If you had to flip One Senate Seat within 10% to the other party in every cycle

[OSR stands with Israel]

Which ones would you choose . For me this would be my list :

2020: Espy Defeats Hyde-Smith(MS)
2018:  McCaskill defeats Hawley(MO)
2016: Bayh defeats Young(IN)
2014: Hagan Defeats Tillis(NC)
2012: Carmona Defeats Flake(AZ)
2010: Coakley Defeats Brown(MA)
2008: Martin Defeats Chambliss(GA)
2006: Ford Defeats Corker(TN)
2004: Mongiardo Defeats Bunning(KY)
2002: Cleland Beats Chambliss(GA)
2000: Robb Beats Allen(VA)

[Xing]

2000: Ashcroft
2002: Hutchinson
2004: Holt
2006: Kean
2008: Coleman
2010: Fiorina
2012: Berg
2014: Gillespie
2016: Ayotte
2018: Morrisey
2020: Ronchetti

[Mr. Smith]

1994: Huffington defeats Dianne Feinstein [CA]
1996: Larry Pressler re-elected over Tim Johnson[SD]
1998: Lauch Faircloth re-elected over John Edwards [NC]
2000: Spencer Abraham re-elected over Debbie Stabenow [MI]
2002: Tim Hutchison re-elected Mark Pryor [AR]
2004: Pete Coors defeats Ken Salazar [CO]
2006: Tom Kean defeats Bob Menendez [NJ]
2008: John Kennedy defeats Mary Landrieu [LA]
2010: Christine O'Donnell defeats Chris Coons [DE]
2012: Richard Mourdock defeats Joe Donnelly [IN]
2014: Scott Brown defeats Jeanne Shaheen [NH]
2016: Kelly Ayotte defeats Maggie Hassan [NH]
2018: Pat Morrissey defeats Joe Manchin [WV]
2020: Mark Rochetti defeats Ben Lujan [NM]

[Schiff for Senate]

2020: Ronchetti (NM) I guess? I don't know a whole lot about him, but all other Democrats said him, so presumably he's a saner or more moderate Democrat? That and the fact that Lujan had a stroke and it'd perhaps be better if he lost and didn't have the stress of being a senator
2018: Definitely Morrisey (WV). Manchin breaks with the party on enough stuff - understandably so - and it's a Trump+40 state anyway, so in 2024 it'll go red regardless. Makes sense for a Trump+40 state to have a GOP senator, and anyway Manchin is a wild card on enough things. I might've considered flipping NJ given that Menendez is totally corrupt, but it wasn't within 10 points anyway.
2016: Ayotte (NH), probably. Only 3 options here anyway.
2014: It's either Gillespie (VA) or Brown (NH). I'll go with Brown. On both the Democratic and Republican sides, it seems NH would have the better candidates though.
2012: Berg (ND), for the same reason as Morrisey in 2018.
2010: Rossi (WA). Punish Murray for her insider trading.
2008: Coleman (MN), for obvious reasons.
2006: Kean (NJ) for sure. Corrupt Bob doesn't belong in the Senate, and Kean is clearly one of the better and more moderate/pragmatic Republicans.
2004: Only one choice here...Coors (CO).

[GoldenMainer]

2020: Espy (MS)
2018: O'Rourke (TX)
2016: Feingold (WI)
2014: Hagan (NC)
2012: Carmona (AZ)
2010: Feingold (WI)
2008: Lunsford (KY)

[MargieCat]

2020: MJ Hegar defeats Cornyn
2018: Beto O'Rourke defeats Cruz
2016: Feingold defeats Johnson
2014: Kay Hagan defeats Tillis
2012: Rich Carmona defeats Jeff Flake
2010: Joe Sestak defeats Pat Toomey

[Dr. MB]

If we're going Democrats

2020: MJ Hegar defeats John Cornyn (Texas)
2018: Beto O'Rourke defeats Ted Cruz (Texas)
2016: Russ Feingold defeats Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
2014: Mark Udall defeats Cory Gardner (Alaska)
2012: Shelley Berkley defeats Dean Heller (Nevada)
2010: Russ Feingold defeats Ron Johnson (Wisconsin)
2008: Bruce Lunsford defeats Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)
2006: Harold Ford defeats Bob Corker (Tennessee)

Republicans
2020: Cory Gardner defeats John Hickenlooper (Colorado)
2018: Martha McSally defeats Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona)
2016: Kelly Ayotte defeats Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire)
2014: Ed Gillespie defeats Mark Warner (Virginia)
2012: Rick Berg defeats Heidi Heitkamp (North Dakota)
2010: Dino Rossi defeats Patty Murray (Washington)
2008: John Kennedy defeats Mary Landrieu (Louisiana)
2006: Lincoln Chafee defeats Sheldon Whitehouse (Rhode Island)

[Schiff for Senate]

2020: MJ Hegar defeats Cornyn
2018: Beto O'Rourke defeats Cruz
2016: Feingold defeats Johnson
2014: Kay Hagan defeats Tillis
2012: Rich Carmona defeats Jeff Flake
2010: Joe Sestak defeats Pat Toomey

TO THE OTHER PARTY. So, if you’re a Democrat, which presumably you are, you have to flip one seat Republican in each cycle. For instance, in 2018, you would have to flip one seat Republican, so you could choose to flip WV and have Morrisey win rather than Manchin.

There is a thread for the converse (flipping 1 senate seat to your party in each cycle), which is what you did in your post, though: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=518575.0

[Schiff for Senate]

Keeping tally for what Democrats said:

2020: 80% NM, 20% CO
2018: 80% WV, 20% AZ
2016: 100% NH
2014: 80% NH, 20% VA
2012: 60% ND, 20% IN, 20% MA
2010: 60% WA, 20% CA, 20% DE
2008: 60% MN, 40% LA
2006: 80% NJ, 20% RI

[Continential]

2020: Ronchetti
2018: Morrissey
2016: Ayotte
2014: Brown
2012: Brown
2010: Rossi
2008: Coleman
2006: Kean
2004: Coors
2002: Thune

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1988: CT
1990: skip
1992: CO
1994: CA
1996: MT
1998: NC
2000: MO
2002: AR
2004: CO
2006: NJ
2008: AK
2010: CO
2012: MO
2014: VA
2016: NH
2018: AZ
2020: CO

[Zenobiyl]

2020: Ernst loses to Greenfield (trends will likely sink Greenfield in 26)
2018: Espy beats Smith (Espy is moderate)
2016: Kander beats Blunt (I like Kander, and its a one-term rental anyways)
2014: Begich beats Sullivan (1-term rental most likely)
2012: Berkeley beats Heller
2010: Giannoulis beats Kirk
2008: Musgrove beats Wicker
2006: Ford Jr. beats Corker
2004: Mongiardo beats Bunning
2002: Clement beats Alexander
2000: Schweitzer beats Conrad

[Schiff for Senate]

2020: Ronchetti
2018: Hugin
2016: Ayotte
2014: Brown
2012: Brown
2010: Rossi
2008: Coleman
2006: Kean
2004: Coors
2002: Thune

Menendez won by double digits, so this answer isn't valid.

[Continential]

2020: Ronchetti
2018: Hugin
2016: Ayotte
2014: Brown
2012: Brown
2010: Rossi
2008: Coleman
2006: Kean
2004: Coors
2002: Thune

Menendez won by double digits, so this answer isn't valid.

Fixed.

[Zedonathin2020]

Every Senate election since I was born:

2020: Sara Gideon defeats Susan Collins

2018: Beto O’Rourke defeats Ted Cruz

2016: Jason Kander defeats Roy Blunt

2014: Mark Begich defeats Dan Sullivan

2012: Shelley Berkley defeats Dean Heller

2010: Alexi Giannoulias defeats Mark Kirk

2008: Bruce Lunsford defeats Mitch McConnell

2006: Harold Ford, Jr. defeats Bob Corker

2004: Inez Tenenbaum defeats Jim DeMint

[OSR stands with Israel]

Every Senate election since I was born:

2020: Sara Gideon defeats Susan Collins

2018: Beto O’Rourke defeats Ted Cruz

2016: Jason Kander defeats Roy Blunt

2014: Mark Begich defeats Dan Sullivan

2012: Shelley Berkley defeats Dean Heller

2010: Alexi Giannoulias defeats Mark Kirk

2008: Bruce Lunsford defeats Mitch McConnell

2006: Harold Ford, Jr. defeats Bob Corker

2004: Inez Tenenbaum defeats Jim DeMint

"Other Party" meaning to not your party . This was meant to be a direct contrast with another thread about flipping it to your party

[David Hume]

Which ones would you choose . For me this would be my list :

2020: Espy Defeats Hyde-Smith(MS)
2018:  McCaskill defeats Hawley(MO)
2016: Bayh defeats Young(IN)
2014: Hagan Defeats Tillis(NC)
2012: Carmona Defeats Flake(AZ)
2010: Coakley Defeats Brown(MA)
2008: Martin Defeats Chambliss(GA)
2006: Ford Defeats Corker(TN)
2004: Mongiardo Defeats Bunning(KY)
2002: Cleland Beats Chambliss(GA)
2000: Robb Beats Allen(VA)

2020: Cindy Hyde-Smith lost to Mike Espy (one term rental absolutely) MS
2018: Cindy Hyde-Smith lost to Mike Espy (two year rental) MS
2016: Todd Young lost to Evan Bayh (one term rental very likely) IN
2014: Cory Gardner lost to   Mark Udall (one term rental) CO
2012: Jeff Flake lost to Richard Carmona (more likely to flip this seat than NV) AZ
2010: Scott Brown (three year rental) MA
2008: Saxby Chambliss (one term rental) GA
2006: Bob Corker TN

[OSR stands with Israel]

Which ones would you choose . For me this would be my list :

2020: Espy Defeats Hyde-Smith(MS)
2018:  McCaskill defeats Hawley(MO)
2016: Bayh defeats Young(IN)
2014: Hagan Defeats Tillis(NC)
2012: Carmona Defeats Flake(AZ)
2010: Coakley Defeats Brown(MA)
2008: Martin Defeats Chambliss(GA)
2006: Ford Defeats Corker(TN)
2004: Mongiardo Defeats Bunning(KY)
2002: Cleland Beats Chambliss(GA)
2000: Robb Beats Allen(VA)

strategically unwise.

My version:
2020: Jim Inhofe lost to Abby Broyles (one term rental absolutely) OK
2018: Cindy Hyde-Smith lost to Mike Espy (two year rental) MS
2016: James Lankford lost to Mike Workman (one term rental absolutely) OK
2014: James Lankford lost to Connie Johnson (two year rental) OK
2012: Orrin Hatch lost to Scott Howell (one term rental absolutely) UT
2010: Tom Coburn  lost to   Jim Rogers (one term rental absolutely) OK
2008: John Barrasso lost to Nick Carter (two year rental) WY
2006: Orrin Hatch   Pete Ashdown UT
2004: Bob Bennett   Paul Van Dam UT

Many of those races were not within 10 points though

[David Hume]

Which ones would you choose . For me this would be my list :

2020: Espy Defeats Hyde-Smith(MS)
2018:  McCaskill defeats Hawley(MO)
2016: Bayh defeats Young(IN)
2014: Hagan Defeats Tillis(NC)
2012: Carmona Defeats Flake(AZ)
2010: Coakley Defeats Brown(MA)
2008: Martin Defeats Chambliss(GA)
2006: Ford Defeats Corker(TN)
2004: Mongiardo Defeats Bunning(KY)
2002: Cleland Beats Chambliss(GA)
2000: Robb Beats Allen(VA)

strategically unwise.

My version:
2020: Jim Inhofe lost to Abby Broyles (one term rental absolutely) OK
2018: Cindy Hyde-Smith lost to Mike Espy (two year rental) MS
2016: James Lankford lost to Mike Workman (one term rental absolutely) OK
2014: James Lankford lost to Connie Johnson (two year rental) OK
2012: Orrin Hatch lost to Scott Howell (one term rental absolutely) UT
2010: Tom Coburn  lost to Jim Rogers (one term rental absolutely) OK
2008: John Barrasso lost to Nick Carter (two year rental) WY
2006: Orrin Hatch Pete Ashdown UT
2004: Bob Bennett Paul Van Dam UT

Many of those races were not within 10 points though

My bad, did not notice 10 points.

[MillennialModerate]

Doing within 10% narrows it down so I’ll just change it up a bit 


2013 • MA • Ed Markey
2014 • MA • Ed Markey
2016 • OR • Ron Wyden
2018 • MN • Tina Smith
2020 • MA/MI • Ed Markey/Gary Peters

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

Democrats:

2020: Would strongly prefer for Harrison to defeat Graham (SC) to take out the trash but since that margin was barely above 10%, I'll pick Espy defeating Hyde-Smith instead
2018: Espy defeats Hyde-Smith (MS) red state moderate and seems cool to see MS have a black senator
2016: Bayh defeats Young (IN) process of elimination
2014: Nunn defeats Perdue (GA) at least we can have an old school Georgia democrat instead of Ossoff today and may have been defeated in 2020 anyway
2012: Carmona defeats Flake (AZ) process of elimination
2010: Giannoulias defeats Kirk (IL) wasn't a really valuable gain
2008: Musgrove defeats Wicker (MS) moderate and easy 2014 gain
2006: Ford defeats Corker (TN) easy pickup in 2012 and didn't really deserve to lose
2004: Mongiardo defeats Bunning (KY) seems like a fine ol' Kentucky Democrat
2002: Shaheen defeats Sununu (NH) maybe his son would be motivated to defeat Shaheen today
2000: Schweitzer defeats Burns (MT) process of elimination plus long term considerations
1998: Moseley-Braun defeats Fitzgerald (IL) her incumbency in 2004 likely stops Obama
1996: Bryant defeats Hutchinson (AR) got defeated in 2002 anyway
1994: Wynia defeats Grams (MN) process of elimination
1992: Sanford defeats Faircloth (NC) process of elimination
1990: Sloane defeats McConnell (KY) Old School KY Dem option

[Pres Mike]

2020: Sara Gideon win. She would be a reliable progressive vote I think
2018: Beto beating Cruz.
2016: Feingold beat Johnson since Democrats are struggling to flip this seat in 2022
2014: Kay Hagan wins re-election

Big changes...

These flips gives Biden 54 seats to work with. We that, Democrats probably kill the filibuster and pass voting rights, statehood for DC and PR and the 6 trillion BBB plan.

That also means Democrats keep the senate in 2024 even if Republicans flip OH, WV and Montana. And if Republicans win the presidency as well.

Long term, its good to have incumbents in TX and NC. Plus having an incument senator probably helps Biden win NC in 2020.

(I was split on 2018. I think Josh Hawley is more dangerous long term but Missouri was going to flip eventually. Texas is better long term and Beto would be more progressive than Claire ever would be)

[S019]

2020: Loeffler defeats Warnock
2018: Morrisey defeats Manchin
2016: Glenn defeats Bennet
2014: Brown defeats Shaheen
2012: Brown defeats Warren
2010: Rossi defeats Murray
2008: Coleman defeats Franken
2006: Chaffee defeats Whitehouse
2004: Coors defeats Salazar
2002: Terrell defeats Landrieu
2000: Ashcroft defeats Carnahan