UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1389628163320393729

Could just be expectation management, considering Boris Johnson apparently doesn't expect to win (again, also expectation management)? Though if true, I would place more stock in that than the Survation poll.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1389628163320393729

Could just be expectation management, considering Boris Johnson apparently doesn't expect to win (again, also expectation management)? Though if true, I would place more stock in that than the Survation poll.

How much do you trust this?

[Coldstream]

https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1389628163320393729

Could just be expectation management, considering Boris Johnson apparently doesn't expect to win (again, also expectation management)? Though if true, I would place more stock in that than the Survation poll.

Anyone who has ever canvassed in seats outside of major campaign areas (London, Bristol, Exeter etc) knows how worthless the promise rate is. They don’t get canvassed enough and a lot of it will be people saying they’d vote Labour in 2015 or before, they could have voted Tory twice since then. Sure the Tories could still win, but this is hardly damning for Labour (as the article admits).

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think Tories favoured in Hartlepool but lets remember most polls predicted Brexit party would take Peterborough and Labour held it (lost Tories in general election).  Still would be a blow to Keir Starmer showing still trouble in Red Wall.  Nonetheless Boris has received a strong bounce due to successful vaccine roll out so in some ways is probably at high water mark.  Labour has a long way to go before returning to office but how recovery and Brexit goes is probably going to decide 2024 so polls right now are largely meaningless for next election.  

That being said both parties have advantages and disadvantages

Tory advantage: They have far more safe seats than Labour and pretty much have 250 seats in the bag without doing anything while Labour has only around 150-160 in the bag so strong head start.

Labour advantage: Labour doesn't need to win most seats, just ensure Tories + Unionist parties have less than half the seats as SNP and Liberal Democrats have already ruled out propping up Tories.

Tory disadvantage: Will have been in power for 14 years and generally most parties when in office that long face voter fatigue and desire for change stronger.

Labour disadvantage: Are pretty much dead in Scotland and without Scotland and 40 seats they got prior to 2015, their path to 326 extremely difficult.  Means winning in normally safe Tory seats like consistuency of Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Stunning how much things have changed since 2014:

Up until the Thatcher years, the Conservatives had an easier path to a majority, but not because Britain was a right-leaning country.  Southern England was the Tory base, while the Labour base was located mainly in Wales and Northern England.  Scotland was a swing region, but nevertheless delivered a good chunk of seats for the Tories.  Gerrymandering also played a factor in giving Labour a hard time mustering a majority.

Post-Thatcher, Scottish Tories were essentially obliterated by Labour.  With the Tory base reduced to only Southern England, Labour had gained the upper hand.  Today, Labour has an easier path to a majority, not because Britain has become a left-leaning country.  Rather, regional strength and Labour gerrymandering prevents a Conservative majority unless there is a massive swing.

[Geoffrey Howe]

OK, one day before Hartlepool shall we do an Atlas 'head count' for who people think is going to win?

I don't know enough about polling to have any confident prediction for Hartlepool, but I would be surprised if it fell to the Tories. So for me:

Hartlepool: Labour
West Midlands: Conservative
Tees Valley: Conservative
London: Labour
Scotland: SNP largest party

[CumbrianLefty]

There is an argument the West of England and West Yorkshire mayor contests are at least as vital as Tees Valley, and both could be bright spots for Labour.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mostly blind guessing here.
Hartlepool: Lab
West Midlands: Con
Tees Valley Con
London: Lab
Scotland: SNP largest party

[Cassius]

There is an argument the West of England and West Yorkshire mayor contests are at least as vital as Tees Valley, and both could be bright spots for Labour.

I suppose this rather depends on how they win those contests. Labour can win the West of England just by running up the numbers in Bristol (where they underperformed a bit in the 2017 mayoral race), but that hardly indicates progress since the last election given that they won all the Bristol seats comfortably in 2019 (they even got a bigger majority in North West, the one real Labour-Tory marginal). Similar thing with West Yorkshire, although in fairness they did perform quite a bit worse there in 2019 than in 2017, so perhaps it will be more interesting. All depends on where Labour win, not just if they win.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mostly blind guessing here.
Hartlepool: Lab
West Midlands: Con
Tees Valley Lab
London: Lab
Scotland: SNP largest party

That really would be a *far* bigger shock than Labour holding Hartlepool.

(in truth, they are more likely to win W Mids - and that is a longish shot)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mostly blind guessing here.
Hartlepool: Lab
West Midlands: Con
Tees Valley Lab
London: Lab
Scotland: SNP largest party

That really would be a *far* bigger shock than Labour holding Hartlepool.

(in truth, they are more likely to win W Mids - and that is a longish shot)

Yeah, just actually researched about that one and Labour's internals showed them at...low 30s back in January.
I'm reversing that. That'll happen when the moon turns purple.
I wanted to place a bet on an upset win somewhere, but this was too far a bridge for me.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Scotland: SNP largest party

Probably more interesting to ask 1) if they'll get a majority on their own, 2) who'll come second, 3) does Alba get in.

(ftr, my answers would probably have to be 1) yes 2) Tories 3) Salmond himself will probably make it but no one else)

[Geoffrey Howe]

Scotland: SNP largest party

Probably more interesting to ask 1) if they'll get a majority on their own, 2) who'll come second, 3) does Salmond get in.

(ftr, my answers would be 1) probably 2) Tories 3) yes, just, but that'll probably be Alba's only seat)

Yes it would be more interesting. Don't know whether they'll get a majority on their own. Too close for comfort certainly. I read on electoralcalculus that Alba doing well would benefit the nationalists rather than the unionists, but it was quite late so I can't remember the maths behind that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone who has ever canvassed in seats outside of major campaign areas (London, Bristol, Exeter etc) knows how worthless the promise rate is. They don’t get canvassed enough and a lot of it will be people saying they’d vote Labour in 2015 or before, they could have voted Tory twice since then. Sure the Tories could still win, but this is hardly damning for Labour (as the article admits).

Similar stories have floated around before other by-elections - including Oldham West & Royton - and generally it isn't indicative of anything much. One issue also is simply that turnout in by-elections is generally rather low.

[Oryxslayer]

if we are doing predictions, then I guess here's mine as an observer who has been off-and-on watching the UK and Scotland since 2017:

London: Lab Hold
Cambridgeshire & Peterborough: Con Hold
Greater Manchester: Lab Hold
Liverpool Region: Lab Hold
Tees Valley: Con Hold
West Midlands: Con Hold
West of England: Lab Gain
West Yorkshire: New Lab Gain

Scotland: SNP in First (Duh), lack a majority. SNP+Green majority. Labour does better than expected and wins more than the 3 constituency seats from 2016. Alba wins 1 seat max.

Wales: Labour in first. Conservatives gain a number of their 2019 flips in the north, Con+PC will have a mathematical but politically incompatible Majority. Lab+PC government in some form. Abolish wins a seat.

Hartlepool: Con marginal Gain.

Councilors: Good number of Lab gains and Tory losses, but not to an overwhelming degree. Continued Green improvement similar to 2019, but not on the same level. Generally reflects the mixed political situation presently: the Tory party has benefited from the vaccine program, but Boris Johnson is a sleazy PM. Some proportion of voters will separate the local party from the leader, some will not, and this division prevents a clear Labour surge or a clear Conservative rebuff.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though the likeliest Tory gain in Wales isn't anywhere in the N, but the Vale of Glamorgan.

Missing out on that could be a sign they are failing to meet expectations overall.

[ElectionObserver]

Though the likeliest Tory gain in Wales isn't anywhere in the N, but the Vale of Glamorgan.

Missing out on that could be a sign they are failing to meet expectations overall.

How Labour have clung on so many times, I don't know. It's been a marginal in every election since 1999, with 2007 and 2016 being so incredibly close. It has been held by the Conservatives in Westminster since 2010. Though the Tories have never had a big majority in Westminster and it was actually pretty small both 2017 and 2019.

IMO the Conservatives best chances in order are
1 - Vale of Clwyd.
2 - Vale of Glamorgan.
3 - Brecon and Radnor.
4 - Wrexham.
5 - Clwyd South.
Three in the north, one the south and one the middle. The first three I think are likely gains, but I am not too sure after that.
Their most vulnerable seat, Aberconwy, is also in the north though.

[Geoffrey Howe]

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.

[Cassius]

Given the #trends I’d think a number of other Welsh seats are more likely to fall to the Tories than the Vale, especially given the party’s anemic performance there in 2019 (although that could’ve been partly due to the scandal Alun Cairns became embroiled in mid campaign). Expecting Jane Huttdini to cling on there again.

See also Cardiff North, which used to be one of the party’s better Welsh prospects but was actually lost by.a larger margin in 2019 than 2017. The Vale is similar (although more rural), in the sense that it’s a commuter belt kind of seat, and the Tories have generally performed underwhelmingly in those for the last few years.

[Lord Halifax]

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.

Would that help Labour in Hartlepool? (more committed core support, Tories more reliant on swing voters).

[Geoffrey Howe]

If the weather is like it is today in rainy London, that might not be good for turnout. BBC Weather says drizzling all day.

Would that help Labour in Hartlepool? (more committed core support, Tories more reliant on swing voters).

Insofar as it will have an impact, I suspect so.

[Conservatopia]

Predictions would be better off in the main thread but hey ho:

Hartlepool: Labour HOLD by 4%.  Novelty parties go nowhere.

London: Khan 48% First Round, >60% Second Round
Tees Valley: Houchenslide, Conservatives HOLD with >55%
West Mids: Conservatives HOLD by 3%
West Yorks: Labour
West of England: Labour GAIN

Wales: Labour down. Cons, Plaid up.  Abolish gets 3 seats.
Scotland: SNP 2 seats short, Cons 2nd, Alba no seats

England councils: Cons down slightly, Labour up slightly, Greens, LD, Indys up a bit.  Bit of a wash overall.

Media Narrative: Tories in turmoil after missed opportunities

[Geoffrey Howe]

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

[beesley]

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

Nobody is required to bring their own pencil, it is just encouraged.

[ElectionObserver]

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

You don't need to. It's just recommended.

For those who don't bring a pen, rather than having pencils in the voting booth, pencils will be given to voters and disinfected between each use.

People will also be asked to use alcohol gel on entry and exit, to wear a mask, and to maintain social distancing in polling stations.

[Geoffrey Howe]

We shall see. How many people will be caught out by the fact they need to bring their own pencil to the polling station?

Nobody is required to bring their own pencil, it is just encouraged.

You’re allowed to use a pen aren’t you?