UK By-elections thread, 2021-
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Author Topic: UK By-elections thread, 2021-  (Read 170181 times)
CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1075 on: March 11, 2022, 08:07:18 AM »

In some actual potential by-election news, Claudia Webbe's appeal against her conviction has now been delayed until May. Quite possible that Labour might have preferred any poll to be held along with the local elections that month.
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Blair
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« Reply #1076 on: April 04, 2022, 01:06:08 PM »

I hear houses are nice in Somerton.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1077 on: April 04, 2022, 01:46:00 PM »

As well as Mr Warburton's sex and drugs and russian cheques, further bad news for people named "Imran Khan" as the trial of the Wakefield MP continues, with a separate accusation of rape in Pakistan being brought up, and an admission of discussing pornography with minors. Why exactly this Tory intake is so rife with closet cases who seem to be driven into lunacy is a bit of a mystery - it's not like the seats they were selected for were no-hopers, like when Labour didn't bother screening anybody in 2017 and ended up with Onasayna and Jared.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1078 on: April 04, 2022, 02:09:29 PM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1079 on: April 05, 2022, 12:34:28 PM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1080 on: April 05, 2022, 07:46:04 PM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.
Wait what ?
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1081 on: April 07, 2022, 05:37:05 AM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.

I would definitely be ensuring we had the capacity to run a snap by-election campaign in Heywood & Middleton, just in case.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1082 on: April 07, 2022, 05:55:29 AM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.
Wait what ?

I think the poster of that is themselves an occasional contributor Smiley
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #1083 on: April 07, 2022, 06:25:46 AM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.
Wait what ?

I think the poster of that is themselves an occasional contributor Smiley
I was wondering about the voteukt connection to the Wakefield controversy
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1084 on: April 07, 2022, 08:42:58 AM »

In this particular case their initial choice of candidate had to be dropped in a hurry after some of his internet history* became public knowledge, but all the same...

*And not even the worst bits!

The easy way to solve that issue is to preemptively ban all Vote2012 users from public office, if not polite society.
Wait what ?

I think the poster of that is themselves an occasional contributor Smiley
I was wondering about the voteukt connection to the Wakefield controversy

The initial candidate goes by the name "Armchair Critic" and has trolled the forum for years (since at least the 2010 elections, when he was the Tory election agent for Morley and Outwood) with huge amounts of petty dickery. He was dropped two days before the filing deadline because the media found some of his comments.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1085 on: April 07, 2022, 08:46:28 AM »

Almost but not quite: 'Armchair Critic' is a friend of his and is presently a district councillor. He, however, once posted as 'Wakey Tory Boy' and was even more horrifically unpleasant than 'Armchair Critic'.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1086 on: April 07, 2022, 09:09:58 AM »

It really is cesspit. It's Atlas Forum if it's key demographic was the complete opposite.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1087 on: April 07, 2022, 09:19:04 AM »

I was briefly a moderator there, many years ago. By 'briefly' I mean 'two days' - I modified an antisemitic post by an overt Neo-Nazi (replacing the grotesque comment with a mocking emoji), resulting in a massive outraged backlash from certain users and me getting sacked. I have no regrets.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1088 on: April 11, 2022, 10:33:41 AM »

Imran Khan has been found guilty, meaning a by-election in Wakefield is now all but inevitable.

However, unless Khan resigns, sentencing will need to take place, and appeals likely be exhausted, before such an election occurs. In the event, it’s hard not to see this as Labour’s best chance to pick up a Conservative, Red Wall seat this Parliament.
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Logical
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« Reply #1089 on: April 11, 2022, 11:48:12 AM »

A bad week for Imran Khans around the world.
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YL
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« Reply #1090 on: April 14, 2022, 11:39:17 AM »

Wakefield by-election confirmed: Imran Ahmad Khan is resigning as an MP.  He's not admitting guilt, but saying the appeal process will take a long time and that the constituents shouldn't be without proper representation.
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Torrain
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« Reply #1091 on: April 14, 2022, 11:49:44 AM »
« Edited: April 14, 2022, 11:53:52 AM by Torrain »

It’s the first Tory-held Red Wall seat to go up for election since 2019, and a rare chance for a Labour pick-up.

For those playing the home game - Labour have had a historically bad run in by-elections since Brexit realigned the electorate, starting with the Tory gain in Copeland (former Labour heartland and mining area with big pro-Leave vote), under Theresa May. This by-election provides Labour with their first and best chance to flip the script before 2024.

Wakefield sits a short distance from Leeds in West Yorkshire, and was Labour-held for 90 years until 2019. Khan’s majority was only 3,358 votes, so expect a high profile contest.

Only a short time after a narrow margin in Batley and Spen (which borders Wakefield), saved his bacon, the trajectory of Keir Starmer’s leadership is once more going to be shaped by the whims of a few thousand voters in West Yorkshire.
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TheTide
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« Reply #1092 on: April 14, 2022, 12:10:46 PM »

Liberal gain.
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YL
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« Reply #1093 on: April 14, 2022, 12:46:47 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2022, 01:03:00 PM by YL »

It’s the first Tory-held Red Wall seat to go up for election since 2019, and a rare chance for a Labour pick-up.

For those playing the home game - Labour have had a historically bad run in by-elections since Brexit realigned the electorate, starting with the Tory gain in Copeland (former Labour heartland and mining area with big pro-Leave vote), under Theresa May. This by-election provides Labour with their first and best chance to flip the script before 2024.

Wakefield sits a short distance from Leeds in West Yorkshire, and was Labour-held for 90 years until 2019. Khan’s majority was only 3,358 votes, so expect a high profile contest.

Only a short time after a narrow margin in Batley and Spen (which borders Wakefield), saved his bacon, the trajectory of Keir Starmer’s leadership is once more going to be shaped by the whims of a few thousand voters in West Yorkshire.

It's a rather different sort of seat from Batley & Spen.  (Most are, TBH.)  It has more of a coalfield influence, and the Heavy Woollen District bits (Horbury and Ossett) are much less Muslim than Batley or Heckmondwike.  (The religious segregation in those parts would embarrass much of Northern Ireland.)

The core of Wakefield, the old County Borough, forms four wards of Wakefield Metropolitan Borough, each named as "Wakefield" plus a compass point.  Wakefield South, traditionally a safe Tory ward, is not in this constituency, having been moved to Hemsworth in 1997.  The other three, which are in the constituency, all usually vote Labour, although Wakefield East voted Tory last year.  (The Tory councillor has since fallen out with the party and now sits as an Independent.)

West of Wakefield South is a ward with the rather unhelpful name of Wakefield Rural, which is in the constituency.  This includes the areas of Crigglestone and Durkar which are fairly built up and close to the city, but stretches out over a more rural area with some mining heritage (indeed it includes the National Coal Mining Museum, as well as the Yorkshire Sculpture Park at West Bretton) to the South Yorkshire border.  This ward usually votes Conservative, but did vote Labour in 2012 and 2014.

The rest of the constituency is the towns of Ossett and Horbury, which were in the Normanton constituency from 1997 to 2010, and form the wards of Ossett and Horbury & South Ossett.  Ossett ward has voted for four different parties on current boundaries, being Lib Dem until 2008 and then being a Con/Lab marginal but voting UKIP in 2014; more recently it has been Conservative leaning and currently has three Tory councillors, one of whom posts on Vote UK as "Armchair Critic".  Horbury & South Ossett, where UKIP came close a couple of times but never won, is a little better for Labour, and they held their seat there last year.

Boundaries were rather different further back, and are currently proposed to be very different in the near future, but of course that won't affect this by-election.

Some demographic rankings from the 2011 census, out of 650:

Managers, directors and senior officials: 387
Professional: 492
Associate professional and technical: 354
Administrative and secretarial: 373
Skilled trades: 302
Caring, leisure and other service: 381
Sales and customer service: 285
Process plant and machine operatives: 119
Elementary occupations: 81

No qualifications: 140
Level 4 qualifications (i.e. degree level): 491
Full time students: 455

Deprivation (2016 data): 202

(So: fairly working class, but not strikingly so, and more deprived than the median but again not strikingly so.  Not very educated or professional.)
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somerandomth
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« Reply #1094 on: April 14, 2022, 12:59:44 PM »

Any idea as to when the by-election will be held?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1095 on: April 14, 2022, 01:09:15 PM »

Any idea as to when the by-election will be held?

It can't be held concurrent with the locals...can it?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1096 on: April 14, 2022, 01:09:50 PM »

This has to be a Labour win, in this environment and given the circumstances that the vacancy arose.
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YL
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« Reply #1097 on: April 14, 2022, 01:10:52 PM »

Any idea as to when the by-election will be held?

By-elections caused by resignation can't have the writ moved during recess, so it won't be moved until the middle of next week.  Then you need 21 to 27 working days from the receipt of the writ.  Given the current trend is to get things done quickly, I think that makes Thursday 26 May a likely date, especially as the Thursday in the week after that is a Bank Holiday.  The Tories could delay it for longer than that, though.

It can't be held concurrent with the locals...can it?

No, a couple of weeks too late for that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1098 on: April 14, 2022, 01:32:03 PM »

I suppose the question is whether they would like to get a likely loss* out of the way or to drag things out in the hope that multiple electoral blows don't land in quick succession.

*By-elections are inherently unpredictable things but the combination of a) the circumstances b) the national climate and nature of the seat and c) the state of the local Conservative Association is certainly not... ideal from a government perspective, one would assume.
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Blair
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« Reply #1099 on: April 14, 2022, 05:21:10 PM »

The seat has quite an interesting history; it’s not one of the seats Thatcher won in 1983 (see Darlington, Batley etc) nor is it one of the ones that had huge Labour majorities in say 2010 or 2015.

I suppose the question is whether they would like to get a likely loss* out of the way or to drag things out in the hope that multiple electoral blows don't land in quick succession.

*By-elections are inherently unpredictable things but the combination of a) the circumstances b) the national climate and nature of the seat and c) the state of the local Conservative Association is certainly not... ideal from a government perspective, one would assume.

And (I could be proved wrong on May 5th!) the Labour led council for the city is relatively popular, enough for the deputy leader to run for the seat and not be well shouted down.
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