UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170173 times)
YL
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« Reply #1600 on: October 29, 2022, 10:16:05 AM »

Brothers did not make the shortlist, which comprises just two people - Dixon and Adam Harrison, who is a Camden councillor (though one assumes they do have some sort of "local" connection)

Yes, he was born and grew up there.  My impression is that it will probably be Dixon, though.

The Tories have selected Liz Wardlaw, who is a councillor for Odd Rode ward on Cheshire East council, which is in the Congleton constituency.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1601 on: October 30, 2022, 03:56:57 PM »

Dixon selected for Labour:

Appreciate it's been cited several times in this thread, but really do want to recommend Michael Crick's @tomorrowsmps account. It's a window on the closest thing we have to primary season in the UK.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1602 on: October 30, 2022, 10:31:44 PM »

For City of Chester and West Lancashire, seems very unlikely Tories pick up either but if did would be a massive shocker.  That being said if Tories stay above 30% in either or both, that is a good sign.  High 20s shows trouble, but at least not massive defeat.  Under 25% and especially under 20% suggests disaster.  For Labour party, need at least 50% and anything under that shows big trouble.  60% would be nice but might be a challenge.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1603 on: October 31, 2022, 04:46:10 PM »

For City of Chester and West Lancashire, seems very unlikely Tories pick up either but if did would be a massive shocker.  That being said if Tories stay above 30% in either or both, that is a good sign.  High 20s shows trouble, but at least not massive defeat.  Under 25% and especially under 20% suggests disaster.  For Labour party, need at least 50% and anything under that shows big trouble.  60% would be nice but might be a challenge.
By-elections don’t really work on national numbers like that - they’re not polls, more like focus group with a fixation on local issues. In City of Chester, Labour have never achieved over 53% of the vote, and the Tories have never fallen under 30%. It’s mostly the swing compared to 2019 that’s useful to us.

For example, Labour and the Tories both collapsed in Tiverton and Honiton in the by-election this summer, while the Lib Dems gained 38% on the prior election. Which would put us on track for a national Liberal landslide.

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TheTide
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« Reply #1604 on: November 01, 2022, 08:58:56 AM »

They'll be some demand for a West Suffolk by-election now that the Honourable Member is going into the jungle.
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YL
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« Reply #1605 on: November 01, 2022, 01:15:58 PM »

The Lib Dems have selected Rob Heard, who is a languages teacher who lives in Chester (but, reading between the lines, I think he teaches in St Helen's).  Can they maintain their impressive record this parliament of winning every by-election where they save their deposit?
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« Reply #1606 on: November 01, 2022, 02:09:21 PM »

They'll be some demand for a West Suffolk by-election now that the Honourable Member is going into the jungle.

The current member for Mid Bedfordshire also did this and that wasn't the end of her career (and in the 2000s, the MP for Bethnal Green went into the Big Brother House, and he continued his ... Political career afterwards).
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TheTide
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« Reply #1607 on: November 01, 2022, 05:03:42 PM »

They'll be some demand for a West Suffolk by-election now that the Honourable Member is going into the jungle.

The current member for Mid Bedfordshire also did this and that wasn't the end of her career (and in the 2000s, the MP for Bethnal Green went into the Big Brother House, and he continued his ... Political career afterwards).

Hancock seems to have lost the confidence of his local party (not that they can directly trigger a by-election) though, with the Chair making a point of putting disparaging comments on the record.


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YL
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« Reply #1608 on: November 04, 2022, 12:22:45 PM »

Nine candidates for City of Chester

Jeanie Barton (Reform UK)
Paul Bowers (Green)
Samantha Dixon (Lab)
Cain Griffiths (UKIP)
Rob Herd (Lib Dem)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Chris Quartermaine (Freedom Alliance)
Liz Wardlaw (Con)

No hard left, no Independents.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1609 on: November 04, 2022, 06:41:21 PM »

Having Reform UK (the Brexit Party) and Rejoin EU on the same ballot is odd. Two polar-opposite single-issue parties. Has this vibe:
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1610 on: November 04, 2022, 06:46:29 PM »

What ever happened with the eight MPs Boris had nominated for peerages?  Did we ever find out who they were?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1611 on: November 04, 2022, 06:55:17 PM »

What ever happened with the eight MPs Boris had nominated for peerages?  Did we ever find out who they were?

His Resignation Honours List has yet to be published, so we do not know...
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Torrain
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« Reply #1612 on: November 05, 2022, 05:38:36 AM »

What ever happened with the eight MPs Boris had nominated for peerages?  Did we ever find out who they were?

His Resignation Honours List has yet to be published, so we do not know...
The Telegraph previously reported that his list was submitted to the House of Lords Appointment Commission on October 10th - so it’s coming up on a month since vetting started.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1613 on: November 05, 2022, 07:18:18 AM »

Meanwhile in West Lancashire, Rosie Cooper remains the MP despite it being widely reported she was going to start her new job on November 1st and thus automatically vacate her seat then.
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« Reply #1614 on: November 07, 2022, 05:54:37 PM »
« Edited: November 07, 2022, 05:59:38 PM by c r a b c a k e »

BJ's resignation list has been published, with four sitting MP's:

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire
Alok Sharma - Reading West
Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway
nigel Adams - Selby and Ainsty

Reading West would be certain Labour, Dumfries and Galloway would be certain SNP (given Labour used to have some strength here, I wonder if they could embarrassingly push Tories to third) and the other two would be in play on current polling.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1615 on: November 08, 2022, 02:27:12 AM »

BJ's resignation list has been published, with four sitting MP's:

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire
Alok Sharma - Reading West
Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway
nigel Adams - Selby and Ainsty


Man, they’re gonna get Sharma out of the HoC one way or another haha
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Torrain
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« Reply #1616 on: November 08, 2022, 09:21:13 AM »

BJ's resignation list has been published, with four sitting MP's:

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire
Alok Sharma - Reading West
Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway
nigel Adams - Selby and Ainsty

Reading West would be certain Labour, Dumfries and Galloway would be certain SNP (given Labour used to have some strength here, I wonder if they could embarrassingly push Tories to third) and the other two would be in play on current polling.
Rumour seems to be that Sunak is trying to broker the same deal that Truss did - trying to get Charles to break precedent and delay appointments until the end of this Parliament, so by-elections don't happen.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1617 on: November 08, 2022, 10:35:05 AM »

Though you could quite easily see one or two of them quitting anyway.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1618 on: November 08, 2022, 10:36:24 AM »

This list, we have to note, is pre-vetting. If the government is truly keen to avoid by-elections, then a little 'assistance' there might be a less problematic way of going about it.
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DL
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« Reply #1619 on: November 08, 2022, 12:43:39 PM »

BJ's resignation list has been published, with four sitting MP's:

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire
Alok Sharma - Reading West
Alister Jack - Dumfries and Galloway
nigel Adams - Selby and Ainsty

Reading West would be certain Labour, Dumfries and Galloway would be certain SNP (given Labour used to have some strength here, I wonder if they could embarrassingly push Tories to third) and the other two would be in play on current polling.
Rumour seems to be that Sunak is trying to broker the same deal that Truss did - trying to get Charles to break precedent and delay appointments until the end of this Parliament, so by-elections don't happen.

I can understand why Sunak and co would want to avoid any byelections, but its not as if losing a few seats is going to rob the Tories of their majority and if the next election is as much as two years away its inevitable that there will be more byelections - not to mention local elections in May 2023 that will be a massive Tory shellacking - so why go to any extraordinary lengths to avoid a few more byelectuons?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1620 on: November 08, 2022, 12:49:35 PM »

I can understand why Sunak and co would want to avoid any byelections, but its not as if losing a few seats is going to rob the Tories of their majority and if the next election is as much as two years away its inevitable that there will be more byelections - not to mention local elections in May 2023 that will be a massive Tory shellacking - so why go to any extraordinary lengths to avoid a few more byelectuons?
I suppose it’s a mix of wanting to avoid any bad news that can be avoided and potentially concern that a few very bad by-elections would bring about an early challenge to Sunak’s leadership. It may be the view of the government that this winter is going to be awful politically but that things might be getting better by May 2023 (and it’s harder to chuck a leader the closer you get to an election).
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Torrain
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« Reply #1621 on: November 08, 2022, 04:11:49 PM »

Guardian sound pretty certain the peerages are being delayed.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1622 on: November 09, 2022, 02:17:28 AM »

If there are any budding song writers here, I would appreciate a song called "By-election in the U.K" though I know 'cause I, I wanna be, by-election' doesn't make any sense.
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Torrain
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1623 on: November 09, 2022, 06:30:36 AM »


Labour won 60% of the vote, and a 13,000 vote majority in 2019, so likely to be an easy hold.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1624 on: November 09, 2022, 10:33:42 AM »
« Edited: November 09, 2022, 11:07:58 AM by CumbrianLefty »


Labour won 60% of the vote, and a 13,000 vote majority in 2019, so likely to be an easy hold.

Labour already selected a candidate for the next GE (as Green had previously said that she would be retiring then) who is Andrew Western, former Trafford council leader who stood against Graham Brady in the 2017 and 2019 elections. This will need to be re-confirmed by the party NEC for this byelection, but that should be a formality unless something totally unexpected emerges. Poll likely to be held on December 15 (also possible for the now for a while "imminent" West Lancashire vacancy)
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