UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

No one knows the constituency or what might happen next, but it should probably be noted here that another Conservative MP (presently unnamed) has been arrested for rape.

Just for the purposes of this thread - Crispin Blunt (MP for Reigate) has now confirmed that this was him.

Well the Lib-Dems should be the obvious challenger, but this is the part of Surrey where they have done the worst both historically and recently locally.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1758092089806512238?t=tQdNMil7y5S2oX2rSjLhxQ&...

See you all tomorrow then.

[Oryxslayer]

Polls closed.

https://twitter.com/NNorthantsC/status/1758249886632362242?t=qHsC-Q515ETmdJWoVv2...

[Oryxslayer]

Kingswood potentially in an hour. Labour saying they have won it, but frankly, was it ever in doubt?

Also, it will be interesting if Labour surpasses the Con+Reform total in Wellingborough. Yes the Torys had horrible optics there, but it will really blow a hole in the idea that victory is achievable if only the Con voters who are disgruntled right now come home over the course of a campaign as anticipated.

[Oryxslayer]

Kingswood

Sam Bromiley (C‌on) 8675, 34.9%, (-21.3%)
Andrew Brown (Lib-Dem) 861, 3.5%, (-3.4%)
Damian Egan (Labour) 11176, 45%, (+11.5%)
Lorraine Francis (Green) 1450, 5.8%, (+3.4%)
Rupert Lowe (Reform UK) 2578, 10.4%, (New)
Nicholas Wood (UKIP) 129, 0.5%, (New)

[Oryxslayer]

For those living in the U.K here, if Sunak promised to change the election reporting so that it was reported poll by poll rather than only the final result announced, would you vote for Conservative?

I'm asking strictly hypothetically, I don't think Sunak has made any such promise.

Of course, we'd lose the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate standing with all the other candidates, then, but, can't have everything.

That isn't a reporting issue, it's a tabulation issue. The UK has stood firm to hand counts in centralized locations.  Even when it requires multiple days like at certain local elections.  Because of this process,  the detailed results that can be tracked and tabulated through electronic machines requires that much more effort on the part of volunteers during a overnight process. It's why breakdowns of results below the constituency level for the election in question are so hard to find if they happen to exist.

I doubt this is going to change without some clear and proven reason and undeniable justification. Cause it's a tradition that for many does no harm.

[Oryxslayer]

Wellingborough:

Nick the Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony): 217, 0.7%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Ana Gunn (Lib-Dems): 1422, 4.7%, (-3.2%)
Ben Habib (Reform UK): 3919, 13%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Helen Harrison (Conservative): 7408, 24.6%, (-37.6%)
Ankit Love JKNPP Jay Mala Post-Mortem (Perennial Indie): 18, 0.06%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Gen Kitchen (Labour): 13844, 45.9%, (+19.4%)
Alex Merola (Britain First/Indie): 477, 1.6%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Will Morris (Green): 1020, 3.4%, (-0.1%)
Andre Pyne-Bailey (Indie): 172, 0.6%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Marion Turner-Hawes (Indie): 1115, 3.7%, (Did Not Previously Stand)
Kev Watts (Indie): 533, 1.8%, (Did Not Previously Stand)


Labour Gain

[Oryxslayer]

Note that this is a two-Party swing up there for the record books, higher than Selby & Ainsty but still just below Dudly West from 1994. However, it also exposes some of the deficient in that calculation, since its clear a bunch of the Tory vote scattered rather than go to Labour. That's of course cause of the specific awfulness of the Tories in these peculiar circumstances, running a awful candidate and not really putting up a fight.

[Oryxslayer]

All this chaos is making me wonder if the end result will just be a normal-ish result,  cause those voters who bother to participate will be under the impression of "Well if everyone sucks..."

Now the most likely result, at least in my eyes, remains a turnout hilariously far below anything comparable in recent memory, and the remaining electorate is dominated by the minority of constituents who actually like Galloway. But it would be interesting if all the candidate troubles cause voter behavior to "circle back to the start." Of course this won't stop the Labour candidate being immediately out of the caucus, like Kevin Voung who somehow still won for the Canadian libs in 2021.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah, the narrowness of Galloway's path, is what stuck out from Ben Walker's New Statesman article on Rochdale - his vote total, post-Labour expulsion, has always run under the total Muslim vote share:

It’s not a one-to-one comparison (he seems to pick up some white working class populists too, while losing a portion of the Muslim vote to mainstream parties), but a pretty important benchmark, given the comparison to seats like Bradford West.

The lack of an official Labour candidate or frontbench-led campaign against Galloway does throw out some of the conventional wisdom though.

There's the legitimate possibility - and perhaps one of the better outcomes for Labour - of turnout just being far,  far, lower than anything comparable in history. In which case Galloways vote would probably overshoot the Muslim population, but everyone would be aware that Labour could brush him aside if they actually got their campaign together.

[Oryxslayer]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

One has to imagine he's now going to be approached by the Greens for some seat, since they basically backed him here with results.

[Oryxslayer]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

One has to imagine he's now going to be approached by the Greens for some seat, since they basically backed him here with results.

They backed the guy who got 1.5%.

Oops, got te indies confused. My bad.

[Oryxslayer]

Does Tully now run in the GE with his numbers being as good as they were?

One has to imagine he's now going to be approached by the Greens for some seat, since they basically backed him here with results.

They backed the guy who got 1.5%.

Oops, got te indies confused. My bad.

The Greens disowned the official Green candidate, didn't they?

Yeah and they endorsed a different indie. I thought Tully was that indie for a moment before rechecking the Teale guide.

[Oryxslayer]

Well it would be a free Lib-Dem incumbent, if there is actually enough time for a By-Election before the GE.