KY-Sen 2022: Charles Booker in
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  KY-Sen 2022: Charles Booker in
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Author Topic: KY-Sen 2022: Charles Booker in  (Read 9236 times)
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: March 15, 2021, 04:34:46 PM »

I'm inclined to start this at Likely R. Paul isn't as strong as he appears. He's a lot like Matt Bevin would be if he were a Senator, very weak, and very beatable with the right candidate in the right year. I'm not sure Booker is that candidate, and I'm not sure 2022 is that year.

Likely R, closer to Safe R than Lean R.

You're right that Paul isn't exactly the strongest incumbent.

But otherwise, no. Just no.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #26 on: March 15, 2021, 04:36:12 PM »

Safe R -> Likely R just without the McGrath amounts of money contesting the race.

I wouldn’t be so sure on that. Rand Paul is also one of the best known senators in the country.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2021, 04:42:08 PM »

The morons on twitter will certainly fall for the polls again showing a "tight race" between the incumbent Republican Senator vs the Dem Challenger and waste donate their money to Booker. Then come November 2022 and Paul wins re-election by 26%. It's so comical how gullible the resistance dems are on twitter.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: March 15, 2021, 05:37:46 PM »

The morons on twitter will certainly fall for the polls again showing a "tight race" between the incumbent Republican Senator vs the Dem Challenger and waste donate their money to Booker. Then come November 2022 and Paul wins re-election by 26%. It's so comical how gullible the resistance dems are on twitter.

I think Booker's grifting machine won’t run nearly as smoothly as McGrift's because he’ll have to compete with professional grifters in OH and IA (especially if Grassley retires), both of which will be hyped up as marquee races that will have an ungodly amount of $$$ thrown at them (especially after polling shows a dead heat with 10% 'undecideds'), and because the Democratic base simply doesn’t despise Paul as much as McConnell. Still will be a relative success if I had to guess, though.
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VAR
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« Reply #29 on: March 15, 2021, 05:41:17 PM »

The morons on twitter will certainly fall for the polls again showing a "tight race" between the incumbent Republican Senator vs the Dem Challenger and waste donate their money to Booker. Then come November 2022 and Paul wins re-election by 26%. It's so comical how gullible the resistance dems are on twitter.

I think Booker's grifting machine won’t run nearly as smoothly as McGrift's because he’ll have to compete with professional grifters in OH and IA (especially if Grassley retires), both of which will be hyped up as marquee races that will have an ungodly amount of $$$ thrown at them (especially after polling shows a dead heat with 10% 'undecideds'), and because the Democratic base simply doesn’t despise Paul as much as McConnell. Still will be a relative success if I had to guess, though.

Goddess Abby is not a “grifter.” Delete your account.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #30 on: March 15, 2021, 05:44:19 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2021, 05:47:20 PM by MT Treasurer »

Goddess Abby is not a “grifter.” Delete your account.

Obviously I was talking about the Fink's R 'opponent,' who will fool gullible Twitter MAGA bots into donating to his campaign.
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Roblox
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2021, 05:51:09 PM »

Goddess Abby is not a “grifter.” Delete your account.

Obviously I was talking about the Fink's R 'opponent,' who will fool gullible Twitter MAGA bots into donating to his campaign.

Indeed. It was hilarious watching them donate to a candidate that didn't even have a chance of breaking 30% against strong candidate Fink.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #32 on: March 15, 2021, 06:28:45 PM »

Another example of democrats potentially spending hundreds of millions of dollars in a race that won't even be remotely competitive, even if polls will lead us to believe it is.

The race remains safe R. And considering this is against a progressive democrat instead of a moderate or blue dog democrat, this could be Rand Paul's biggest win yet.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #33 on: March 15, 2021, 06:29:24 PM »

Safe R. Stop pretending otherwise, Atlas.
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Pericles
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« Reply #34 on: March 15, 2021, 06:33:10 PM »

Democrats need to be rigidly focused on their few viable targets, a blue wave isn't a realistic possibility. WI, PA and NC. FL is unlikely but it's justifiable to try there because it's only Trump +3% and it has been a swing state. Other seats like OH are very difficult, and only should be tried if the polling shows actual Democratic leads outside the margin of error, not just ties.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #35 on: March 15, 2021, 06:49:35 PM »

Safe R. But, eh why not? It'll just end up being a matter of whether he can lose by less than McGrath or not, and maybe if he does, it'll be enough to vindicate him about losing the primary to her in 2020.
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #36 on: March 15, 2021, 07:26:18 PM »

Anyone who asks about how Elliott County will vote in this matchup gets a complimentary death glare from me.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #37 on: March 15, 2021, 07:47:33 PM »

Would be glad to see him as a candidate, but he’d have no chance of beating Paul (nor would any Democrat, though.)
What about Steve Beshear?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2021, 07:51:06 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2021, 08:01:08 PM by Roll Roons »

Would be glad to see him as a candidate, but he’d have no chance of beating Paul (nor would any Democrat, though.)
What about Steve Beshear?

No. Unless the Kentucky GOP somehow nominates their version of Roy Moore, this race is Safe R. End of story.

Look, nothing is forever in politics. One day, Democrats will win a Kentucky Senate election again. But barring very unusual circumstances, that day will not be in this decade.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: March 15, 2021, 08:32:14 PM »

This is certainly wave insurence but the wave of Retirement has a damaging impact on the Rs.

I wouldn't count out D's chances as I said before except for FL, that goes for every Senate and Gov seat, the Rs are making the mistake of Filibustering a Biden agenda that have broad support and complaining about deficits in a Health Crisis not a normal Recession..
.
Rand Paul said that AA will  be HS dropouts due to raising minimum wage, no they wont, we haven't had high school dropouta since 1990s when teen pregnancy was on the rise
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #40 on: March 15, 2021, 10:42:08 PM »

Another example of democrats potentially spending hundreds of millions of dollars in a race that won't even be remotely competitive, even if polls will lead us to believe it is.

The race remains safe R. And considering this is against a progressive democrat instead of a moderate or blue dog democrat, this could be Rand Paul's biggest win yet.

Oh wait I forgot Paul might be retiring due to his support for term limits.....

Eh well I guess that goes for any republican then.
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jfern
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« Reply #41 on: March 16, 2021, 12:01:27 AM »

Resistance wine moms who think the best way to take back the Senate is to defeat the majority leader are going to be asleep, so no $90 million for Booker. 
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #42 on: March 16, 2021, 12:03:56 AM »

The morons on twitter will certainly fall for the polls again showing a "tight race" between the incumbent Republican Senator vs the Dem Challenger and waste donate their money to Booker. Then come November 2022 and Paul wins re-election by 26%. It's so comical how gullible the resistance dems are on twitter.

I think Booker's grifting machine won’t run nearly as smoothly as McGrift's because he’ll have to compete with professional grifters in OH and IA (especially if Grassley retires), both of which will be hyped up as marquee races that will have an ungodly amount of $$$ thrown at them (especially after polling shows a dead heat with 10% 'undecideds'), and because the Democratic base simply doesn’t despise Paul as much as McConnell. Still will be a relative success if I had to guess, though.
I mean at least Tim Ryan would have an outside shot. Granted, that shot is like, 5% or less, but it's better than any KY dem at this point
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
FranciscoM97
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« Reply #43 on: March 16, 2021, 03:42:10 AM »

Rand Paul is a weak candidate, it's in a very vulnerable position, Booker can bring progressives and secret republican socialists to turnout for him, I would say Tilt R, I expect democrats spending big money on this race, it's going to be too close to call
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JG
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« Reply #44 on: March 16, 2021, 07:05:00 AM »

I don't get the problem with Booker running. Of course, he won't win. But should the Democrats just not run anyone in deep red states?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #45 on: March 16, 2021, 07:28:45 AM »

Before I was thinking this was safe R, but these people really made some interesting insights as to why Booker could win.





See, McGrath was too far right, that's why she lost by 20 points while Trump won by 26. Also, I just lost half my brain cells.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #46 on: March 16, 2021, 08:25:45 AM »

Safe R -> Likely R just without the McGrath amounts of money contesting the race.

Stop. Unless you're being sarcastic, this race is Safe R, period.

Oh I don't think there's any conceivable scenario in which Rand loses, but I think Booker could do better than McGrath for sure and possibly better than Grimes in '14/Gray in '16 (40-42%) but his ceiling probably no higher than maybe 44% at best.

Booker would certainly get less than 40%.

If democrats nominate him I could see Paul getting a larger margin of victory than any other republican senatorial candidate got over the past 2 decades.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #47 on: March 16, 2021, 10:02:41 AM »

It's kind of funny how everyone is agreeing this is Safe R no matter who ends up running and pretend like Atlas is mostly in disagreement with that assumption while no serious post suggests a competitive race. Mine was clearly ironic, and well, there is OC. I think we've learned the lesson now, and hope it stays this way once a close poll with 20% undecideds comes out.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #48 on: March 16, 2021, 10:05:33 AM »

He should wait until Yarmuth retires, unless the state legislatures decides to gerrymander Yarmuth out.
I don't think that's possible, considering his district could be VRA protected.

Louisville isn’t nearly Black enough to be VRA protected. Even if it was, it’s not electing a Black representative. The main obstacle against drawing Yarmouth out is that protection in the KY constitution mandating Jefferson county get its own district.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #49 on: March 16, 2021, 10:19:12 AM »

Safe R -> Likely R just without the McGrath amounts of money contesting the race.

Stop. Unless you're being sarcastic, this race is Safe R, period.

Oh I don't think there's any conceivable scenario in which Rand loses, but I think Booker could do better than McGrath for sure and possibly better than Grimes in '14/Gray in '16 (40-42%) but his ceiling probably no higher than maybe 44% at best.

Booker would certainly get less than 40%.

If democrats nominate him I could see Paul getting a larger margin of victory than any other republican senatorial candidate got over the past 2 decades.
So you think Rand Paul will win by a bigger margin than Jeff Sessions did in 2014?
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