UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

I almost miss the days when Euan Blair's name was mentioned with every Labour vacancy

[EastAnglianLefty]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

Wouldn't he have to stand down as Mayor, as you can't be an MP and have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers at the same time, and the Greater Manchester Mayor has those?  (Same reason as Tracy Brabin had to stand down from Batley & Spen when she became West Yorks Mayor.)

Yeah he would- my hunch is that he’s hoping a Manchester based seat becomes available through retirement at the last minute and he can run in the GE. But ofc events have been changed from this time last year when he needed a seat to theoretically depose Starmer whereas now who knows- become Secretary of State for the North in a KS cabinet?

He seems to enjoy being Mayor anyway and is young enough to wait.

My money is on Graham Stringer personally, he’s a weird guy but I heard on the party grapevine that Burnham was sniffing around him in the event of a snap. Outside chance of Andrew Gwynne imo, he looks pretty miserable nowadays. Or, ironically enough, Tony Lloyd.

Lloyd was really seriously ill with covid during the first lockdown and is not young, so it would be a surprise if he chooses to run again. Then again, it was a surprise he made a return in 2017.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why would Burnham not just run for Leigh?

[JimJamUK]

Why would Burnham not just run for Leigh?

His successor Jo Platt who served as MP for 2 years is making a comeback and is already the candidate.

[Coldstream]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

Wouldn't he have to stand down as Mayor, as you can't be an MP and have the Police and Crime Commissioner powers at the same time, and the Greater Manchester Mayor has those?  (Same reason as Tracy Brabin had to stand down from Batley & Spen when she became West Yorks Mayor.)

Yeah he would- my hunch is that he’s hoping a Manchester based seat becomes available through retirement at the last minute and he can run in the GE. But ofc events have been changed from this time last year when he needed a seat to theoretically depose Starmer whereas now who knows- become Secretary of State for the North in a KS cabinet?

He seems to enjoy being Mayor anyway and is young enough to wait.

My money is on Graham Stringer personally, he’s a weird guy but I heard on the party grapevine that Burnham was sniffing around him in the event of a snap. Outside chance of Andrew Gwynne imo, he looks pretty miserable nowadays. Or, ironically enough, Tony Lloyd.

Lloyd was really seriously ill with covid during the first lockdown and is not young, so it would be a surprise if he chooses to run again. Then again, it was a surprise he made a return in 2017.

Yeah but he & Burnham aren’t exactly fans of one another so I’d be surprised if Lloyd  stood down last minute to benefit Burnham.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour's shortlist for West Lancashire has been announced.

No explicit locals, though one was recently a councillor in Kirkby which borders the constituency.

[JimJamUK]

Labour's shortlist for West Lancashire has been announced.

No explicit locals, though one was recently a councillor in Kirkby which borders the constituency.

Elected deputy leader in 2021, then lost her seat to an independent in May.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

According to the Times BoJo's resignation honours list contains eight serving Tory MPs, presumably including Adams and Dorries. This is accompanied with some constitutional debate about whether they are allowed to defer their peerages to a less ... awkward time (probably not, and it might need the King's assent).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

According to the Times BoJo's resignation honours list contains eight serving Tory MPs, presumably including Adams and Dorries. This is accompanied with some constitutional debate about whether they are allowed to defer their peerages to a less ... awkward time (probably not, and it might need the King's assent).

Who deals with constitutional debates?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

According to the Times BoJo's resignation honours list contains eight serving Tory MPs, presumably including Adams and Dorries. This is accompanied with some constitutional debate about whether they are allowed to defer their peerages to a less ... awkward time (probably not, and it might need the King's assent).

Who deals with constitutional debates?

In this specific case, it would be the King. Though this would create it's own problems: does Truss really want to alienate Charles straight out the gate with a Hobson's choice that would force the Crown into either: denying a request from PM and risk stretching his mandate as constitutional monarch or allow PM to get her way and therefore break convention, increase the power of the executive and further disturbing the peerage system.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Needs to be noted there, that the relationship between the new King and the new PM is already atrocious, and entirely because of actions taken by the latter. She really is a marvel of sorts.

[Joe Republic]

When will we know which MPs / constituencies are potentially about to be vacated?

[Andrea]

Labour's shortlist for West Lancashire has been announced.

No explicit locals, though one was recently a councillor in Kirkby which borders the constituency.

Ashley Dalton selected.

[Blair]

Such a boring by election that there hasn’t been a single piece of discord over this selection!

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Chris Matheson (Labour) is resigning as MP for the City of Chester over sexual misconduct in Parliament, thus a by-election is to be held.

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2022/october-2022/independent-expert-panel-recommends-suspending-christian-matheson-mp-for-serious-sexual-misconduct/

[YL]

One of those seats which looks safe Labour if you just look at the last two elections but not at all if you look before that.  Once held by TV personality Gyles Brandreth for the Tories.

[YL]

Chester is a fairly small but historically important city, known for the black and white half timbered buildings in the city centre.  For the most part it's reasonably prosperous as British cities go, though certainly not universally so, and its constituency was Tory for most of the 20th century, falling to Labour in 1997; the Tories regained it in 2010, but Labour narrowly took it in 2015, followed by a big swing in their favour in 2017 and a comfortable hold in 2019.  Labour also hold most of the Cheshire West & Chester wards within the built up area, though there are also some more rural areas in the constituency which have Tory councillors.  It's very close to the Welsh border, to the extent that some of its suburbs (and most of its football club's ground) are actually in Wales, and in the Alyn & Deeside constituency.  It has a university which originated as an offshoot of Liverpool University, and the city is at the outer edge of the cultural influence of Liverpool; it's the terminus of one of Merseyrail's lines...

... as is Ormskirk in the West Lancashire constituency, which also has a pending by-election.  (I guess the two may end up being on the same day, though West Lancs isn't officially vacant until Rosie Cooper starts her new job at the beginning of November).  So the two have some similarlities in both having universities whose university status is recent but whose history goes back further (Edge Hill in West Lancs' case) and having some influence from Liverpool.

Here are some rankings (out of 650) for the two constituencies (except for deprivation, from the now rather out of date 2011 census):

	West Lancs	C of Chester
Managers, directors and senior officials	259	219
Professional	257	108
Associate professional and technical	473	196
Administrative and secretarial	326	523
Skilled trades	414	552
Caring, leisure and other service	163	530
Sales and customer service	437	149
Process plant and machine operatives	211	483
Elementary occupations	177	297
No qualifications	313	497
Level 4 qualifications	337	106
Full time students	139	113
Deprivation	337	381

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Under current circumstance can the by-election be assumed to be a safe labour hold or is there a chance something weird will happen ?

[YL]

Under current circumstance can the by-election be assumed to be a safe labour hold or is there a chance something weird will happen ?

I think both City of Chester and West Lancashire ought to be safe Labour holds unless something dramatic changes.  Both were won reasonably comfortably in 2019, and the Tory vote fell in both, but neither is the sort of seat where the Tories are obviously so out of contention that a Lib Dem or Green challenge might get going, though Chester at least has demographics which might be susceptible.

[Blair]

Writ was moved for Chester earlier this week- so likely an early December election.

Will be interesting whether Labour go for the old tried and tested local Cllr or whether they try and get someone more high profile in- the seat is at risk of getting carved up though in the review.

[YL]

Writ was moved for Chester earlier this week- so likely an early December election.

Will be interesting whether Labour go for the old tried and tested local Cllr or whether they try and get someone more high profile in- the seat is at risk of getting carved up though in the review.

The council have already said it'll be Thursday 1 December.  The notice of election will be issued tomorrow and nominations will close Friday next week, 4 November.

Three possible names for the Labour nomination according to Michael Crick:
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1584113524170960897

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1584482255111483392

[CumbrianLefty]

Brothers did not make the shortlist, which comprises just two people - Dixon and Adam Harrison, who is a Camden councillor (though one assumes they do have some sort of "local" connection)

[YL]

Brothers did not make the shortlist, which comprises just two people - Dixon and Adam Harrison, who is a Camden councillor (though one assumes they do have some sort of "local" connection)

Yes, he was born and grew up there.  My impression is that it will probably be Dixon, though.

The Tories have selected Liz Wardlaw, who is a councillor for Odd Rode ward on Cheshire East council, which is in the Congleton constituency.

[Torrain]

Dixon selected for Labour:
https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1586761287656247296
Appreciate it's been cited several times in this thread, but really do want to recommend Michael Crick's @tomorrowsmps account. It's a window on the closest thing we have to primary season in the UK.