UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170238 times)
Blair
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« Reply #1325 on: June 10, 2022, 03:26:31 AM »

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1326 on: June 10, 2022, 07:15:32 AM »

I think he did, yes?

One thing about T & H is that the Tory candidate - who appeared impressive on paper - has proved to be something of a liability on the campaign trail. Whereas the LibDems seem to have gone with pretty much the ideal choice for a potential mid-term protest such as this.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1327 on: June 10, 2022, 08:06:19 AM »

To be fair, it seems unclear if she's a liability because she's a bad candidate, or because the Tory by-election strategy is to hide the candidate and rely on national messages and any candidate will perform poorly when the national brand is mud.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1328 on: June 10, 2022, 08:12:30 AM »

I think he did, yes?

One thing about T & H is that the Tory candidate - who appeared impressive on paper - has proved to be something of a liability on the campaign trail. Whereas the LibDems seem to have gone with pretty much the ideal choice for a potential mid-term protest such as this.

What has she done that seems to make her a bad candidate?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1329 on: June 10, 2022, 09:07:10 AM »

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

A mildly interesting fact is that Prime Ministers never used to do campaign visits to constituencies holding by-elections. Blair breached this once (Beckenham) but it didn't work out, so never did again, and so things remained until May started making such trips normal and Johnson completely routine.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1330 on: June 10, 2022, 09:48:30 AM »

Blair also went to Eddisbury and Hamilton S in 1999 I think.

Nearly losing the latter caused him to give up on it, apparently.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1331 on: June 10, 2022, 09:55:34 AM »

Do visits by high profile figures tend to make much difference in by elections ?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1332 on: June 10, 2022, 10:12:37 AM »

Do visits by high profile figures tend to make much difference in by elections ?

Mr Tony was massively popular in the late 90s and his visits (CL was an adult at the time and will remember stuff that I won't, so we'll run with the plural here) made no difference to the results so...

Meanwhile, closer association with a bad result then becomes a risk.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1333 on: June 10, 2022, 10:45:08 AM »

For a while it was also the case that opposition leaders often stayed away from by-elections, for similar reasons. Cameron campaigning in the Ealing Southall by-election in 2008 was news for that reason.
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Blair
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« Reply #1334 on: June 10, 2022, 10:56:17 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2022, 12:12:05 PM by Blair »

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

A mildly interesting fact is that Prime Ministers never used to do campaign visits to constituencies holding by-elections. Blair breached this once (Beckenham) but it didn't work out, so never did again, and so things remained until May started making such trips normal and Johnson completely routine.

Another sex related by-election- a park bench was involved I believe!

Still weird Beckenham was very close- although actually the old boundary pre 2010 has a lot more of the well ‘south London’ wards rather than leafy stockbroker type wards.
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Blair
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« Reply #1335 on: June 10, 2022, 10:58:47 AM »

Do visits by high profile figures tend to make much difference in by elections ?

They use to (in the 70s and 80s- maybe early 90s) be much bigger affairs when they visited- daily press conferences, packed public halls and rallies and so forth- so it might have made a more marginal difference back then

Now says the visits are largely to show you’ve done it and get patted on the back- they often eat up time and energy that could be spent on other things..
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YL
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« Reply #1336 on: June 10, 2022, 11:10:44 AM »

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

A mildly interesting fact is that Prime Ministers never used to do campaign visits to constituencies holding by-elections. Blair breached this once (Beckenham) but it didn't work out, so never did again, and so things remained until May started making such trips normal and Johnson completely routine.

Another sex related by-election- a park bench was involved I believe!

Still weird Beckenham was every close- although actually the old boundary pre 2010 has a lot more of the well ‘south London’ wards rather than leafy stockbroker type wards.

The currently proposed new Beckenham, which is quite similar to the version pre 2010, has a notional Tory majority of 431 per Electoral Calculus.
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Continential
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« Reply #1337 on: June 10, 2022, 11:12:33 AM »

I found this cool website which has a lot of byelection leaflets from 1945 to 2010ish for those interested in reading historical by election leaflets/campaign messages.
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Blair
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« Reply #1338 on: June 10, 2022, 01:55:29 PM »

Hahahah oh I miss New Labour.

Chartered Accountant working for One North-East. Born in Hartlepool and educated at Manor Comprehensive School. Member of Hartlepool Borough Council for Rift House ward from 2002. Cabinet Member for Performance Management. Member of the GMB. Member of the North East Regional Board of the Labour Party.

The main themes of his campaign were:

'Shop-a-yob' to combat crime and anti-social behavior.

Lives here, went to school here, works here, uses the local hospital.

Stop 'Jody come lately' - remember her insult to the town.

Election literature available:

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YL
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« Reply #1339 on: June 10, 2022, 02:57:55 PM »

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1340 on: June 11, 2022, 05:19:36 AM »

To be fair, it seems unclear if she's a liability because she's a bad candidate, or because the Tory by-election strategy is to hide the candidate and rely on national messages and any candidate will perform poorly when the national brand is mud.

I understand that she has now released a, shall we say, "interesting" video.
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Blair
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« Reply #1341 on: June 12, 2022, 03:15:58 PM »

I still don’t understand how the prospect of losing Tiverton isn’t causing more a panic- I mean what will the spin be when you lose a by election that had a 25K majority and no local issues?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1342 on: June 12, 2022, 07:29:20 PM »

I still don’t understand how the prospect of losing Tiverton isn’t causing more a panic- I mean what will the spin be when you lose a by election that had a 25K majority and no local issues?
“The midterms are always poor for the government, the Lib Dems always do well at by-elections, another poor performance by Labour, the people opposed to Boris need to stop the infighting etc”.
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Blair
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« Reply #1343 on: June 13, 2022, 03:38:08 AM »

I still don’t understand how the prospect of losing Tiverton isn’t causing more a panic- I mean what will the spin be when you lose a by election that had a 25K majority and no local issues?
“The midterms are always poor for the government, the Lib Dems always do well at by-elections, another poor performance by Labour, the people opposed to Boris need to stop the infighting etc”.

Ha CCHQ will be calling!

I think having it on the same day will make it worse especially if Labour win by more than 3-4K- as it negates the second talking point.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1344 on: June 14, 2022, 09:05:37 AM »

Hahahah oh I miss New Labour.

Chartered Accountant working for One North-East. Born in Hartlepool and educated at Manor Comprehensive School. Member of Hartlepool Borough Council for Rift House ward from 2002. Cabinet Member for Performance Management. Member of the GMB. Member of the North East Regional Board of the Labour Party.

The main themes of his campaign were:

'Shop-a-yob' to combat crime and anti-social behavior.

Lives here, went to school here, works here, uses the local hospital.

Stop 'Jody come lately' - remember her insult to the town.

Election literature available:



Ah those were the days indeed. That byelection probably influenced how Labour treated the rerun last year, despite all that had changed in the interim.
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TheTide
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« Reply #1345 on: June 15, 2022, 10:56:49 AM »

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JimJamUK
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« Reply #1346 on: June 15, 2022, 11:41:06 AM »

If that 'poll' is to be believed then the Lib Dem by-election machine has made absolutely no dent in the Conservative vote (the Conservatives are at 75% of their 2019 vote share in this poll and national polling), yet they have massively squeezed the Labour vote despite Labour doing better nationally.

More likely, the Lib Dems have produced a 'poll' (or as the article states, canvassing returns) that shows them close and Labour dead in the water in order to encourage tactical voting and make sure their activists don't take anything for granted.
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Logical
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« Reply #1347 on: June 15, 2022, 11:42:25 AM »



Peak Lib Dem "internal". Claim they are behind but within striking distance that tactical votes and favorable turnout will put them over the top.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1348 on: June 15, 2022, 12:01:18 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2022, 12:18:57 PM by Oryxslayer »

Yeah this smells like strategy, given that both of their previous internal polls for the by-elections they won underestimated their support and seemed designed to focus the electorate/narrative.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #1349 on: June 15, 2022, 12:14:08 PM »

I pointed out during the North Shropshire campaign that the Lib Dems only release internal "polls" when they are confident that they are going to win. I think that continues to hold true.

Also this is expectation-setting to try to counter the narrative that a Lib Dem victory is a foregone conclusion.
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