UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually this raises an interesting question - will they want Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on the same day or a little apart? Get it all out of the way or stagger any blows?

Same day- I was going to say that Wakefield is the easier defence but that just shows how much my brain has been rotted by red wall discourse and how little faith I have in Labours by-election machine…

Given the circumstances of the vacancy, definitely not.

[YL]

Wakefield is finally officially vacant: Imran Ahmad Khan has been appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern.  The writ can't be moved until Parliament is sitting again, though.

[YL]

Wakefield is finally officially vacant: Imran Ahmad Khan has been appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern.  The writ can't be moved until Parliament is sitting again, though.

... and now "The Chancellor of the Exchequer has this day appointed Neil Quentin Gordon Parish to be Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead."  So Tiverton & Honiton is vacant too.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

[JimJamUK]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

Lets hope they don't encounter each other at the count tomorrow...

[Continential]

It is funny seeing the new Wakefield Yorkshire Party guy in voteuk interact with regulars.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

I find it interesting how it's escalated to threats of legal action and over the top hysterics about  personal safety and threats. A real tempest in a teacup.

[morgieb]

It is funny seeing the new Wakefield Yorkshire Party guy in voteuk interact with regulars.

I'm not sure if you know this, but the Tory candidate in Wakefield in 2017 is an ex-VoteUK member.

And according to Al was a massive POS.

[CumbrianLefty]

The result of Claudia Webbe's appeal against her conviction is due fairly soon, so its not impossible we could have three Westminster byelections in pretty quick succession.

[JimJamUK]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

Lets hope they don't encounter each other at the count tomorrow...

Update - One of the Lib Dem activists has posted that a newly elected Labour councillor got a restraining order against a fellow poster and Conservative councillor.

I am calling for a complete and total shutdown of Wakefield until we figure out what the hell is going on!

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The voteuk Wakefield thread is a real trip

It's quite funny when you realise quite how close to each other two of the main participants live. It's like neighbours ringing each other up to scream abuse down the phone...

Lets hope they don't encounter each other at the count tomorrow...

Update - One of the Lib Dem activists has posted that a newly elected Labour councillor got a restraining order against a fellow poster and Conservative councillor.

I am calling for a complete and total shutdown of Wakefield until we figure out what the hell is going on!

I hope that the good residents of Wakefield are aware of what their deputy council leader get's up to on an obscure psephology forum with other local canidates. I think a local paper should be informed about this.

[YL]

The result of Claudia Webbe's appeal against her conviction is due fairly soon, so its not impossible we could have three Westminster byelections in pretty quick succession.

Four, unless Jeffrey Donaldson decides to stay at Westminster and co-opt someone into his Assembly seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah yes, there were rumours of that months ago but it now looks set to actually go ahead given that the attempt to reprieve NI "double jobbing" failed.

[Blair]

Lol that leaflet.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnHealey_MP/status/1522944025954770944?ref_src=twsr...

[DL]

Didn’t I read that the local councils that fall in the Wakefield constituency voted Albour by a very wide margin on Thursday? That should be a good predictor of an easy Labour win here

[Oryxslayer]

Didn’t I read that the local councils that fall in the Wakefield constituency voted Albour by a very wide margin on Thursday? That should be a good predictor of an easy Labour win here

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1522710693572751360?s=20&t=ht31eD4...

The real question therefore will be if such a large margin repeats itself. Wakefield in 2019 was more of less even with the national labour-tory margin, Whether the swing back is larger or smaller than the national polling will help answer many questions.

[CumbrianLefty]

The (general) trend is for governments to do worse in Westminster byelections than polls suggest.

[Tintrlvr]

The result of Claudia Webbe's appeal against her conviction is due fairly soon, so its not impossible we could have three Westminster byelections in pretty quick succession.

Four, unless Jeffrey Donaldson decides to stay at Westminster and co-opt someone into his Assembly seat.

Maybe to avoid the embarrassment of being the first DUP Deputy First Minister?

I wonder if the Alliance could make a serious play for Lagan Valley in a by-election. The numbers don't feel like they are there, but if the UUP do just well enough, and there are enough nationalist tactical votes, maybe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The map shown there is of Wakefield district which is much larger than the constituency - and more Labour as well. The constituency is at its western end. Anyway, a comparison map between the 2021 and 2022 results would be more dramatic!

[JimJamUK]

The map shown there is of Wakefield district which is much larger than the constituency - and more Labour as well. The constituency is at its western end. Anyway, a comparison map between the 2021 and 2022 results would be more dramatic!

Yeah, it was IIRC a 5% Conservative lead last year so a 22% shift since then! The caveats are that 2021 saw a freak Conservative victory in Wakefield East while 2022 saw the Conservative incumbent splitting the vote as an independent in Wrenthorpe and Outwood West. Still, Wakefield seems the sort of place that swung disproportionately to Labour this year, and if the local MP being convicted of being a nonce had any extra negative impact then it’s hardly going to have any less in a by-election...

[CumbrianLefty]

Various local worthies now throwing their hats in the ring to be Labour's candidate in Wakefield.

[Blair]

Any hunches/guesses on when they have it?

If I was in Government I would want to be delaying it… hope Labours poll lead fades and time it with the Durham announcement just in that vague hope.

On reflection the whole process is mad- it should be easier to resign as an MP and it should simply be ‘X number of working days’ after you resignation is a the by-election date (with carve outs for holidays etc)

[Tintrlvr]

No by-election in Lagan Valley: Donaldson is staying in Westminster, and the DUP will be co-opting his seat at Stormont. Makes one wonder if the whole thing was just to make Edwin Poots sweat.

[Blair]

Reports that Neil Tractor Parish is thinking of standing as an independent and has raised funds.

Would be hilarious.