great example, being a safe-ish Tory seat until 1997.

I'm reminded of the film "The Damned United" when Brian Clough is baffled that his assistant took a job in Brighton: he asks him, "why would you want to be surrounded by all these Tories?"
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TheTide
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« Reply #1690 on: December 15, 2022, 05:06:53 AM »

Stretford and Urmston today. Exciting.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1691 on: December 15, 2022, 05:09:24 AM »

It’s pretty low-key, but there is a parliamentary by-election today, in Stretford and Urmston.
Incumbent MP Kate Green is standing down to become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester under Andy Burnham’s administration.

Looks like it’ll be a safe Labour hold - they got 60% in 2019, to only 27% for the Conservatives. Guess the only question is around the margins.
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patzer
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« Reply #1692 on: December 15, 2022, 05:41:34 AM »

Will be interesting to see the minor party results. How much the SDP and Reform eat into the tory vote.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1693 on: December 15, 2022, 06:34:31 AM »

Will be interesting to see the minor party results. How much the SDP and Reform eat into the tory vote.
The former will do very little, the latter should be getting a few % if you believe the polls, I’m sceptical.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1694 on: December 15, 2022, 08:12:44 AM »

Will be interesting to see the minor party results. How much the SDP and Reform eat into the tory vote.
The former will do very little, the latter should be getting a few % if you believe the polls, I’m sceptical.

Reform/Brexit got 3.5% in the seat back in 2019 - wonder what the benchmark is for them to impress here?

If I had to guess - anything over 5% feels like a good soft target for them (saved deposits make for a moral victory I guess), anything over 10% is a pretty good night, and coming in any lower than 2019 feels like a bad omen for them.
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YL
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« Reply #1695 on: December 15, 2022, 08:23:50 AM »

Here's Andrew Teale's preview.

As with Chester, I don't think it's the best sort of seat for Reform UK -- it might have been better when the Urmston/Davyhulme area was more as it used to be when Winston Churchill (grandson) represented it -- but it's hardly Bristol West or Brighton Pavilion either, and if they're really polling high single figures nationally I think they ought to be saving their deposit.  I'm sceptical, though.

How the area has changed is perhaps the most interesting thing about this by-election.  The 1950-1983 Stretford seat, which usually voted Conservative and which was held by Churchill for its last 13 years, really had quite similar boundaries.  It was split between separate Stretford (also including bits of Manchester proper, and consistently Labour) and Davyhulme (which Churchill moved to and represented throughout its existence) constituencies in 1983, and re-united on more or less its present boundaries in 1997, and the Tories haven't got a look in since the re-unification.  The post-1997 version is slightly better for Labour (see what Andrew says about Partington) but by nowhere near enough to explain the changes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1696 on: December 15, 2022, 09:06:16 AM »

A lot of it is linked to the economic recovery of Manchester from the late 1990s onwards: Stretford itself is now essentially part of the inner city, and what were once middling suburbs are now inner suburbs. As far as historical boundaries are concerned, a constituency with the present boundaries would have been Labour in at least 1964 and 1974 (Oct) as well as 1966 due to the inclusion of Partington and Carrington (both on the other side of the Mersey therefore in Cheshire) in the post-1997 constituency.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1697 on: December 15, 2022, 10:27:42 AM »

There also seems to have been a change not just in demographics, but in the voting habits of longer term residents. Most notably, the 4 Urmston wards zoomed left in 2018. Local issues and potentially local elections previously lagging behind general election support may have played a part, but it’s clearly the sort of place that has a lot of people who voted Conservative under Cameron but not since.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1698 on: December 15, 2022, 11:00:50 AM »

Urmston has relatively high rates of people working in certain parts of the public sector without being middle class enough overall for that not to become electorally problematic for the Conservative Party these days.
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xelas81
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« Reply #1699 on: December 15, 2022, 09:56:58 PM »

Results

Labour   Andrew Western   12,828   69.6   
Conservative   Emily Carter-Kandola   2,922   15.9   
Green   Dan Jerrome   789   4.3   
Liberal Democrats   Anna Fryer   659   3.6   
Reform UK   Paul Swansborough   650   3.5   
Rejoin EU   Jim Newell   237   1.3   
Independent   Hazel Gibb   183   1.0   
Freedom Alliance   Christina Glancy   76   0.4   
SDP   Julien Yvon   74   0.4
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