UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170057 times)
Blair
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« Reply #1500 on: June 25, 2022, 09:24:51 AM »
« edited: June 25, 2022, 04:16:55 PM by Blair »

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1501 on: June 25, 2022, 09:48:55 AM »

T & H has historic LibDem strength whilst N Shropshire never really did, however.

It did, but a bit further back: they had a strong vote from the 1961 by-election onwards and at points seemed to threaten the possibility of maybe being competitive at some point, but they never followed through and things eventually fizzled out.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1502 on: June 25, 2022, 10:36:48 AM »

I don't know the numbers for Wakefield, but for T&H there were very few blank ballots--60 or so plus 50 overvotes.  There was some suggestion that angry Tories would vote blank, but they didn't.
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1503 on: June 25, 2022, 11:08:04 AM »

I don't know the numbers for Wakefield, but for T&H there were very few blank ballots--60 or so plus 50 overvotes.  There was some suggestion that angry Tories would vote blank, but they didn't.
If you’re pissed off enough to not be willing to vote for anybody else, then you almost certainly just stay home. This is especially true for by-elections.
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Logical
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« Reply #1504 on: June 25, 2022, 11:34:40 AM »

The only seats that are safe are
Dnipro South and Kigali West?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1505 on: June 25, 2022, 01:53:22 PM »

“The polls may suggest Boris Johnson is hideously unpopular, but here in a dinner 20 minutes out from Kyiv, he’s much more popular than he was even at the 2019 election. What are the polls missing?”
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1506 on: June 25, 2022, 02:01:48 PM »

I don't know the numbers for Wakefield, but for T&H there were very few blank ballots--60 or so plus 50 overvotes.  There was some suggestion that angry Tories would vote blank, but they didn't.
If you’re pissed off enough to not be willing to vote for anybody else, then you almost certainly just stay home. This is especially true for by-elections.

They may have had postal votes, I’ve known people who want to abstain but already had postals to send in blank ballots.
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YL
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« Reply #1507 on: June 25, 2022, 04:51:31 PM »

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

It really depends whether it reaches the recall threshold or not.  If it doesn’t I doubt there will be a by-election (compare Leicester East) but I don’t think the Tories will try funny business to avoid a recall again after the Paterson farce.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1508 on: June 26, 2022, 03:56:00 AM »

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

The traditional thing after a big byelection upset is to project the results nationally as Peter Snow's "just a bit of fun" - Tiverton/Honiton would have an almost total Tory wipeout outside three areas:

1) a belt through Lincolnshire into Fenland;
2) a ring of seats immediately to the north of the W Midlands;
3) a clutch on both sides of the Thames Estuary (ie Essex and Kent)

This is maybe a pretty good guide to the seats they could reasonably expect to hold in a byelection right now - the last bastions of Johnsonism.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1509 on: June 26, 2022, 04:10:49 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2022, 04:58:56 AM by DINGO Joe »

So when does Somerton and Frome likely become a by-election?  Or can the Tories actually stall it for a time?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1510 on: June 26, 2022, 04:48:11 AM »

Depends on what the relevant Commons committee finds.

A sufficiently severe sanction means the recall process kicks in (and the loophole that enabled Delyn MP Rob Roberts to evade justice there has now been closed)

And I don't think the Tories will try that Owen Paterson nonsense again.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1511 on: June 26, 2022, 05:18:52 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2022, 05:56:17 AM by DINGO Joe »




Well, he looks rather impatient awaiting his fate.
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Blair
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« Reply #1512 on: June 26, 2022, 06:15:34 AM »

These things take time though- so could be months or even a full year.

The biggest danger is an immediate and panicked resignation at the first sign of national attention or a backlash e.g Paterson and Tractor man.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1513 on: June 26, 2022, 06:32:14 AM »

That looks like a much easier LibDem win than North Shropshire or Tiverton.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1514 on: June 26, 2022, 06:53:13 AM »

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1515 on: June 26, 2022, 07:35:43 AM »

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.

It really doesn’t take much for the Lib Dems to recruit candidates, let alone 1 per constituency for something as rare as a by-election. There’s a huge bench of councillors to choose from, and that’s not even accounting for the age-old Lib Dem strategy of reaching out to a local worthy, typically a GP at the local doctor’s surgery, a community activist who saved the town hall from being demolished, or similar.

As long as there’s a candidate, and some hope of a victory (which is higher now than it’s been since nearly 2010), they’ll be able to find canvassing volunteers - especially if they’ve followed their typical recruiting model. I’ll confess, the only time I’ve ever directly contributed to an election beyond voting was back in the 2017 GE. I was actually a member of another party at the time, but the Lib Dems ran a councillor with near universal approval as their constituency candidate, and I was persuaded to quietly drop a bunch of leaflets off in my village. Even my Brexit-supporting father contributed.

Everyone knew how hard she had fought to save our village park from redevelopment, and how hard she had pushed for our local high school to be rebuilt, let alone her 100% attendance rate at local galas and fundraisers for causes like the Royal National Lifeboat Institution.

There’s a reason that we went from a wipeout to being the most marginal seat in the country in that election (with a margin of 3 votes). The Lib Dems picking a tiny introverted woman in her 70s as a first time parliamentary candidate made no sense on paper - but it did if you follow the adage “all politics is local” to its logical extreme.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1516 on: June 26, 2022, 07:37:11 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2022, 07:42:34 AM by Coldstream »

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.

If they hadn’t won 3 in a row, maybe. As of now, why exactly would they get fatigued? This is what they live for and it’s working - and it’s working better than it has for decades. Not since they won 5 in 13 months 72-73 have they had such a run.
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Blair
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« Reply #1517 on: June 26, 2022, 08:18:55 AM »

I don't know how much of it was spent/wasted in 2019 but the party also has a lot more money than they once did.

They're also in a much healthier state as a party than they were in the coalition years; both in terms of the size & also the make up of its membership. I mean what reason would you have to campaign for the Lib-Dems in 2015?
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« Reply #1518 on: June 26, 2022, 08:41:20 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2022, 08:46:46 AM by c r a b c a k e »

If there is an election in Somerton, it's also worth noting that Lib Dems are particularly enthused in Somerset, winning the recent unitary election there.

As for the MP That Must Not Be Named, his constituency is borderline - was ancestrally a swing seat but boundary changes and demographics have shifted enough that I don't think Labour would have the votes to win outside of a total Tory turnout collapse.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #1519 on: June 26, 2022, 11:10:48 AM »

If there is an election in Somerton, it's also worth noting that Lib Dems are particularly enthused in Somerset, winning the recent unitary election there.

As for the MP That Must Not Be Named, his constituency is borderline - was ancestrally a swing seat but boundary changes and demographics have shifted enough that I don't think Labour would have the votes to win outside of a total Tory turnout collapse.

If you’re talking about Rees-Mogg, you’re wrong. Labour won the seat in last years local elections.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1520 on: June 26, 2022, 11:14:33 AM »

Ah now I think she means a different Honourable Member, one who cast his vote in the recent VONC in Johnson remotely.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1521 on: June 26, 2022, 12:54:08 PM »

Is there a chance the Lib-Dem By-election machine might start getting fatigued ?, the supply of new activist seems rather top heavy and I don't think they're recruiting that many new ones given the anemic polling numbers.

With regards to Somerton, as noted, they won in recent local elections in Somerset, the Lib-Dems have already chosen their candidate for the "next" election, and they're literally next door to T&H.  If the situation with the current MP had happened to be at the petition phase already, they probably would have collected enough signatures just driving back from T&H.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #1522 on: June 26, 2022, 01:43:24 PM »

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

The traditional thing after a big byelection upset is to project the results nationally as Peter Snow's "just a bit of fun" - Tiverton/Honiton would have an almost total Tory wipeout outside three areas:

1) a belt through Lincolnshire into Fenland;
2) a ring of seats immediately to the north of the W Midlands;
3) a clutch on both sides of the Thames Estuary (ie Essex and Kent)

This is maybe a pretty good guide to the seats they could reasonably expect to hold in a byelection right now - the last bastions of Johnsonism.


Seems telling that if the UK had a stronger far right populist party, these are presumably the kinds of seats they’d win. Goes to show what the Tories have increasingly become (hopefully to their ultimate detriment).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1523 on: June 26, 2022, 02:00:52 PM »

1) a belt through Lincolnshire into Fenland;
2) a ring of seats immediately to the north of the W Midlands;
3) a clutch on both sides of the Thames Estuary (ie Essex and Kent)

This is maybe a pretty good guide to the seats they could reasonably expect to hold in a byelection right now - the last bastions of Johnsonism.

I'm honestly not sure about all of these in a by-election situation right now, given the temptation to give Johnson a kicking which even a lot of pretty loyal Conservatives feel. You'd just likely be dealing with very tight results rather than blowouts...
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1524 on: June 26, 2022, 02:10:00 PM »

The traditional thing after a big byelection upset is to project the results nationally as Peter Snow's "just a bit of fun" - Tiverton/Honiton would have an almost total Tory wipeout outside three areas:

1) a belt through Lincolnshire into Fenland;
2) a ring of seats immediately to the north of the W Midlands;
3) a clutch on both sides of the Thames Estuary (ie Essex and Kent)

This is maybe a pretty good guide to the seats they could reasonably expect to hold in a byelection right now - the last bastions of Johnsonism.
Seems telling that if the UK had a stronger far right populist party, these are presumably the kinds of seats they’d win. Goes to show what the Tories have increasingly become (hopefully to their ultimate detriment).
It’s certainly true that these would be among the best areas for a far right populist party, but I’m not sure it says too much about the current Conservative Party. They held many of these areas even in 1997 (or gained them back in 2001/2005), it’s more that Labour and the Lib Dems are just not an attractive option to these sorts of voters so they go Conservative by default even if not totally happily. Poorer agricultural areas and ‘White Van Man’ territory have had an almost uninterrupted trend to the Conservatives since the mid 20th century. Funnily enough, Dartford (35% Conservative majority) is the UK longest running bellweather since 1964. Would very likely vote Conservative in a by-election even now.
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