UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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October 04, 2022, 10:25:54 PM
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1525 on: June 27, 2022, 03:53:07 AM »

I think Dartford might just about stay Conservative in a by-election without a major scandal, but to judge by local election results that wouldn't be because of the White Van Man bits of the seat - and certainly not those which people think of as White Van Man territory, even if a lot of the owners of said vehicles are much better off than that.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1526 on: June 27, 2022, 05:19:20 AM »

Though it is speculated that ongoing demographic changes mean that Dartford may just have reached "peak Tory" - and don't forget it was almost as safe for them back in the 1980s.
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Blair
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« Reply #1527 on: July 01, 2022, 09:23:24 AM »

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1528 on: July 02, 2022, 07:19:38 AM »

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 

More interesting is that the Conservatives spent nearly as much which is... bizarre... as they were never in contention.
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The Thinking Man's Orangewoman
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« Reply #1529 on: July 02, 2022, 11:13:47 AM »

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 

More interesting is that the Conservatives spent nearly as much which is... bizarre... as they were never in contention.
Love-bombing the council wards?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1530 on: July 02, 2022, 11:55:37 AM »


It may have been an attempt to get a bit of extra attention to the area for the locals, not that it did them much good if that was the idea.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1531 on: July 04, 2022, 05:56:37 AM »

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 

More interesting is that the Conservatives spent nearly as much which is... bizarre... as they were never in contention.

They may have thought so, nonetheless. The sort of demographic that has gone their way elsewhere.

(and Hartlepool was less than a year earlier, even though it doesn't seem like that!)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1532 on: July 04, 2022, 08:30:23 AM »

They may have thought so, nonetheless. The sort of demographic that has gone their way elsewhere.

And it's certainly true that absent Dromey (who was a popular and very high profile MP: he must have been on Midlands Today more than any other MP from the region and I presume he was all over local radio as well) the Labour majority in Erdington at '19 would have been tiny. But of course...

Quote
(and Hartlepool was less than a year earlier, even though it doesn't seem like that!)

...things have changed extremely fast, haven't they? Of course they should have picked up on this by that point. There was already plenty of evidence from local by-elections to suggest that while Labour were not making much (or really any) headway in Middle England at the time despite Conservative difficulties there, they were already doing a lot better amongst certain other demographics. But there has been a consistent refusal to accept this from senior people in the Conservative Party. It hasn't even entirely gone away post-Wakefield.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1533 on: July 04, 2022, 08:55:17 AM »

But there has been a consistent refusal to accept this from senior people in the Conservative Party. It hasn't even entirely gone away post-Wakefield.
Just today, the Conservative supporting press are talking about Borisí great (current) appeal and how this cannot he replicated by any potential leadership challengers. There seems to be a complete unwillingness among large sections of the commentariat to accept that not only was Boris never an electoral juggernaut during his leadership to begin with, but also that his popularity has crashed and he is now electoral poison to basically anybody who isnít a dyed in the wool Conservative supporter. Whatís the event that will make them realise heís a liability, because theyíre already well behind in the polls and losing by-elections on big swings, including now to Labour?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1534 on: July 04, 2022, 08:58:04 AM »

Maybe a Labour gain in Tamworth, should that vacancy happen?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1535 on: July 04, 2022, 11:02:19 AM »

But there has been a consistent refusal to accept this from senior people in the Conservative Party. It hasn't even entirely gone away post-Wakefield.
Just today, the Conservative supporting press are talking about Borisí great (current) appeal and how this cannot he replicated by any potential leadership challengers. There seems to be a complete unwillingness among large sections of the commentariat to accept that not only was Boris never an electoral juggernaut during his leadership to begin with, but also that his popularity has crashed and he is now electoral poison to basically anybody who isnít a dyed in the wool Conservative supporter. Whatís the event that will make them realise heís a liability, because theyíre already well behind in the polls and losing by-elections on big swings, including now to Labour?

Pet theory time: With Brexit 'done' the elite (Etonian?) Conservative machine has no idea how to appeal to the electorates in the many first-time seats gained in 2019. Boris is therefore the only thing they therefore have to supposedly put forward - especially since many of the intake personally owe their jobs to his 2019 decisions - so it just comes off as pathetic.

This the type of parliamentary rot sets in once a government has run its course and has no idea how to maintain its coalition, and the only way to cure it is to lose and electorally purge the deadwood and outdated thinkers. Cause much of the seats the Tories won in 2019 will probably be marginals for a while, and there are ways the Tories can appeal to them post-Brexit, but Boris ain't it and he is now part of the deadwood. Losing a bunch of seats for the first time in the home counties to the Lib-Dems, like YouGov suggest, will certainly hammer the point home.
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #1536 on: July 04, 2022, 03:04:46 PM »

Maybe a Labour gain in Tamworth, should that vacancy happen?

Interesting history, but I feel it's the exact sort of seat that Labour still struggle in (and fwiw do not need for even a healthy majority) - it's the brummie equivalent of those thames estuary seats (like aforementioned Dartford) where you have a lot of families with working class origins but now work as senior sales reps or managers - NewLab made a pitch for these sort of people, but none of the faces of Labour are particularly appealing for them. It would probably be Upminster, but closer.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1537 on: July 04, 2022, 03:24:59 PM »

Maybe a Labour gain in Tamworth, should that vacancy happen?

Interesting history, but I feel it's the exact sort of seat that Labour still struggle in (and fwiw do not need for even a healthy majority) - it's the brummie equivalent of those thames estuary seats (like aforementioned Dartford) where you have a lot of families with working class origins but now work as senior sales reps or managers - NewLab made a pitch for these sort of people, but none of the faces of Labour are particularly appealing for them. It would probably be Upminster, but closer.

Yes - there are, as it happens, still some parts of Tamworth town that are quite working class and, hooray, as of this year Labour are actually competitive in them in local elections again, but the rest... hmm.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1538 on: July 05, 2022, 09:30:33 AM »

Sure a Labour gain in any Tamworth byelection would be a big ask. But in a way, that takes some of the pressure off and makes it a "shot to nothing" for them. And just imagine if they *did* win.....
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DL
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« Reply #1539 on: July 05, 2022, 11:30:03 AM »

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1540 on: July 05, 2022, 11:40:05 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2022, 11:48:21 AM by Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil »

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't
North East Hampshire? (maybe)
EDIT: After looking at 2019 results, I would put forth Sleaford and North Hykeham.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1541 on: July 05, 2022, 05:33:31 PM »

Under the current conditions - what’s the thinking on a hypothetical Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, in the event that Johnson is forced out of No.10, and decides that the lecturing circuit is preferable to being hauled in front of the Privileges Committee this autumn?

I know that several polling models have put it as a possible Labour pick-up, but I’m intrigued to hear what you guys think the likelihood of a gain is, and what the margin would look like.

I feel like it’s definitely possible, but have to imagine that CCHQ would throw money at the race, rather than face the ignominy of losing a PM’s seat. Sure these things happen (look at Thatcher’s seat in 1997, Brown’s in 2015, and Blair’s in 2019), but losing it in a high-profile by-election would do some serious damage to electoral expectations. 
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YL
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« Reply #1542 on: July 06, 2022, 02:06:03 AM »

Under the current conditions - whatís the thinking on a hypothetical Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, in the event that Johnson is forced out of No.10, and decides that the lecturing circuit is preferable to being hauled in front of the Privileges Committee this autumn?

I know that several polling models have put it as a possible Labour pick-up, but Iím intrigued to hear what you guys think the likelihood of a gain is, and what the margin would look like.

I feel like itís definitely possible, but have to imagine that CCHQ would throw money at the race, rather than face the ignominy of losing a PMís seat. Sure these things happen (look at Thatcherís seat in 1997, Brownís in 2015, and Blairís in 2019), but losing it in a high-profile by-election would do some serious damage to electoral expectations. 

Today a Tory-held seat with that margin would be a goner in a by-election.  But any Uxbridge & South Ruislip by-election will presumably be held in the new PM's honeymoon period, so I suspect they'd have a chance of holding it.

The recent trends there don't suggest Johnson has much of a personal vote in his constituency, BTW.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1543 on: July 06, 2022, 03:49:02 AM »

If the unlikely does happen and Starmer is forced out, so the new Labour leader takes office at roughly the same time as the new PM, how do the honeymoon effects work? Does the Labour leader get any honeymoon effect normally, so would this reduce the PM's, or just get outshone completely?
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1544 on: July 06, 2022, 03:34:46 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2022, 03:44:53 PM by Tintrlvr »

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't

There are still a bunch in eastern England generally (especially Essex, but really in a belt running from Lincolnshire south to Kent, even including a few seats within London, such as Hornchurch and Upminster) that I would think are safe. I think, without checking, that that is at least 100 seats total. Really any seat with a majority of more than 20% where the Lib Dems are irrelevant (which let's say means less than 10% of the vote in 2019). Those seats are concentrated in the belt I mentioned but there are some outside of it, too. Can be a bit of a "feel" thing since there are some seats where the Lib Dems got low votes in 2019 but still might have potential.

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't
North East Hampshire? (maybe)
EDIT: After looking at 2019 results, I would put forth Sleaford and North Hykeham.

North East Hampshire I think would fall to the Lib Dems in a by-election held tomorrow. Sleaford and North Hykeham is definitely in the group I mentioned above, though.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1545 on: July 06, 2022, 03:51:18 PM »

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't

There are still a bunch in eastern England generally (especially Essex, but really in a belt running from Lincolnshire south to Kent, even including a few seats within London, such as Hornchurch and Upminster) that I would think are safe. I think, without checking, that that is at least 100 seats total. Really any seat with a majority of more than 20% where the Lib Dems are irrelevant (which let's say means less than 10% of the vote in 2019). Those seats are concentrated in the belt I mentioned but there are some outside of it, too. Can be a bit of a "feel" thing since there are some seats where the Lib Dems got low votes in 2019 but still might have potential.

I would think that in the current environment, there is not a single solitary Tory seat in all of the UK that could be considered safe in a byelection context. Seriously, can anyone name ANY seat at all that the Tories would be favoured to hold if a byelection took place tomorrow? I can't
North East Hampshire? (maybe)
EDIT: After looking at 2019 results, I would put forth Sleaford and North Hykeham.

North East Hampshire I think would fall to the Lib Dems in a by-election held tomorrow. Sleaford and North Hykeham is definitely in the group I mentioned above, though.
I was shocked to learn just how high the Lib Dem vote was in North East  Hampshire in 2019. 26 freaking percent...
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1546 on: July 06, 2022, 04:53:08 PM »

If the unlikely does happen and Starmer is forced out, so the new Labour leader takes office at roughly the same time as the new PM, how do the honeymoon effects work? Does the Labour leader get any honeymoon effect normally, so would this reduce the PM's, or just get outshone completely?

Would be an interesting experiment if it happens (and its just possible it might)

And of course Starmer barely got a poll boost for Labour at all when he took over as leader, but that was in very unusual circumstances in many ways.
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Blair
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« Reply #1547 on: July 23, 2022, 03:08:41 AM »

Rachel Reeves did a biggish campaign trip to Reading West.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1548 on: July 23, 2022, 08:39:09 AM »

Rachel Reeves did a biggish campaign trip to Reading West.
Tomorrow, it will be one month exactly since submissions closed for the role Alok Sharma wants at the UN (Executive Secretary at the UNFCCC). I canít find an exact timetable for announcements there, but if thereís even a chance heís going to get it, then it makes sense Labour are laying the groundwork for a by-election campaign.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1549 on: August 05, 2022, 07:17:15 PM »
« Edited: August 05, 2022, 07:22:28 PM by Torrain »

The Times are reporting that the Baroness Dorries rumour is legitimate, and thus a by-election in Mid Bedfordshire is expected to happen in October:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nadine-dorries-peerage-will-trigger-by-election-battle-for-tories-t3gr8gl65

The seat is roughly as blue as Tiverton & Honiton or North Shropshire, but was considerably safer in 1997 (a low watermark electorally for the Tories) than either of those seats (MB having a 7,000 Tory majority then, compared to 2,000 for the other two).

The current Tory majority in Mid Bedfordshire is 24,664. That’s 425 more than T&H had before the by-election, and thus means that a loss here would become the new record for the largest majority overturned at a by-election (and the second time this record was broken, in the same year).

In normal circumstances, you’d expect the new PM’s honeymoon period to bring it easily home for the government. Will be an interesting barometer of the political environment - whatever the outcome.
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