Goldman Sachs predicts U.S. economy will grow 8% this year

[Tintrlvr]

The 4% unemployment rate forecast doesn't seem far off from where we're actually headed.

We're now at 4.2% unemployment with a month to go. Might even beat the GS forecast.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

That's the Biden economy, Jack.

No, but seriously though, this is probably gonna win the Democrats a 2002 of our own next year & then Biden a re-election victory. Feel free to mock this all you want for right now, but be sure to bookmark it & bump it on the morning of Nov. 6th, 2024. I'll be vindicated in full. If not, then I'll gladly change my avatar to whatever Atlas Talk Elections wills it to be for however long it wills it to be that.

A bull market would assure Joey's re-election chances however you don't think the GOP base isn't gonna be much more riled up for the midterms than the Ds were in 02? W's rally-around-the-flag effort post-9/11 didn't really wear off until Iraq started going sour, our nation's far too polarized for that now.

Eh, not really, or at least not as of yet anyway, what with Biden's approval still remaining comfortably above 50%, with 75% of the Republican rank-&-file having just supported the ARP, & now with a similar proportion thereof expected to do the same for the infrastructure package (so, y'know, the congressional Republican strategy of full-on obstructionism just appears to be working absolute wonders for them in terms of ingratiating themselves with the voters who they're gonna need in order to maintain their - & gain more - wins). At the very least, a motivated Republican base won't be as big an issue for the Democrats in 2022 as it was for us in 2010 & 2014, given that at least some of that can now be canceled out by the Democrats' having converted an obviously not-insignificant amount of suburban former-swing voters into Democratic-leaning voters who are motivated enough to actually turn-out in midterm elections.

Oh the Dems will win the NPV in ‘22 however the problem is that needs to at least be a 52-47 win for them to make substantial gains. Rs always come home. I’m glad you’rs pointing out that the Ds gains with suburban voters under 50  gives them a better chance than conventional wisdom would imply. The conservative suburbanites who still subscribe to dog-whistle politics are being supplanted by the younger social liberals who came up under the failures of W and went hard for Dems in 06/08. The college student with a Hope and Change poster on the wall is now married with 2 kids. There’s a reason Biden’s approval rating is ~60-63% with self-described moderates, that’s exactly what Ds need to get to 50+1%

Yet it’s still hard to count out the GOP’s ability to pump the base with their usual tactics. The question for 2022 is whether full employment and rising wages will be enough will be enough to both keep D turnout high and keep the White independents which were crucial in 2018/2020 in their column.

Least overconfident Atlas poster

[Libertas Vel Mors]

That's the Biden economy, Jack.

No, but seriously though, this is probably gonna win the Democrats a 2002 of our own next year & then Biden a re-election victory. Feel free to mock this all you want for right now, but be sure to bookmark it & bump it on the morning of Nov. 6th, 2024. I'll be vindicated in full. If not, then I'll gladly change my avatar to whatever Atlas Talk Elections wills it to be for however long it wills it to be that.

A bull market would assure Joey's re-election chances however you don't think the GOP base isn't gonna be much more riled up for the midterms than the Ds were in 02? W's rally-around-the-flag effort post-9/11 didn't really wear off until Iraq started going sour, our nation's far too polarized for that now.

Eh, not really, or at least not as of yet anyway, what with Biden's approval still remaining comfortably above 50%, with 75% of the Republican rank-&-file having just supported the ARP, & now with a similar proportion thereof expected to do the same for the infrastructure package (so, y'know, the congressional Republican strategy of full-on obstructionism just appears to be working absolute wonders for them in terms of ingratiating themselves with the voters who they're gonna need in order to maintain their - & gain more - wins). At the very least, a motivated Republican base won't be as big an issue for the Democrats in 2022 as it was for us in 2010 & 2014, given that at least some of that can now be canceled out by the Democrats' having converted an obviously not-insignificant amount of suburban former-swing voters into Democratic-leaning voters who are motivated enough to actually turn-out in midterm elections.

Oh the Dems will win the NPV in ‘22 however the problem is that needs to at least be a 52-47 win for them to make substantial gains. Rs always come home. I’m glad you’rs pointing out that the Ds gains with suburban voters under 50  gives them a better chance than conventional wisdom would imply. The conservative suburbanites who still subscribe to dog-whistle politics are being supplanted by the younger social liberals who came up under the failures of W and went hard for Dems in 06/08. The college student with a Hope and Change poster on the wall is now married with 2 kids. There’s a reason Biden’s approval rating is ~60-63% with self-described moderates, that’s exactly what Ds need to get to 50+1%

Yet it’s still hard to count out the GOP’s ability to pump the base with their usual tactics. The question for 2022 is whether full employment and rising wages will be enough will be enough to both keep D turnout high and keep the White independents which were crucial in 2018/2020 in their column.

Least overconfident Atlas poster

A worse poster would've fully drank the Kool-Aid and a better one wouldn't have drank it at all. I'm right in the sweet spot, baby!

Pretty sure the sweet spot isn't drinking it at all.

[Tintrlvr]

The 4% unemployment rate forecast doesn't seem far off from where we're actually headed.

We're now at 4.2% unemployment with a month to go. Might even beat the GS forecast.

And we did beat the GS forecast - 3.9% unemployment as of December. I feel like those criticizing this report as too optimistic might eat at least some of their words (true, growth was not at the level GS predicted despite that).

[rosin]

https://www.axios.com/goldman-sachs-us-economy-grow-8-per-cent-2021-eb7e1d84-b6fa-483a-9e19-37a7faddadc0.html

"We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.

What were they smoking

[Make America Grumpy Again]

Every economic report has fallen well short of expectations. I don't expect this poll to be any different.

[Bootes Void]

https://www.axios.com/goldman-sachs-us-economy-grow-8-per-cent-2021-eb7e1d84-b6fa-483a-9e19-37a7faddadc0.html

"We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.

What were they smoking

The unemployment rate did drop to below 4% for what’s it worth