UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 74630 times)
DINGO Joe
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« Reply #1450 on: June 23, 2022, 11:25:05 PM »

I see Jayda has hit a new low of irrelevance
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afleitch
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« Reply #1451 on: June 24, 2022, 12:58:19 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 01:05:43 AM by afleitch »

29.9% straight swing. Historically this is very high but not as high as North Shropshire. It is worth noting that two of the four biggest by-election swings from the Tories to the Liberals have happened this parliament.
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Blair
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« Reply #1452 on: June 24, 2022, 01:39:06 AM »

Oh my god the Tories can’t find anyone to do their morning broadcast round as Dowden (Tory Party Chair) has quit over the results.
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Blair
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« Reply #1453 on: June 24, 2022, 01:44:27 AM »

My first thought was that Wakefield could have been a lot worse for them.

It was a very good result for Labour, but wasn’t as much of a blowout as Tiverton. I expect the Independent candidate (an ex Tory Cllr who won a Labour ward in the locals) who got 8% meant there wasn’t as a huge lead for Labour.

But if you said a Labour majority of virtually 5K at the start of the race Labour would be happy and it is the historic vote share the party has got since the 2000s- I imagine it is a very different coalition though!
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Blair
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« Reply #1454 on: June 24, 2022, 01:45:41 AM »

Well it’s a take!

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YL
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« Reply #1455 on: June 24, 2022, 02:14:14 AM »

Well it’s a take!



A particularly interesting take given that @labour is the Irish Labour Party.
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Blair
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« Reply #1456 on: June 24, 2022, 02:17:36 AM »

I still think they should have split the by-elections- if they had Wakefield first it would have been easier to spin but two on one night makes it’s easier to box off bullsh**t excuses.

They’re trying to argue that Labours swing was too small, but the much larger liberal swing doesn’t matter…

Raab in on Radio 4 jabbering about a pact between the two parties- a bit late for that.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1457 on: June 24, 2022, 02:47:37 AM »

So Labour’s vote-share in Wakefield appears to believe  the best it’s been since the national landslide of 2001, and they have the largest numerical majority they’ve had since 2005 (on a much smaller turnout).

Meanwhile the Lib Dems became the first non-Tory party to win the land around T&H since the 19th century,  before the universal franchise and existence of the Labour Party.

Big night.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1458 on: June 24, 2022, 03:02:16 AM »

Lib-Demmanium!
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YL
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« Reply #1459 on: June 24, 2022, 03:07:08 AM »

Meanwhile the Lib Dems became the first non-Tory party to win the land around T&H since the 19th century,  before the universal franchise and existence of the Labour Party.

Just the land around Honiton: the Tiverton constituency voted Liberal twice in 1923, once in a by-election and once (by three votes) in the General Election later in the year.

Honiton itself was a Parliamentary Borough until 1868 and had Whig/Liberal MPs, though it always had a Tory as well.  The surrounding countryside, however, including the coastal towns, was in the South Devon division which was Tory from 1835.  Areas now in the East Devon constituency (most of that constituency, actually, except the bits in the City of Exeter) retain the record.

I don't know why this area is so ancestrally Tory; was it very Anglican by West Country standards?
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TheTide
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« Reply #1460 on: June 24, 2022, 03:07:41 AM »

There's a polling phenomenon that was once prevalent but seems to have died a death: the Lib Dems getting a major surge after an upset by-election win. Didn't happen after North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham etc and presumably won't happen now. Another one is the party conference bounce. Neither by-elections nor party conferences are treated as the big deal by the media that they used to be so this perhaps isn't surprising.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1461 on: June 24, 2022, 03:27:04 AM »

There's a polling phenomenon that was once prevalent but seems to have died a death: the Lib Dems getting a major surge after an upset by-election win. Didn't happen after North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham etc and presumably won't happen now. Another one is the party conference bounce. Neither by-elections nor party conferences are treated as the big deal by the media that they used to be so this perhaps isn't surprising.

In the year since the Chesham an Amersham by-election, the Liberal Democrats have gone from around 7% to 13% in the polls.
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Blair
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« Reply #1462 on: June 24, 2022, 03:38:09 AM »

I’m very bored of people thinking they’re smart and alternative by saying these results are fine because Thatcher and Major lost by-elections.

So did Brown and Callaghan…
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Cassius
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« Reply #1463 on: June 24, 2022, 03:40:44 AM »

There's a polling phenomenon that was once prevalent but seems to have died a death: the Lib Dems getting a major surge after an upset by-election win. Didn't happen after North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham etc and presumably won't happen now. Another one is the party conference bounce. Neither by-elections nor party conferences are treated as the big deal by the media that they used to be so this perhaps isn't surprising.

I think it’s also the case that whilst people are happy to treat the Lib Dems as a receptacle for protest/tactical votes in by-elections, the party’s participation in the Coalition and subsequent attitude towards the EU debate have put a fairly hard ceiling on the party’s national polling prospects - they can no longer be all things to all people.

That said, as Frank pointed out they have drifted upwards into the low teens over the last six months, which presumably is the result of them peeling off a segment of ‘liberal’ Tories who were previously willing to give Johnson the benefit of the doubt.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1464 on: June 24, 2022, 04:05:02 AM »
« Edited: June 24, 2022, 04:56:09 AM by CumbrianLefty »

Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 84

Not the most important result from Wakefield, but still - LOL.

(which of course hasn't stopped their online claque saying what a terrible Labour result it was)
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1465 on: June 24, 2022, 04:48:17 AM »

The efficiency of the LD votes in by-elections this Parliament is remarkable. In every by-election that they've stood in, they've either won or lost their deposit. More than 95% of votes cast for LDs in by-elections have gone to winning candidates. This is utterly unprecedented.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1466 on: June 24, 2022, 04:57:48 AM »

Pro-Labour swing in Wakefield just beat that of Corby in 2012.

Given the less than auspicious start to their campaign there, I think they will take that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1467 on: June 24, 2022, 05:18:21 AM »

They’re trying to argue that Labours swing was too small

Which is hilarious as a 12.8pt swing is very large. I see they're sticking to the deranged like from Jenkyns on the night that a swing has to be 17.5pts (LOL) or it doesn't count. Amazing levels of cope.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1468 on: June 24, 2022, 05:32:55 AM »

Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 84

Not the most important result from Wakefield, but still - LOL.

(which of course hasn't stopped their online claque saying what a terrible Labour result it was)
My favourite NIP stat is that their “vote NIP” tweet got more likes than they got votes in Wakefield, which tells you all you need to know…
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1469 on: June 24, 2022, 06:02:25 AM »

"Worst Labour result in Wakefield since 1931" is the deathless take of Very Online Left Twitter.
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YL
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« Reply #1470 on: June 24, 2022, 06:26:52 AM »

It wouldn't be a Lib Dem by-election gain without a stunt the following day


(picture from the Guardian)
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Blair
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« Reply #1471 on: June 24, 2022, 07:03:32 AM »

Should have driven an orange tractor through a blue wall.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1472 on: June 24, 2022, 07:23:28 AM »

I had no idea how monumental this by-election result is in the context of UK election history.  

The constituency of Tiverton and Honiton has existed in current form since 1997 (with the merger of separate constituencies of Tiverton / Honiton).  

As others have noted, Tiverton had been represented by a Conservative MP since 1924 (or 1931, depending on party label).  

The region of Honiton had returned a Conservative MP since 1885.  We're talking pre-Jack-the-Ripper days (1888).  
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Blair
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« Reply #1473 on: June 24, 2022, 09:04:31 AM »

We have a new line from the Conservatives!

They only lost because Conservative voters stayed at home.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1474 on: June 24, 2022, 09:08:40 AM »

We have a new line from the Conservatives!

They only lost because Conservative voters stayed at home.

New? That "line" is genuinely as old as the hills Wink

(and the lower turnout in more left leaning Wakefield suggests the opposite if anything)
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