UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Blair]

It's being reported that the writs for both by-elections will be moved tomorrow, which means 23 June for polling day.

A lot sooner than I thought. Interesting.

[YL]

It's being reported that the writs for both by-elections will be moved tomorrow, which means 23 June for polling day.

A lot sooner than I thought. Interesting.

With T & H I suspect they think their best chance is to have it ASAP so the Lib Dems have less time to develop momentum, though that might be wishful thinking, and with Wakefield there was already adverse comment about how long the seat had been left effectively vacant for.  Delaying by-elections unnecessarily seems to be out of fashion at the moment.

[Conservatopia]

I wonder if the date of 23 June holds any kind of symbolic significance that the Tories could desperately point to...

[Torrain]

I wonder if the date of 23 June holds any kind of symbolic significance that the Tories could desperately point to...

Ah - that’s both the day the EU referendum was held, and the date Johnson announced a significant rollback of COVID restrictions in 2020. You think they’d really try and pull the Farage “Freedom/Independence Day” card?

They really would have to be desperate…

[CumbrianLefty]

No way that could possibly backfire on them, either.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder if the date of 23 June holds any kind of symbolic significance that the Tories could desperately point to...

Ah - that’s both the day the EU referendum was held, and the date Johnson announced a significant rollback of COVID restrictions in 2020. You think they’d really try and pull the Farage “Freedom/Independence Day” card?

They really would have to be desperate…

somehow I don't think visibly ripping open the brexit debate again is going to be very popular with voters who don't have a real die-hard stance on this issue.

[Joe Republic]

With the news of a rape arrest out today, we are presumably on track for yet another by-election in a Tory seat, although we don't know where just yet.  Shame it'll be too late to schedule it for June 23rd and have three on the same day (and all for the same sleazy reason).

I wondered how rare it is to have three by-elections on the same day, but I only had to go back to November 2012 to find not one but two instances (six by-elections overall!) all in the same month.

[YL]

With the news of a rape arrest out today, we are presumably on track for yet another by-election in a Tory seat, although we don't know where just yet.  Shame it'll be too late to schedule it for June 23rd and have three on the same day (and all for the same sleazy reason).

I wondered how rare it is to have three by-elections on the same day, but I only had to go back to November 2012 to find not one but two instances (six by-elections overall!) all in the same month.

On 9 June 1994 there were five, all rather dull except for Eastleigh.  On 23 January 1986 there were fifteen, but that was a special case.

Anyway, the justice process is slow enough that I think it's some time before we see a ******* by-election.  And of course even Tory MPs are innocent until proven guilty.

[beesley]

A rather rude hunch but wonder if this is a reaction to the fact he very much seemed the spare, rather than the heir on the shortlist.

Yeah, if there is genuine local anger at a stitch-up then it can result in support for the non-anointed candidate. The most obvious recent example of this being in Bassetlaw in 2019 where the national party blocked the very popular council leader from standing and instead shortlisted a far left councillor from elsewhere in Nottinghamshire, and a pro-remain former Camden councillor. Local members were so pissed they voted for the latter (of course this being a stitch-up, the NEC forced the Corbynista on them anyways).

Also Coventry North West - Taiwo Owatemi was the spare in about three other seats too before being selected here.

[beesley]

They still wouldn't be voting (official) Tory though would they - some of those types might stick with the party reluctantly if Parish doesn't run.

To put all this into context perhaps, bookies have the LibDems as clear favourites - which is still a bit remarkable when you look at the last GE result.

Well, by most measures it ought to be an easier gain for them than North Shropshire…

Wasn't the Lib Dem Canidate over there also pretty unremarkable beyond being a local?

Largely, but none of that mattered compared to the fact that the Tory was from Birmingham whereas she had local roots. How much that mattered is another thing, but yeah

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It wasn't so much that he was from Birmingham but that he managed to make it extremely clear that he had no interest in the constituency other than as a necessary requirement for a political career. He actually had some biographical details of the sort that could have been used to easily neutralise any quibbles about a parachuted candidacy (especially as Birmingham isn't that far away: most people in Shropshire are not that parochial.), all that army doctor stuff and so on; could have played very well in a constituency with military ties as significant, as overwhelming, as North Shropshire. But instead all people heard was a man who wanted to cut pensions and appeared not only to know nothing of the area, but to have no interest in ever doing anything to rectify that state of affairs. And this went down worse than it would have done in most places as historically the Conservative nomination had been controlled, informally but absolutely, by the NFU in North Shropshire - the candidates picked were never simple local farmers (usually they were very posh!), but were always people who could easily demonstrate that they understood the concerns of agriculture and the many industries locally dependent on it.

[CumbrianLefty]

With the news of a rape arrest out today, we are presumably on track for yet another by-election in a Tory seat, although we don't know where just yet.  Shame it'll be too late to schedule it for June 23rd and have three on the same day (and all for the same sleazy reason).

I wondered how rare it is to have three by-elections on the same day, but I only had to go back to November 2012 to find not one but two instances (six by-elections overall!) all in the same month.

Any resulting byelection could be "twinned" with Leicester East, if Webbe hangs on a while longer.

[YL]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

[Blair]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

[Tintrlvr]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

The town of Uffculme that he lives in certainly looks like the latter on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/bWddxWAfSUqh2Zuy5.

[EastAnglianLefty]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

The town of Uffculme that he lives in certainly looks like the latter on Google Maps: https://goo.gl/maps/bWddxWAfSUqh2Zuy5.

On the other hand, it's also less than 2 miles from the M5 and a railway station with a high-speed connection to London. There are plenty of farms in the seat, but it's not a particularly labour-intensive industry these days so agricultural workers will be comfortably outnumbered by people commuting to Exeter.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

Paddy "SAS" Ashdown's ghost would like a word.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

Military officers being Liberal Democrats is a sterotype ? I thought that was a solidly conservative group.

Paddy "SAS" Ashdown's ghost would like a word.

He was a spook, that's different.

[Blair]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

[YL]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

Speaking of the Yorkshire Party, the fairly prominent (in some circles anyway) former Tory David Herdson is standing for them.  UKIP also announced a candidate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

Speaking of the Yorkshire Party, the fairly prominent (in some circles anyway) former Tory David Herdson is standing for them.  UKIP also announced a candidate.

Beaten nearly 2 to 1 in what is often a fairly marginal Labour ward, maybe not the best omen.

[Torrain]

The Lib Dems have selected Richard Foord as their candidate for Tiverton & Honiton.  He lives in Uffculme, in the constituency, has an army background and stood for the party in North Somerset in 2017.

The Tories haven't announced their candidate yet.

Ofc because he’s a Lib Dem he was also a Major and part of the UN peacekeeping forces- he looks rather like the type of candidates the Tories use to cast.

He was pictured in front of a cow (subtle!) in the Telegraph but unsure if he’s a farmer too. Then again I don’t know if farming is simply a part of the constituency or the type of seat where every hustings has questions about milk quotas, grain prices and EU directive 1010192

I hadn't seen it until now. Man - this looks right out of CCHQ central casting. Put this image on a campaign leaflet, and I'd automatically assume Tory. Say what you will about Lib Dems, but their recruitment game is pretty good. From local GPs to this kind of thing, they seem to have a knack for decent seat-specific hires.

[Blair]

A marked contrast with the recent Tory by-election candidates!

[YL]

Nominations close for Wakefield next Wednesday and I haven’t even seen a discussion about who the Tory candidate is.

They announced a shortlist yesterday:
- Nadeem Ahmed, councillor for Wakefield South (not in the constituency) and former leader of the Tory group on Wakefield council;
- Laura Weldon, losing candidate recently in Wakefield West and formerly associated with the Yorkshire Party
- Tanya Graham, candidate for Bradford South in the 2015 and 2017 general elections.

According to "Armchair Critic" (who will know) in another place, they've selected Nadeem Ahmed.