UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election  was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

[Tintrlvr]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election  was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

No, it's a very different seat from the sorts of seats the Tories are losing in by-elections and would be one of the last seats specifically Boris Johnson's Tories would lose even if they were headed for a near-total wipeout.

[JimJamUK]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

Weird things can happen when a government is hideously unpopular, but that’s one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and Labour are the clear but distant challengers, so very probably not.

[adma]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

Weird things can happen when a government is hideously unpopular, but that’s one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and Labour are the clear but distant challengers, so very probably not.

Had Ted Heath died in office prior to the '97 election, it could well have flipped Labour *then*.  But, that was then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Old Bexley and Sidcup by election  was being held right now. Would the conservatives be likely to loose it ?

I don't think we're yet at that point, but there's a chance the majority might have fallen to around two thousand votes or so, which would have certainly looked bad.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Conservatives won every ward covering the seat in last month's local elections. Labour were close to sneaking the last seat in East Wickham, but only part of that is in the constituency.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though given that, the Tory lead over Labour in the PV there was relatively modest - roughly 49% to 33%. The wards are remarkably uniform in several respects, including electorally.

[JimJamUK]

Though given that, the Tory lead over Labour in the PV there was relatively modest - roughly 49% to 33%. The wards are remarkably uniform in several respects, including electorally.

Speaking of Bexley ward boundaries, in 2002 Labour won a majority on the council despite only getting 33% of the vote and trailing the Conservative by 9%. A good reminder if ever that the headline seat numbers/changes should not be used synonymously with popular support!

[Blair]

FWIW the canvass data doesn’t include postal votes.

You’d expect these in a GE to favour the Conservatives but both Lib Dem and Labour rely on them heavily in by-elections.

Yeah this is an interesting situation because, unlike North Shropshire or even more so Chesham & Amersham, there's no sense that the Conservatives have been caught napping here: they're throwing the kitchen sink at the place. Which means a very different dynamic. LibDems putting out the obvious tactical squeeze message tells us they think it's competitive, but we all assumed that anyway!

And unlike Chesham there isn’t HS2 or planning as a local issue to really annoy local conservatives. I’ve also noticed that ambitious Conservative cllrs, activists are going to Tiverton- they didn’t go to Shropshire!

I still deep down expect a Liberal win but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Conservatives hold it and the takes will be ridiculous.

[Blair]

This is why by-elections are great. Would a US special Election for TX-98 have something this hilarious?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1537448702016737280

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1537439707818209280?s=20&t=mZngtFb2Xnd...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

issuing correction on a previous post of mine, regarding the serial killer Dr Harold Shipman. you do not, under any circumstances, "gotta hand it to him"

[EastAnglianLefty]

Unless "it" is a substantial bequest from your will, in which case you didn't have very much choice in the matter.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

This is why by-elections are great. Would a US special Election for TX-98 have something this hilarious?

https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1537448702016737280

If Texas had 98 or more districts, the US would have more than a thousands districts and you'd get some real whackso running for them. Ironicaly even with that, the average US congrssional district would be more than 3 times more populous than the the average westminster constituency.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yes, you can see what he was *trying* to say. But really!

[Torrain]

Helen Hurford appeared at the Tiverton and Honiton hustings last night. She tried to spin a question about Johnson’s character into a list of successes (vaccine rollout, Ukraine), and was roundly jeered.

A hustings may not be a representative sample of the populace, but man, that was the kind of hostile anti-Tory room you’d expect from Scottish politics, not Devon.

Apologies for the clickbait-looking link to the footage - the only non-paywalled video I could find was from Guido Fawkes.

[Blair]

One of her leaflets is circulating on Twitter and not only is there no Boris on it but there’s no Conservative branding at all- even last year they were still making an effort to keep the party branding.

Shows how toxic they are and the sane people running the campaigns know this, while the headless gulls in Westminster have no idea.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ordinary people who are not particularly political make jokes at his expense quite frequently now. That's... not a good situation to be in.

[Continential]

https://twitter.com/proftimbale/status/1538055904653987842When was the last time before this year the Tories used green on their branding?

[afleitch]

I think we fall into the trap of thinking dislike of Boris isn't that bad because Starmer isn't Mr Charisma and doesn't poll as well (and neither does Labour) as some people would hope.

There's a lot of elasticity in the British electorate. Labour ran up 1997 shares in many seats in 2017 before hitting historic lows two years later. There are above average (historically) swings in a lot of by non marginal seats in opposing directions each election.

An absolute trouncing, even with a majority that looks formidable is entirely possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

[Blair]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

Yeah on reflection it was weird how expectation management & the extremely poor position of the Conservatives meant that this seat was seen on the day Parish resigned as a guaranteed Lib-Dem win- despite the fact they've never won this seat & it was a huge majority.

 

[Blair]

To think Batley was only a year ago...

https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1538124876594257921

[YL]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

Indeed, though of course hustings audiences aren't very representative of the constituency.  I doubt the pundits really know much.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

They have actually moved a little bit towards the Tories, but the Lib Dems are still clear favourites.  Not by as much as the Tories were in Chesham & Amersham, mind.

My guess is a Lib Dem win but by less than in North Shropshire.

[CumbrianLefty]

My hunch is it will either be a very comfortable LibDem win, or perhaps not a win at all.